Bourgeois to the Rays

Desmond Jennings has a broken finger and Jason Bourgeois is on his way to join the Rays in Arizona. The Rays are doing some razzle-dazzle with rosters to pull this off. But Bourgeois in now on the 40-man.

Good Luck!!!

Sunday in the Park

USPS

Season: 73-43; Home Games Remaining: 13

Wrap, Box, Herald-Sun, G’Braves

The Braves’ Yohan Flande found his groove last night, and the Bulls never came close to figuring him out. He pitched eight very solid innings and if his pitch count had not gotten up to 109, he likely would have gone the distance. The Bulls didn’t even get on base until the 4th inning when Tim Beckham hit a double. Beckham eventually scored, but that was to be the Bulls’ only run of the game.

On the other hand, what a great evening for baseball. A nice breeze, not too warm, a couple of quirky plays, the Bulls and Braves in Negro League uniforms. Fun day at the park.

This was Negro League day and both teams wore the uniforms of the era (to the confusion of the PA announcer who kept getting numbers wrong all night). I wish that somehow baseball could find an even more impressive way to honor and tell the story of that era. I appreciate the conflict — how do you show respect for something that never should have happened in the first place? That’s hard to ignore. And yet these gentlemen (several of whom were at the park last night generously signing autographs) were superb athletes who surely loved the game. And if the game should have given them more, well, I just don’t know how to fix that except by shaking their hands and hoping that they at least had some fun playing baseball.

Matchup: Red Wings vs. Bulls

The Rochester Red Wings are the Minnesota Twins' Triple-A team and they have recently climbed into first place in the North Division. They are at the start of an eleven day road trip (we thought the Bulls have some long treks!). What is much more important, however, is that one of our all-time favorite Durham Bulls will be back in the DBAP — Ray Olmedo. Olmedo has probably put in more time on International League diamonds than any other active player. In addition to his two seasons as a Durham Bull (2009 and 2011) he has time in four seasons with the Louisville Bats, and single seasons with the Syracuse Chiefs, the Columbus Clippers, and the Charlotte Knights. Then there was his year with the Nashville Sounds, who are in the Pacific Coast League. That’s 11 seasons in Triple A baseball! He’s having a pretty good year. He’s hit two home runs (that’s about average, maybe a little above). He’s batting .228 over 87 games. He’s divided his time at 2B, SS, and 3B almost in equal portions. He has not been on the pitchers' mound since his one, and only, appearance for 2 innings with the Durham Bulls in 2009. He got the win. He may have the best winning percentage of any player in Durham Bulls history.

Meanwhile Nuke keeps on finding creative ways to lose in his races against Crash and Annie. Last night he was well ahead of them both when an irate groundskeeper tackled him and Crash piled on. Annie blithely skipped by to win.

Back in Town

Season: 73-42; Home Games Left: 14

Box, Wrap, Herald-Sun

Well, B.J. didn’t make it to Durham (wonder if he ever paid that speeding ticket?). Instead, he was in Philadelphia going 1-5 in a Braves win over the Phillies.

The Gwinnett Braves might have been able to use him. They chipped away at Mike Montgomery at the start of the game, but not nearly enough to balance their own awful defense and the Bulls' hitting.

Nice to have the Bulls back in town, but the eight games left in this stretch means the season is almost over. If you want to take a look at the best team in baseball, this is it.

I am having a lot of fun watching young Kevin Kiermaier. He’s making the most of his promotion to AAA baseball: chasing flyballs down, throwing the ball in with authority, stealing bases, getting hits. I think the Bulls have found their 2014 center fielder and we fans are in for some interesting baseball from this young man.

Check out the box score and take a look at the across the board performance of the Bulls’ starting lineup. Everyone except Leslie Anderson got at least one hit. Most of the hitters are near or above .300 (and Vince Belnome wasn’t in the lineup). So when a pitcher starts to struggle, as Gwinnett’s Kameron Loe did in the just the 2nd inning, they pounce.

Brandon Gomes seems recovered. Nice inning last night.

Mentioning relievers: The Bulls’ relief corps hasn’t allowed an earned run in the last four games (11⅔ innings).

Outside the game —

• Adam Sobsey has his thoughts on the Bulls' season as they came back to town over at Bull City Summer.
• Our fellow Razorback and fun-to-listen-to radio commentator, Scott Poser, has interesting profile over at DNA of Sports.

Nice Nights in Toledo

Wrap, Box,Toledo Blade

Season: 71-41; Trip: 4-2
Wrap, Box, Toledo Blade

The Durham Bulls are an astonishing 30 games over .500 at the end of July. One of the key players in this great run is Leslie Anderson and he was the man last night. He came to bat in the 8th with the score tied, the bases loaded, and one out. He hit a double that scored two runs and won the game.

Infielder Ryan Roberts, who might as well just leave duffel bags with both teams’ equipment guys, went back to St. Petersburg (and played third base for the Rays last night, 0-3, 3 Ks) for a few days when Rays' pitcher Matt Moore went on the DL. Evan Frey, who’d been in Montgomery, came back to the Durham Bulls, played right field and hit two doubles (1 RBI). Good swap, I’d say.

Matt Buschmann has not had a decision in his last three games, although the Bulls won two out of three. Nevertheless, his outing was pretty good. Lueke had another superb outing. This time he went two full innings and 36 pitches (32 for strikes!), and his 14th save.

Outside the game —

• If reports are accurate, Brandon Gomes, who started the season with the Bulls, is with the team on a rehab assignment and will get at least some time on the mound tonight. Not sure if he will still be with the team when the Bulls get back.
• Keeping an ear open for rumors about the injured Ray Alex Cobb. Not telling if his rehab assignment will bring him through the DBAP or not.
• Speaking of rehabs, former Durham Bull B.J. Upton played for the Gwinnett Braves last night. The Bulls play the Braves on Saturday and Sunday. Will B.J. be on the field? Can't tell. He’s not having a good year with Atlanta, so far. Hate to see him break out in the DBAP. He had quite a few big hits in his years with the Bulls.

Split

Season: 69-41; Trip: 2-2
Wrap, Box, Columbus Dispatch

Mike Montgomery did not pitch a very good game last night, a couple of the 5 walks he gave up scored. And yet he did leave the game with a tie score, two outs, and a runner on first. He did have a shot at a no-decision. Not to be. Frank de los Santos tossed a pickoff throw into right field and the runner at first went all around the bases to score. Montgomery got the loss. Gotta give some credit to smart, aggressive base running by Columbus' Carrera.

We haven’t been very impressed with Mr. Montgomery this year. He has the worst numbers of any pitcher on the roster (ERA: 4.26, FIP: 4.53, WHIP: 1.41). Nevertheless, a little luck last night would have been nice.

This was the first two-home run game for the Bulls since July 20th (they lost that one to the Pawtucket Red Sox 9-6). Base running was off by a good bit, and that could have made a big difference. Tim Beckham and Jason Bourgeois both got caught stealing, and Bourgeois got picked off. Not a good night.

Matchup Durham Bulls vs. Toledo Mud Hens

The second most famous team in minor league baseball, the Toledo Mud Hens, is not having a good year. They are also something of a poster child for the limits of what the stats can tell you, because most of their stats say they should be doing better than they are. They are 15 games below .500 and yet are in the middle of the pack on hitting and pitching within the IL. Without diving into the numbers we’d have to guess they must have some problems with their relievers and perhaps roster turmoil.

Durham Bulls Hitting

We haven’t looked at the Bulls hitters since June 28 and they've had quite a few changes since then. Evan Frey came and went, Juan Apodaca is no longer with the Bulls, Kevin Kiermaier has joined the team (but only has a few plate appearances), and Brandon Guyer has gone on the disabled list. So something of a mess, but the Bulls are still winning.

The players marked with * signs are on the Rays 40-man, which means that it’s fairly easy to call them up. But if a player isn’t on the 40-man (such as Leslie Anderson or Vince Belnome) then the Rays will have to make room one way or the other (the Rays are very creative about that when they need to be). I've left Guyer on the table just to remind us how well he'd been doing, and Craig Albernaz is there since he could easily show up in the near future. Data are from FanGraphs. Table(s) are sorted by wOBA values.

For more about the lesser known measures of Weighted Runs Above Average (wRAA) or Weighted On Base Average (wOBA) click on the links.

Durham Bulls as of July 29, 2013

Player	PA	AVG	OPS	wRAA	wOBA
Vince Belnome	404	.321	.919	25.9	.412
Leslie Anderson	380	.319	.908	22.1	.404
*Brandon Guyer	373	.300	.827	12.7	.374
Kevin Kiermaier	17	.231	.719	0.3	.355
Cole Figueroa	391	.301	.759	5.4	.348
*Tim Beckham	378	.276	.732	0.6	.332
Mike Fontenot	350	.267	.717	-1.0	.327
Jason Bourgeois	333	.292	.719	-1.2	.326
*Chris Gimenez	272	.241	.663	-2.1	.321
*Ryan Roberts	90	.247	.675	-1.1	.315
Shelley Duncan	266	.223	.701	-3.6	.313
Craig Albernaz	88	.237	.587	-3.9	.275
Jesus Flores	115	.200	.526	-8.2	.241

So, how do the Tampa Bay Rays look by the same metrics? Pretty good. Wil Myers is getting a lot of at bats and is doing very well. His home runs push his wOBA up nicely. I think the sabermetrics guys have some estimates about how well these numbers translate from AAA to the majors. (if someone out there knows, jump in.) The only direct comparison we have here is Ryan Roberts, whose batting average is essentially identical, as is his wRAA, and his wOBA is 12 points better with the Bulls.

But even if the ∆ between AAA and MLB is substantial, it sure looks Anderson and Belnome could add value to the Rays. Fortunately for the Bulls, that’s not going to happen before September, however, and maybe not then. But these numbers are pretty compelling. One obvious candidate among the Rays to be moved out, if needed.

Are any of the Bulls trade bait? Maybe.

Tampa Bay Rays as of July 29, 2013

Player	PA	AVG	OPS	wRAA	wOBA
Wil Myers	144	.328	.891	7.4	.379
Evan Longoria	440	.276	.861	18.5	.367
James Loney	386	.321	.838	14.6	.361
Luke Scott	246	.264	.817	8.0	.354
Kelly Johnson	312	.254	.790	7.0	.341
Matt Joyce	333	.240	.759	5.3	.333
Desmond Jennings	443	.263	.760	6.5	.332
Ben Zobrist	442	.268	.745	5.8	.330
Sean Rodriguez	142	.264	.715	0.5	.317
Jose Lobaton	198	.253	.687	-1.3	.305
Ryan Roberts	151	.248	.688	-1.2	.303
Yunel Escobar	370	.247	.674	-4.0	.300
Jose Molina	203	.236	.603	-7.0	.270
Sam Fuld	136	.200	.546	-7.2	.246

Two Out of Three; Martin Gets (More) Famous

Wrap, Box

Wrap, Box, Columbus Dispatch

Season: 69-40
Wrap, Box, Columbus Dispatch (1), Columbus Dispatch (2)

Those three ugly games after the All-Star break are quickly disappearing in the rear-view mirror. The Bulls’ two remaining 40-man guys (starters, that is), didn’t do very well back then. Now it’s all better. Mike Montgomery picked up a win on the 24th and last night, after two poor starts, Jake Odorizzi was very, very good. Only two hits over 7 innings and 101 pitches, and the first of those hits didn’t come until the 7th inning.

Odorizzi’s opponent, the Clippers’ Danny Salazar, was essentially matching him through five innings. But Salazar is on his way back from Tommy John surgery and left after five innings. In the 6th, however, poor defense by the Clippers let two runs in. Two more errors in the 8th set up two more runs.

But that is what the Bulls do this year. They just keep banging out singles and doubles, run the bases, and chip away. Yes, Belnome, Anderson, Duncan, and the much-missed Brandon Guyer are strong guys, but they aren’t going to beat an opponent’s brains in. What happens is that when the opposition looks up at the scoreboard around the 7th or 8th inning, they discover that they’re losing by a couple of runs and one of the Bulls two closers, Kirby Yates (ERA: 1.29, 14 saves) or Josh Lueke (ERA: 0.57, 13 saves) is warming up. Could not be a good feeling for them.

Last night also saw Charlie Montoyo do something that is fairly common this year, but something of a change from previous years. Cory Wade came in to pitch in the 8th and after a K got into trouble with a double and run-scoring single. Montoyo went for the left-on-left matchup and brought in Adam Liberatore to pitch to Clippers' Ezequiel Carrera. Yes, that’s a common enough move, and it worked. Carrera struck out. It just isn’t particularly common for the pre-2013 Charley Montoyo. More than that, after Liberatore walked the next batter to put runners on 1B and 2B, Montoyo brought in closer Kirby Yates for the second night in a row. Yates got a K with finish the 8th, and three quick outs to finish out the game.

Now, this sort of pitcher usage is common in the majors, but for most of the years we’ve been watching the Bulls it seemed that the manager and pitching coach would just as often go for a “development” opportunity. That is, more likely to leave a guy in for another batter or two (or three). This year, it seems as if Montoyo (and Allen, of course) are much quicker to pull a pitcher, much more willing to seek one or two outs from a reliever instead of one or two innings. That’s partly because after the early season turmoil the Bulls have more depth (and much more quality) in their relievers. As it is, Bulls relievers might be getting a bit bored. In the last three games they’ve only put in 7 innings, and only 6 pitchers have been used (Yates twice).

Outside the game —

• Brandon Guyer’s broken finger is reported to be a season ending injury. I don’t think we’ve witnessed a season with more severe injuries to position players. He joins Hak-Ju Lee and Rich Thompson on the “7-day DL”, but not likely to return. And just when he got his batting average up to .300.
• J.D. Martin has been named IL pitcher of the week. This is the second time this year for him. Quite likely if he were on any other roster than the Rays he would be banging on the door for a callup. As it is, even Chris Archer who just pitched a complete game, 2-hit shutout of the Yankees in Yankee Stadium, could be odd man out when Alex Cobb comes off the DL. Don’t get me wrong. Could not be happier than to have J.D. among us. Hope he's having as much fun pitching as we are watching.