Thursday, April 17, 2014

System Failure






Season: 10-4; Home Stand: 0-1
Wrap, Box, Herald-Sun

The Tampa Bay Rays lost two games yesterday, one up in Baltimore and the other in Durham.

I was unable to attend the game last night and only caught the last few innings on the radio when I heard something I am at a loss to explain adequately. How is it that a position player is sent to the mound in a tie game? Neither of the Bulls broadcasters, who have between them witnessed or played in thousands of baseball games, had ever seen it before. In a blowout, sure. In fact, Scott Pose, last night’s color commentator mentioned his experiences as a position player pitching in the minor leagues (AAA, see here). So how did it happen that catcher Mayo Acosta, who had never pitched a game of professional baseball ended up on the mound?

It sure sounded like the decision was made much earlier than Acosta’s appearance in the 8th, because Montoyo’s quote below (from the Herald-Sun) implies that he made up his mind when the Bulls were down 6-4 and before they came back in the 6th and 7th to tie the game.
“There’s no excuse, but we just were running out of pitching,” Bulls manager Charlie Montoyo said. “The team still battled back, knowing that Acosta was going to go in the eighth.”
But I’d say that the real reason goes back to last Monday when Rays pitcher Jake Odorizzi was feeling bad and went back to his Baltimore hotel. The Rays apparently told Montoyo to take starting pitcher Enny Romero out of the rotation. The Bulls went with a pitch by committee approach that night and last night the ripple effect caught up with them.

Of course, if starter Mike Montgomery hadn’t given up 5 runs (with 5 BBs) and new guy Doug Mathis’ first appearance had not been such a disaster (5 more BBs and another run), then Acosta would never have been on the mound in the first place. It was the Bulls worst pitching performance of the year even before Acosta came in the game.

Credit the Bulls for not giving up. That’s what makes the outcome for a Bulls fan so frustrating. It really sounded as if they had a chance until the 8th.

A short memory is a blessing in baseball. So today is another day. But there are system issues afoot for the Tampa Bay Rays. Distressed that a fine young man like Mr. Acosta gets thrown to the wolves like that. It could not have been fun. Maybe next time.


Wednesday, April 16, 2014

First Charts of 2014 Durham Bulls

Regular readers of WDBB know that I try to make pictures of how the team is doing. The Bulls are back in town tonight and it seems to me that it’s time to put up our first set of team charts. Larger views of the charts can be obtained by clicking on them.


I like the way that tracking games above/below.500 gives you a sense of how team performance is trending over time. After all, in the end a championship is decided by how many wins you have. The Bulls have ripped off an early streak of 7 games in a row and go into tonight’s game 3½ games ahead of Gwinnett in the IL South.



This chart will get more meaningful over time. It is a display of the game to game net of the runs scored minus the runs allowed. The intent is to provide a visual supplement to what called “Pythagorean Expectation” or PE. PE is the spooky observation that if you take runs scored minus runs allowed and run them through an equation, you can come up with a “expected” run-loss for the team. The Bulls current PE is 9-4 whereas their actual is 10-3. That is, the team is doing slightly better than the PE would project. We will have to see. In general, the variance of actual vs expected is attributed to relief pitching.

Which leads us to our next chart, Bulls pitching.



This is the cumulative ERA for the Bulls over the last ten games. As can be seen, the relievers are doing better than the starters, but both are doing very, very well. They are the best in the IL as a matter of fact.

Lastly, the hitting.



For this chart we have simply figured out the weighted On Base Average (wOBA) for the entire team for each game, then displayed the last 10 games. We prefer wOBA over any other hitting stat even if it isn’t all that well known. Think of it as a mashup of on-base percentage and slugging with a slightly more sophisticated weighting of extra base hits than OPS and adding in base running.

The Bulls are doing very well (.400 is considered an top-rated wOBA)

Seven in a Row!

Mickie Mahtook

Season: 10-3; Road: 5-0

The Bulls had an amazing 16 hits last night for a stunning 32 total bases (3 doubles, 2 triples, 3 home runs). Leading the charge was Jerry Sands with two home runs, and Mikie Mahtook with a double, triple, and two singles. His 11 hits in a row were close to an IL record, but he K’d in the 8th to end the streak. It was, by the way, 45ยบ when they reached that point and the stands were reportedly empty. But it was a stellar night for the hitters.

Meanwhile, Enny Romero, who had be held out from his regular start on Monday because the Rays thought they might need him, got the start and the win. Matt Adriese, who was to have started the game in his ordinary rotation instead came in the game in relief and went two innings. Jeff Beliveau closed it out. Very astute management of the pitching crew, I’d say.

Outside the game —
  • The Bulls have a new pitcher. Doug Mathis has been signed after leaving the Rangers system a couple of days ago. The Bulls need the arm. So we can hope.
  • The Bulls are the first team in the IL to reach 10 victories, but that’s partly due to the fact that they are one of only two teams that have played the full 13 games. Other than Charlotte, every other team has had at least one game postponed. Columbus has only managed to play a total of 10 games. Buffalo has played just 9 games. It’s ugly out up there. 

Matchup

Norfolk is off to an awful start this season. They really got bashed last night down at Gwinnett (15-0). Obvious problems with their pitching so far.


Tuesday, April 15, 2014

Pitching Scheme in Shreds, But Durham Bulls Still Winning


Season: 9-3; Trip: 4-0
Wrap, Box, Charlotte Observer

Six in a row is a big deal. This team is looking good. Adversity and roster turmoil does not seem to be taking a toll on them … yet.

The Knights management took a page out of the Bulls book and moved the game up 30 minutes to try to escape a rainout. It worked. But the Bulls ripped off four runs in the first inning and that was enough.

Those early runs made a huge difference since the Bulls were short yet another pitcher when young Enny Romero was scratched, apparently just in case he would be needed by the Rays. See Outside the Game below for more. Juan Sandoval showed his maturity with a solid three innings. Rehabbing Juan Carlos Oviedo made a bid for trivia immortality with a 7-pitch, 1-inning win. I say made a bid, because I’m not going to look it up. It might have been a good moment for Brad Boxberger to come in, but wait, he was in Baltimore with the Rays where he had a crisp 1 inning, 10 pitch, 1K appearance. Steve Gelz did three innings, and Adam Liberatore and Kirby Yates wrapped it up.

The Bulls got their first shutout of the year. On the road. That’s very, very nice.

Meanwhile, Mikie Mahtook played left field in the Knights’ new park, batted 6th and had himself a terrific 5 for 5 night.

Is Vince Belnome getting his eye back? Maybe. He got his first home run last night.

Outside the game —
  • These last several days we Bulls fans have had any number of reminders that the Durham Bulls have limited control over their roster. When the mother ship comes under fire and starts taking on water, some folks get sent to the lifeboats and others are summoned from steerage to the bridge to keep her from foundering. 
  • Former Bull Matt Moore is out for at least a year. That means that Erik Bedard’s 4 innings back on April 6 could be his only appearance in a Bulls uniform, ever.
  • Former Bull Alex Cobb has strained an oblique. We don’t quite know what that may mean to the Bulls. At a minimum that was part of the carousel that Jeff Beliveau and Brad Boxberger have been on.
  • Then former Bull Jake Odorizzi, scheduled to pitch today in Baltimore, was reported to be under the weather, so Enny Romero was scratched from his start last night. 
  • Who’s next?

Monday, April 14, 2014

Sweep on the Road; Where's Jeff?


Season: 8-3; Trip: 3-0
Wrap, Box, Gwinnett Daily Post

The Durham Bulls did a nice job of messing up the Gwinnett Braves home opening series by sweeping them. They are up to five in a row.

Nate Karns showed off his talent for the first time in a Bulls uniform and was very impressive in his first AAA win.

The quirk of the game was the Bulls’ 12 hits, all singles. That was enough, but if they had lost I’m sure we’d have been writing about the 16 runners who got left on base. In addition to the 12 singles, 7 BB and 1 HBP, put a lot of guys on base.

Outside the game —

Where’s Jeff?

So far this year Jeff Beliveau has pitched 6 innings in relief, 4 for the Bulls and 2 for the Rays. But there’s really no telling how many frequent flier miles he’s piled up. His first game (2 innings) was in Durham on April 5th. Then he was off to pitch an inning for the Rays in Kansas City on Wednesday, April 9th. He was back with the Bulls in Georgia to pitch a couple of innings on Friday the 11th, then off to pitch an inning for the Rays in Cincinnati yesterday (the 13th). At at guess he’ll stick with them for a while. Hard to tell given the turmoil in the Rays’ starting pitching ranks. How’s he doing? Not bad. ERA of 0.00 overall. 1 hit, 0 BB, 7Ks.

Matchup

The Bulls are off to Charlotte to take a look at their shiny new stadium. The Knights’ pitching is the best in the International League, but the Bulls are improving. These two teams may turn out to be the key matchup in the IL South for 2014. After these two games, the Bulls will be back in Charlotte for four more games next week and then won’t play them again until May 13th, in Durham.



Sunday, April 13, 2014

Four in a Row

Season: 7-3; Trip: 2-0
Wrap, Box, Gwinnett Daily Post

Merrill Kelly did just fine in his first start for 2013. In fact, he went a full six innings. Kelly doesn’t strike ‘em out, he just gets them out. His only mistake was a home run to (who else?) Ernesto Mejia.

As pointed out in the matchup a couple of days ago, G’Braves pitching is not up to their usual standards. The Bulls are taking advantage of that early in the season.

Outside the game —
  • Kevin Kiermaier got his first major league start and got famous. Check out the video and the commentary over on Rays Index. He is expected to return to the Bulls in the next day or so.
  • Update: More on Kiermaier here.

Saturday, April 12, 2014

Triples


Season: 6-3; Trip: 1-0
Wrap, Box, Gwinnett Daily Post

A triple is an unusual hit in baseball. Three in a game is very unusual.

Last night’s first, by Mikie Mahtook, drove in Jerry Sands. The second, by catcher Roman Ali Solis, put him on 3B and he came home on a Ray Olmedo single. The third, by Justin Christian, drove in two runs and blew the game open. Christian came home on a sacrifice fly of Wilson Betemit.

Meanwhile Mike Montgomery continues to look very good in a 5-inning, 5K, 1ER performance. Jeff Beliveau came back from Tampa Bay and put in a solid two innings. C.J. Riefenhauser and Kirby Yates closed it out.

Outside the game —
  • Kevin Kiermaier is in the starting lineup for todays game in Cincinatti.
  • Merrill Kelly is tonight’s starting pitcher (He did that 14 times last year. He was, in fact, the 5th man in last year’s rotation.)
  • As to why, well reports have Durham Bull Erik Bedard being called up even though Cesar Ramos is listed at Tampa Bay’s starter and no corresponding roster move has been announced.
  • Charlotte's new park opened last night. Background story here.