Friday, September 22, 2017

The Durham Bulls in 2017 — Part 1

The Durham Bulls started the season winning three games in a row and never looked back. There was a moment back on April 22nd when the Gwinnett Braves were in a tie, but that was the last time the Bulls did not lead in the South Division of the International League.

click on chart for larger image
Tracking their net runs scored over the year was equally impressive, if not as much as a couple of other years.


What stood out in 2017 was the Bulls' pitching staff. This chart shows the running ERA of the starters and relievers over the last half of the season. The Bulls ended the regular season with a team ERA of 3.37, just behind Scranton/Wilkes-Barre's 3.36. And a good bit better than the league average on 3.97. And just look at the relievers! Their ERA at the end of the year was just 3.13. That explains the observation that of the 15 "bullpen days" (games that were started by relief pitchers instead of starters), the Bulls won 12.


Hitting was not a strength of this year's Bulls team. They had a hitting streak going at mid-season, but they "regressed to the mean" by the end of the year. The team OPS of .719 matched the league average for the year. That goes a long way toward explaining the Runs Scored chart above.


We invented a stat this year to try to get a grip on team defense, calling it the "Unearned Run Average". It's simply a running average of unearned runs per 9 innings and fairly easy to calculate. The Bulls were a standout this year. Errant glove work and wild pitching did not have too much of an impact on games lost this year.

How about that post-season?

These stats do not reflect a post-season where the Bulls took three out of four in the first round, took three out of four in the second round to win the Governors' Cup, and then won the AAA National Championship. They outscored their opponents 39 to 22 and pitched two shut-outs. And who could forget a grand slam to win the AAA game!

2017 is a fine addition to the Durham Bulls history.

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