Durham Bulls Run for September

Here we are in early August. The Bulls are back home for 5 games (doubleheader tonight!). Then off to Rochester for the last out-of-division games. Back home for a long 10-game stretch against Charlotte, Norfolk, and Gwinnett. On the road for five games. Home for two.

That’s it. In three-plus weeks the season is over.

Keeping focus for fans and players is gonna be hard. The players are, understandably, probably thinking about September call-ups as the Rays move towards a rebuilding 2015.

Fans are thinking about the playoffs — they begin with South meeting at West September 3rd. So let’s take a look at the team and how ready they might be for the last 28 games of the season.

Here’s the IL South Division with markers for the teams who would be meeting if the playoffs started tomorrow. They would be the North winner playing the Wild Card, Syracuse playing Pawtucket, and the West winner playing the South winner, Columbus playing Durham. But both of those divisions have much tighter races than the South Division. [standings]

What this chart also shows is that there’s a distinct downward trend in the wins and losses for the Bulls since the All-Star break, 8 wins and 11 losses. Fortunately, Norfolk, which had been on quite a run, has fallen off. Charlotte bears watching, though. They’ve come up out of a -22 hole, beat the Bulls three out of four recently, and are hitting and pitching very well.

[Note: Clicking on a chart will give a larger view]

The trend in the runs scored/runs allowed metric has leveled out, but only around a plus ten. That’s well below previous winning years (see the next chart), so a bit worrisome.

Pitching over the last 25 games has been OK, in the upper ranges of the International League. The relief pitching has been exceptional and is what has kept the Bulls in contention all year.

Bulls hitting, as measured by team OPS over the last 15 games, is ticking upwards.

Split; Bulls Come Home; Games on FM

Season: 61-55; Trip: 3-5; Home Games Remaining: 17
Wrap, Box, The Morning Call

The Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs were supposed to be a weak-hitting team, the doormat of the International League. But they produced 42 hits against Bulls pitching over these four games, including 3 home runs, a triple and 11 doubles. The Bulls only had 40 hits so a 2-2 split sort of makes sense.

Probably the idea behind yesterday’s game was to get out to the stadium, have some fun, then take a day off (IronPigs), go home and take a day off (Bulls). After 180 pitches and 3½ hours the Bulls finally got off the field and eventually left town. Which is one way of saying that the pitchers really worked for the win. It was not a gift from the IronPigs.

Yesterday morning’s game was a good example, notable mostly for it’s length, than for the pitching by either side. Bulls pitching gave up 12 hits and 5 walks, but then IronPigs weren’t able to bring many home, leaving 12 men on base. The Bulls didn’t do much better, they left 11 runners on base. In some ways the game really wasn’t decided until the 8th, when Jeremy Moore cleared the bases of Bulls on a single to deep right field. That put the Bulls up 7 to 3, the Pigs got two back in the bottom of the inning and the Bulls got one back in the top of the 9th.

Every Bull got a hit, except for Hak-Ju Lee. Betemit and Solis got 3 hits each, a great day for the two of them.

As an aside we have to pass on Patrick Kinas’ humor during Mike Montgomery’s awful 3rd inning. (Note: cannot guarantee accuracy here. You’ll have to ask him.) Bases loaded, count is 2-2, and Kinas says something like, “and now perhaps we’ll some some Montgomery magic on the mound.” Montgomery threw a ball making it 3-2. “Well, if he can’t pull a rabbit out of the hat, maybe a hamster.” Next pitch was a ball, walking in a run. No more comments about Montgomery magic, although he did get out of the inning. Could have been worse.

Outside the game —

• Double header on Thursday. First game starts at 6:05 against the Buffalo Bisons. Making up a rained out game a month ago.
• Not happy with AM 620? Try FM 99.3. Low power FM is on the air with coverage of much of Raleigh area. Not sure about the rest of the region, yet. I’m having decent luck from northern Wake County, which helps since the AM radio in my car isn’t very good. This is a good deal for me.

Oops Leads to Catastrophe

Season: 60-55; Trip: 2-5
Wrap, Box, The Morning Call

The Bulls are playing this morning up in Allentown, so this will be short.

Alex Colome and Ray Olmedo botched a play at third base in the third inning and things went down hill from there. It probably shouldn’t have made a difference and certainly should not have carried over into the next inning (4 runs), but it seemed to. By that time I’d stopped listening so I’m not sure.

Outside the game —

• Dealing with roster turmoil is part of the game at AAA level, as noticed in this Morning Call article. By the way, The Morning Call is just about the best of the bunch in home town International League coverage of any paper we’ve seen.

Bats Sleep, Then Wake Up

Wrap, Box, Lehigh Valley

Season: 60-54; Trip: 2-4
Wrap, Box, The Morning Call

The Bulls hitters got off to a good start, Nate Karns worked himself out of some tough jams, and a three-run homer tied a bow on it.

Mikie Mahtook doubled in Justin Christian, stole third base and then scored on a Mike Fontenot single to start things off in the 1st. Jeremy Moore hit a solo home run in the 3rd. So Karns was working with some solid backup. However, the Iron Pigs scored in the 1st and former Bull Russ Canzler homered in the 4th to bring them close. And then the Iron Pigs loaded the bases in the 5th and things looked grim before Karns got a called third strike to end the inning.

Robby Price pretty much put the game away the next inning when Lehigh Valley put two Bulls on base with walks and then he cleared the bases with his 3rd home run of the year.

Mikie Mahtook scored on an Ali Solis single in the 7th. Nick Franklin got his first hit as a Durham Bull in the 8th, a double that scored Justin Christian. Mike Fontenot scored on a Hak-Jul Lee fielder’s choice in the 9th.

In relief, Steve Geltz had a nice recovery from his recent ugly outing and Adam Liberatore continued his dominance in the inherited runners category for Bulls pitchers. Liberatore has only let 3 of the 23 runners he’s inherited score. No other Bull even comes close.

Outside the game —

• If the ballplayer in this photo from last night's Pirates-Diamondbacks game looks familiar, he should. That’s Jayson Nix and he’s gone from a Durham Bulls infielder to the Pittsburgh Pirates active roster. Broadcaster Kinas mentioned it last night. I also did not know that he had been on an opt-out contract and that he’d asked for his release at essentially the same time that the Rays had brought in Nick Franklin on the David Price trade. Looks like a good move for Nix and we continue to wish him well — unless he shows up playing for the Indianapolis Indians in the playoffs. Not very likely, it seems.
• Speculation continues that Wil Myers might show up on a rehab assignment this weekend. Keep an eye on the Bulls website. And don’t forget their promotion linked to his appearance.
• Two Rays pitchers were designated for assignment a while back, Erik Bedard and Juan Carlos Oviedo. There was some small chance that Oviedo might show up in a Bulls uniform, but they were both released by the Rays.
• A prospect, Blake Snell, pitching for the Charlotte Stone Crabs, threw a 6 inning no-hitter a couple of days ago.

Two For the Road

Season: 59-53; Trip: 1-3
Wrap, Box 111, Box 112, Charlotte Observer

The Durham Bulls drifted back down to six games above .500 after a dismal showing in dismal weather in Charlotte. The first game last night was the last 6 innings of a 9 inning resumed game from the previous night’s postponement. (Got that wrong yesterday. Pretty sure I heard the radio guys say it was to be 7 - innings.) The overall highlights of the first game were the four Charlotte home runs: One given up by Mike Montgomery on Thursday; two by Brandon Gomes and one by Doug Mathis on Friday.

The second game saw newcomer Nick Franklin in the lineup at second base. But he ended up being just one of many Bulls who went to bat with runners on base (the Bulls left 13 runners on base last night) and didn’t push any in.

Trivia of the night: Charlotte pitchers gave up 9 walks last night. Not a record for the Bulls, but close.

Matchup

Bulls took 3 out of 4 from the Phillies Triple A team, the Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs at the end of May. The Pigs are having an awful year and, if their Pythagorean Expectation is to be believed, it could be even worse. They currently are in last place in the IL North Division. Does that mean the Bulls should have an easy time of if? Well, no, because let’s face it, the Bulls have been playing middle-of-the-road baseball lately.

To their credit, the Iron Pigs have one of the few fan blogs in all of minor league baseball, Noise Nation/Horn and Bell. The other being, well, WDBB, of course. They also get fairly good coverage from their local paper, which also has an Iron Pigs blog.

Jayson Nix Departs Bulls

Durham Bulls infielder Jayson Nix turned out to be the odd man out of the David Price trade. We speculated yesterday on who that might be and, as usual, got it wrong.

Mr. Nix has been an asset to the Bulls this year, playing just about every position in the field, but mostly second base. In 54 games the 33 year old had 25 RBI and a decent slash line of .275/.343/.413. His July numbers were particularly strong, so we can hope that he can catch on with another team. He was a help to the Bulls and we liked watching him play the game.

Good Luck!

A Win, Some Rain, a New Infielder

Season: 59-51; Trip: 1-1

Wrap, Box, Charlotte Observer

Alex Colome looked good after 10 days rest. Belnome, Lee, Nix, and Mahtook had 2-hit games.

Box, Charlotte Observer

They will resume the postponed game as beginning of a double header (7-inning) at 6:05 today. Mike Montgomery had given up a 2-run homer in the 2nd, but rain was coming down much of the game as the teams spent two hours mostly sitting in dugouts.

David Price and Nick Franklin

The big news yesterday was the trade of former Bull David Price to the Detroit Tigers. For a look at the deal from the Rays point of view here are a couple of links. Over at Rays Index, Cork Gaines seems to think the deal makes sense. The Process Report weighs in here. And Robbie Knopf at Rays Colored Glasses has his thoughts.

We here at WDBB don’t much care about either the Smyly or Adames piece of the trade. What we want to know is how the deal will affect the Durham Bulls’ chances for at least a South Division title if not another Governors’ Cup. Since it looks like a one-for-one for starting pitchers down in St. Petersburg, the key Durham Bulls consideration is the young middle infielder from the Mariners organization Nick Franklin. 

The 23 year-old, switch-hitting Franklin had a lot of time with the Mariners last year (102 games), but only 17  this year. He has impressive numbers in his 75 games with the Tacoma Rainiers, .294/.392/.455. He has split his time between 2B and SS. So there’s no question that his bat will bring a lot to the Bulls. His OPS ranks near the very top of the Bulls, in the statistical company of Mikie Mahtook and Jeremy Moore. [stats]

However, a lot depends on the Rays assessment of where he stands on his development path. Don’t forget that Cole Figueroa is still sitting on the Rays’ bench and Franklin certainly seems like a bat the Rays could use. Franklin could go to the Rays sooner rather than later. Is he going to take up a 40-man slot? Don’t know. [Update, 10:30: Yes.]

But let’s assume he comes to the Bulls. Who will leave? And where? And what serves the Bulls' best interests? Obviously, the weakest link in the Bulls infield is Hak-Ju Lee. The question with Lee would be what would help him the most, seeing more Triple-A pitching, or spending some time in AA? I’d bet on sticking with the Bulls. That leaves Jayson Nix, Mike Fontenot, Ray Olmedo, and Robby Price (but don’t forget Figueroa and someday, someday, Tim Beckham will be back). Faced with similar choices this year, it has always been Robby Price who's been pushed off the bus.

I think we’ll know pretty soon and you can be sure that the decision will have nothing to do with the Bulls Governors’ Cup prospects. There’s a reason the Rays wanted Franklin. We just don’t know exactly what that is yet.