Two Pitchers; Two Styles; One Result

Season: 73-69; Home Stand: 1-0
Wrap, Box

I loved this game. Two very different pitchers at work, few mistakes, pure baseball.

The Bulls guy, Bradin Hagens, is a pitch-to-contact guy. By that I mean that the opposing hitters are going to get a chance. And they did last night. But they just mostly hit the ball to Bulls fielders. Hagens did not give up a single walk in his 7 innings and had only one strikeout, the last batter. He even took on some of the fielding work himself with an unassisted putout in the 2nd and fielding two comebackers in the 3rd. Stats geeks will love him as well. His Game Score was 70, one of the best by a Bull all season. To top it off, he is finishing the season with four wins in a row.

The Tides guy, Chris Jones, was a bit more conventional and ended the night with 6 out of 7 innings of solid pitching, including 7 K’s with his 1 walk.

If not for the 1st inning, things could have been 0-0 when both pitchers left the game. But the 1st was enough. Rehabbing Steven Sousa (broken hand) was dh-ing and batting second. He got a hit. Taylor Motter walked. Sousa scored on a Corey Brown single. Motter scored on a Cameron Seitzer single. And that was essentially it for the rest of the game.

Yes, reliever Robert Zarate provided some thrills in the 9th. But a little cardio work is good after you’ve been sitting all that time.

I’m liking two of the new guys a lot. The first, who’s been here a while, is Joey Rickard. Quick hands at bat. Good in the outfield. Have not seen his arm tested yet. The second is recent arrival Cameron Seitzer, who appears to be a real pro at first base, in spite of last night’s E, and a decent left handed bat.

With this win (actually with Friday’s win) the Bulls are sure to finish the season above .500. Good news.

The Bulls set a new season attendance record with well over a half a million fans through the gates.

Outside the game —

• Hak-Ju Lee passed through waivers and has been assigned to the Bulls. At a guess he will be in uniform either tonight or tomorrow. Not sure of the rules.
• Gwinnett lost to Charlotte last night, but neither the South Division championship nor third place in the division is set. Nor has the West Division championship been decided. Standings.

The New Durham Bulls Win Another

Season: 70-68; Home Stand: 4-2
Wrap, Box

The new Durham Bulls kept up their late season pace last night. Only two of the new players were on the field, José Constanza in left field and Cameron Seitzer at first base. Constanza had two hits and a RBI. Seitzer had his first AAA hit. Old hands Corey Brown, Ryan Brett (who had a 4 for 5 night), Nick Franklin, Jake Elmore, plus new guy Joey Rikard contributed RBI.

This was the best outing that Scott Diamond has had since back on July 6. And it was, by far, his most efficient. He went 7⅓ innings on only 87 pitches. That is a stellar 3.95 pitches per out. He was already the most efficient starter on the team at 4.90, but this was an exceptional outing. Parker Markel gave up his first run.

Outside the game —

• Here’s a bit more discussion of Hak-Ju Lee. At a guess, another team is going to claim him, but my guesses aren’t usually accurate.
• Congratulations to Taylor Motter for making the International League All-Star team! Yet another argument for a call-up for him. He was 1 for 4 with a walk while playing shortstop last night.
• J.P. Arencibia made the Orioles pay for dumping him at the beginning of the season. He started at catcher last night up in Baltimore and picked up 6 RBI on two singles and a home run in an 11-2 win, while catching Drew Smyly in Smyly’s best performance since finishing his rehab with the Bulls a couple of weeks ago.
• And a small rant about the Herald-Sun. First, they messed up their website so I had to make several calls to get to it. Then they didn’t bother to send a reporter to last night’s game and did a cut and paste job from the Bulls wrap. I’ve come to expect that of my hometown paper, the N&O, but Durham’s?

Rosterification: Round 1

• Hak-Ju Lee was designated for assignment, probably to make room on the Tampa Bay 40-man roster for Luke Maile. If he passes through waivers then he could get in a game or two as a Bull before the end of the season
• Ernesto Frieri came off the disabled list.
• Jared Mortensen is a 27 year old Canadian right-hander who has started 17 games this season for the Montgomery Biscuits. Has been in the Rays system since 2013. Stats.
• Cameron Seitzer  is a 25 year old mostly first baseman and designated hitter for the Biscuits the last two years. .308/.383/.475, pretty good. Stats.
• Alec Sole is the youngster of the crew, only 22. The infielder (ss, 3B, mostly) is jumping up from the Charlotte Stone Crabs. He started the season in Bowling Green. Stats.
• Wilmer Dominguez a 24 year old catcher who has been with the Rays system since 2009. He has only played in one game this year (at Montgomery), so there’s a story there. Stats.

Fun While It Lasted

6th Inning: Hak-Ju Lee slides safely under/past the tag of Knights’ 1B Dayan Viciedo as pitcher Brad Penny and 2B Michah Johnson cluster in frustration. Thanks, Sue! 

Season: 67-67; Home Stand: 1-1
Games Remaining: 10; Home Games: 7
Wrap, Box

Each of the three Durham Bulls pitchers allowed at least one earned run last night and that was enough to break the streak. Those fans inclined to seek good news at the far reaches of probability, possibility, and plausibility are slowly coming back to earth. But wasn’t that a pretty run?

About that photo up at the top by our good friend Sue Roth (who sits not far from first base, obviously) — I am not a fan of even the idea of sliding into first base and have been pleased to see it seemingly disappear from most player’s trick bag. But this time it made sense. As the first batter in Durham’s piece of the 6th inning, Hak-Ju Lee made a hard bunt between pitcher and first base. Thereafter there was a gathering of Knights: Pitcher Brad Perrry, First Baseman Dayan Viciedo, and Second Baseman Micah Johnson. Viciedo has the ball and Lee is sliding under and past the tag to reach the base. A fraction of a second later Johnson kicks Lee in the head and they had what I hope was a friendly discussion about that.

Back to the rest of the game.

Matt Moore had brilliant innings followed by not very good innings all night. And easy 1st inning, then two walks and two K’s in the 2nd. In the 3rd a single, a run-scoring double, and two wild pitches let two runs score. Three up, three down in the 4th. Same in the 5th. In the 6th a single, then an error by Richie Shaffer, and another single loaded the bases. Moore hit the next batter for another run. Kirby Yates gave up a run on 2 hits in his 1⅔ innings. Andrew Bellatti gave up a home run in his inning.

But the hitters did have their chances. After being absolutely shut down for 14 outs, a double by Cory Brown broke up the perfect game Brad Penney had going. Then in the 7th the Bulls scored two runs before Mikie Mahtook struck out with the bases loaded. That got the Bulls within a run, but the Knights got two more runs before the Bulls even threatened in the 9th and that fizzled out.

Nevertheless, an 8-game run is a big deal. Thanks, Bulls, for the thrills as the season winds down.

Seven!

Wrap, Box, Virginian-Pilot

Season: 66-66; Trip: 2-0
Wrap, Box

The Bulls reached .500 for the first time in almost exactly a month (July 26) with their seventh win in a row, the longest streak of the year. On game six of the run, Tuesday night, Joey Butler broke it open in the 11th inning, and he had a lot to do with Wednesday afternoon's win. Names we’ve grown to love this last week looked terrific, Taylor Motter, Richie Shaffer, and Butler all had hits in the 11th and Hak-Ju Lee brought in the third run with a sacrifice fly, a run it turned out the Bulls would need as Kirby Yates made the bottom of the 11th a bit more thrilling than necessary.

Then yesterday Joey Butler was at it again, this time with two home runs in support of Bradin Hagens. Along with Mikie Mahtook’s 4 for 5 day at the plate, a timely sacrifice fly by Taylor Motter, and a disruptive stolen base by Lee.

Both games were also bit unusual for Jared Sandberg’s tactics or, rather, his use of some traditional tactics he seems to have avoided this season.

For example, he has only called for 8 intentional bases on balls all season. He did so in the bottom of the 9th on Tuesday and it worked.

Similarly, he has not been a big fan of pinch-hitting, but yesterday in the critical 7th inning, when the Bulls were behind 3-4, he put Nick Franklin in to bat for catcher Mayo Acosta. Hak-Ju Lee had singled with one out and Acosta has a dismal batting average. A few pitches into the at bat Lee stole second base and Franklin then drew a walk (note that the Tides’ catcher set up well off the plate for a 3-1 pitch so it was an unintentional, intentional in hopes of getting a double play). When Mikie Mahtook hit a double to bring in Lee and Franklin and the winning runs, Sandberg looked like master tactician.

Pitching? Blake Snell was terrific on Tuesday and Bradin Hagens got his second win in a row, getting past two important errors by Bulls fielders.

Outside the game —

• J.P. Arencibia went up to the Rays! Congratulations. It turns out that his recent time behind the plate with the Bulls will serve him well. See this link for more than you probably want to know about how they pulled off the roster moves.
• Desmond Jennings is hurt, again. That opens the door for any number of Bulls on the 40-man, to include Joey Butler, Mickie Mahtook, or Richie Shaffer

About these seven wins and the next 12 games —

This has been a remarkable run. The team ERA dropped from 3.99 to 3.90 (with 132 games played, it takes a lot to move the averages that much). The starters went from 3.92 to 3.88, while the relief crew outdid themselves with a drop from 4.09 to 3.93. The hitters moved the team seasonal wOBA from .317 to .321 over the seven games. That may not seem like much, but, again, at this point in the season that’s a big move. The team wOBA hasn’t been that high since July 22. The last time the team pitching has been in this range was back on July 16th.

The rest of the Bulls dozen games are against South Division opponents and 9 of their final 12 games are at home. The Bulls start with Charlotte, have a couple of games against Gwinnett, a few more with Charlotte, and end up with Norfolk. Recently Norfolk has fallen off its terrific run to the top and Gwinnett, which had been making quite an attempt, has also fallen off. With roster turmoil coming for all four teams, who knows what the future holds. For the time being, let’s celebrate a return to .500 baseball.

Five in a Row; Is There Hope for the Future?

Season: 64-66; Home Stand: 5-0
Games Remaining: 14; Home Games: 10
Wrap, Box, Herald-Sun

For the first time in what seems like a very long time I was able to get to the DBAP to watch a game. I certainly didn’t expect the Bulls to pull off a 5-in-a-row, but they did. This was the best at-home series of the year.

The Bulls’ were hitting homers last night, Nick Franklin, J.P. Arencibia, and Hak-Ju Lee in the first three innings. But it was Lee who had the big night at bat, 4 RBIs.

Everett Teaford had his best start in a very long time. In fact, the last time he had a Game Score as good as last night (58) was in a no-decision game back on June 16. Nice to see him in good form. Particularly impressive was the moment in the 5th when the umpire apparently decided to ignore the pace of game rules and let two Columbus batters in a row step in and out of the box numerous times. Both batters drew walks, but Teaford managed to sort himself out and get out of the inning unscathed (we won’t count the inning-opening home run).

My first time seeing new guy Parker Markel. He looked pretty good with his 3 K’s over 2 ⅔ innings. At a guess, however, he’s the odd man out when José Dominguez returns. Dominguez passed through waivers yesterday and will be coming back to the Bulls.

For the first time in recent memory Boog Powell was not the leadoff batter, Mikie Mahtook was and Powell was second. However, he did start toward the plate at the very beginning of the game and came back toward the dugout with a big grin on his face. Habit.

Carolina Dreamin’

These five wins in a row got broadcaster Patrick Kinas running the math a bit. His colleague Scott Pose wasn’t challenging the numbers, but he also wasn’t buying into it either. Standings.

Let’s take a look. The rest of the season the Bulls are playing against International League South Division teams. Five against Norfolk (2 away, 3 home); 7 against Charlotte (4 home, 3 away); and 2 against Gwinnett at the DBAP. All of those teams are above .500 and Gwinnett in particular has been hot lately. Half of the remaining games will take place place after the September call-ups and it’s hard to say what Chicago, Atlanta, Baltimore, or Tampa Bay will do to their South Division teams.

What we can point out is this:

Yes, the Bulls are hot, but so are the Braves. You have to think that Gwinnett could make a run at the top spot, but no one else is likely to sneak into the wild card slot. Could something happen? Sure. Likely? We can only hope.

A more reasonable wish is for the Bulls to establish a winning season. That’s what this chart will be showing. Getting above the 0 mark is a winning season. And that, given this July and August, would be a significant accomplishment.

Bats Muffled

Wrap, Box, Herald-Sun

Season: 55-58; Home Stand: 3-5

Wrap, Box, Herald-Sun

This was possibly the best all-around Bulls game of the year. The run differential of 9 runs was, by a couple of runs, the biggest of the year. The 16 hits and 8 walks were part of a team OPS of 1.064, 300 points above the IL average of .717. Matt Moore and 3 relievers held the Bats to just 3 hits, 2 walks, and 1 run with 11 K’s. 

It was a rainy night in Durham. I watched on TV and noticed all the fans huddled under their umbrellas. Ground balls in the outfield spun up rooster-tails as they ran over the grass. One long ball to the right field wall didn’t bounce, it just died on the warning track. Several times the grounds crew was out with Diamond-Dry for the mound and batter’s box (trivia question of the day: What is Diamond-Dry made from?). Batters were constantly wiping their bats down between pitches (How could that possibly do any good, I thought. Maybe?)

Every Bull got a hit, except for Hak-Ju Lee. However, Lee got an RBI on a bases-loaded walk in the the 1st inning. Mikie Mahtook is back and batted leadoff. He started with a single and followed up with a 3-run homer in the 6th. He looked more comfortable at the plate than I’ve seen him all year. New guy Joey Rickard is making the most of his time in AAA. He was 4 for 6 and is hitting .444 so far. Taylor Motter was 4 for 5 in one of his best games of the year. Luke Maile got back up above the Mendoza Line.

Meanwhile, the newest Bull is Rays star left-hander Matt Moore. He has been sent down to sort out his recovery from surgery and, after some real troubles with the Rays last month, he gave the Bats a tutorial on big league pitching. He may not yet be back to his best fastball, but his off-speed stuff was nasty. Indeed, he had four perfect innings before a couple of singles got through in the 5th. The rest of the inning was ground outs (with one walk), but a run got across. The 6th was 3 up, 3 drown. 

He was followed by Andrew Bellatti, not seen for quite a while. He K’d the side. Then Bradin Hagens for his first appearance as a reliever in this trip to AAA. He gave up a single before getting the next three batter out. José Dominguez walked one, but he was double up and a ground out finished the game.

Bulls-Bats games over the years have often been fun to watch. The Reds have a good system and, usually, manage their guys well. 

Pitcher Has Problems

Season: 53-56; Home Stand: 1-3
Wrap, Box

A starting pitcher at the DBAP had an awful inning and gave up enough runs to lose the game — and he wasn’t wearing a Durham Bulls uniform!

Indianapolis’ Radhames Liz is a ten-year veteran who can still throw a 98 mph fastball, but sometimes has problems. Last night’s 4th inning, for example. Taylor Motter popped up to 2B for the first out. J.P. Arencibia walked. Corey Brown walked. Jake Elmore was hit by a pitch to load the bases. New guy Joey Rickard hit a line drive single to left to drive in Arencebia. Hak-Ju Lee hit a sacrifice fly to center field that scored Brown. With Elmore on 3rd base and Rickard on 1st base the Indians left fielder dropped Luke Maile’s fly ball right in front of the video board and Elmore scored. Liz then walked Boog Powell to load the bases again, but Desmond Jennings grounded out to end inning (note for Rays fans: second time this rehab stint that Jennings has made a bases-loaded out).

Three runs on one hit! It says something for Liz’s erratic nature that he finished his night pitching two more innings with seven straight outs: A ground out (Jennings), a liner to left, two K’s, a ground out, and two more K’s. Fastballs were still in the 95-98 mph range after 90 pitches.

For trivia fans, last night’s two hit win matches one from way back on May 13th that the Bulls won 1-0.

Outside the game —

• Richie Shaffer got on base, Mickie Mahtook got the game-winning RBI, and Kevin Kiermaier made a great throw. Good day for ex-Bulls up in Chicago. [story]
• Lots of folks go to Bulls games whether they are home or elsewhere. The Bulls average 7,776 at home and are averaging 6,676 as a draw while on the road. Although some might say that the away games are possibly not all that good a measure of how much of a draw the most famous team in minor league baseball can be. Last night (a Monday) was one of the smaller crowds this year and still fun. Buffalo back in May and Gwinnett just last week appear to be the sites where the Bulls are the least popular. Although it's entirely possible that it's the Bisons and the Braves who aren't popular.

Maile Makes Good

Season: 48-43; At Home: 22-21; This Home Stand: 2-2
Wrap, Box, Herald-Sun

Home plate umpire Brian De Brauwere had his hands full last night. He was on the crew (at first base) back on May 1st when the Bulls played the PawSox up in Pawtucket. Veteran catcher for the PawSox, Humberto Quintero, chunked a full-strength throw into Bulls catcher Luke Maile’s gut and later in the game spiked Hak-Ju Lee. We summarized the aftermath at the end of a post back on May 3.

De Brauwere's first big challenge came in the 2nd inning. Cory Brown was attempting to score from second base and to everyone (except the one guy who mattered) it sure seemed like Brown made it past the tag. So we’d have to say he (De Brauwere) missed his first chance.

Corey Brown slides under Humberto Quinetero's tag
Photo by Sue Roth

If Quintero got a gift then, the Bulls Maile in the 5th did not. Again, folks in the stands figured that Boog Powell in left field made a perfect throw home to catch the runner. De Brauwere did not agree.

Maile tags Jamile Weeks
Photo by Sue Roth

However, as they say in some circles, payback …

Even after wearing out the grass between home and the pitcher's mound — Quintero must have gone out the mound 15 or 20 times last night trying to sort out the PawSox pitching crew; he was the main reason the game went on for 3½ hours — in the 8th the Bulls managed to load the bases. Luke Maile hit a very pretty double that cleared the bases putting three runs across and putting the Bulls ahead 8-7.

Even more fun in addition to Maile's 3 RBI ensued. Boog Powell singled and Maile moved to third base. Ryan Brett and Mikie Mahtook struck out and J.P. Arencibia came to bat. Boog Powell attempted a steal of second base. On the throw, Luke Maile headed for home. So we were seeing double steal in action. Powell beat the throw to second and the second baseman threw home. Quintero blocked the plate without the ball as he waited for the throw (remember he’s an old-school guy). Catcher’s interference was called and the run scored. Luke Maile, the young catcher Quintero had essentially slugged in the gut back in May had three RBI plus had stolen home for a fourth run (in the books it will go down as an error on the catcher)! So, in the eyes of WDBB, umpire Brian De Brauwere had redeemed himself.

It got better when he threw PawSox manager Kevin Boles out of the game a few minutes later. Boles was last seen flipping a bird at the ump. Here’s hoping he gets whacked with a serious fine for that bit of childishness.

Lots of other thrills in last night’s game as the Bulls seem refreshed from their break. Richie Shaffer showed a ton of plate discipline as he drew three walks and got a RBI on a bloop single. Corey Brown got two doubles. The team batted around twice and came from behind twice, something not typical in this year’s Bulls.

Roberto Zarate actually looked very good for 4⅔ innings, but that previously mentioned call at home and then an uncharacteristic error by Corey Brown messed things up for him. Similarly, C.J. Riefenhauser got some solid defense from catcher Luke Maile and almost got out of a bad start to the 8th. But then a 3-run homer had him with at least a blown save. He ended up, however, with the oddity of a blown save stat and a win stat.

Best of all from the pitching side is that, at least for this game, the Kirby Yates of 2014 came out of the bullpen and struck out the side. That is a very, very good sign for the Bulls.

Outside the game —

• Scanning down the Pawtucket roster we see our old friend Ronald Belisario looking very odd in his brand new PawSox hat. Expect we’ll see him the next day or so.
• Last night the paid attendance 10, 370 and it looked like almost all of them actually came to the game. Good vibe, even if some of them were members of the Red Sox Nation.

The Durham Bulls at the All-Star Break - Part 2 - Individuals

Pitchers

Unlike Part 1's look at team performance, looking at individual pitching performance for a minor league team is much more of a problem. As mentioned, the Bulls have had 30 players throw the ball this year, but 6 of those don’t really count. Several others have only made very brief appearances before going up to the Rays or back to Montgomery (Brandon Gomes, Jim Patterson, Kyle Winkler). A few others are simply gone from the Rays system (Andy Oliver, Grant Balfour, Preston Guilmet, Matt Buschmann, Ronald Belisario). And at least one will probably make his way back up (Bryce Stowell). That doesn’t count the back-and-forths. So, take all of these charts with a grain of salt and if there’s a number that seems odd, check out the innings pitched number, we could be dealing with a very small sample size. We’ve essentially pared this down to the folks who might at start out the post-All-Star Break with the Bulls. Very likely that at least one, probably two, will not be on the active roster next Thursday.

click on chart for larger image

I’m fairly agnostic on the ERA vs FIP (Fielding Independent Percentage), so here are both in one chart, sorted by ERA. Since some folks seem to think that FIP says more about the future, then a high FIP/low ERA seems weaker than the opposite. Overall, this is not a particularly impressive set of numbers. Only Scott Diamond among those left standing in the starting pitcher crew has particularly good numbers. Andrew Bellatti has been with Tampa Bay or on the DL most of the season. Jhan Mariñez looks awfully good, and Jim Miller has been something of an iron man keeping things alive. The best Bulls starter, Matt Buschmann, and the best reliever, Ronald Belisario, didn’t make it through the season in the Rays system. (Voice from back of head — “Get over it, Chris, they’re gone” Yeah, but… )

The Walks and Hits per Inning Pitched (WHIP) stat shows some of the weak spots on the crew.

Lastly, our home-brewed measure of pitching efficiency, or pitches per out, also sorts out in an interesting way.

Hitters

This table is sorted by wOBA, a newish hitting stat that has a great reputation. Mostly it tracks OPS, on-base percentage plus slugging, but the stats geeks think it works better. Also included is Weighted Runs Above Average (wRAA), a number that speaks to me as a way to judge how much a player is contributing to the team. What jumps out for 2015 is how much Taylor Motter has contributed to the Bulls this year. He has a terrific wOBA and a team-leading wRAA. Well-deserved All-Star, even if he didn’t play.

Tim Beckham was just called up, but I left him on the list just to show where he fit among the rest in his short time with the Bulls this year. We will have to see if Richie Shaffer's star continues to shine. No reason for it not to. Boog Powell’s numbers will likely drop just a bit (but that means he may stick with the Bulls the rest of the year rather than get called up). What’s a considerable worry for the Bulls, Tampa Bay (likely), and the individual players, are the young men on the 40-man roster who are not doing so well — Ryan Brett, Mikie Mahtook, and Hak-Ju Lee. No doubt they can turn things around. But time is running out for this year.

Name	Age	PA	AVG	OPS	wOBA	wRAA
Richard Shaffer	24	154	.284	1.020	.449	14.4
Boog Powell	22	62	.313	.892	.410	4.0
Taylor Motter	25	361	.306	.848	.384	16.6
*Nick Franklin	24	74	.284	.829	.380	3.2
*Tim Beckham	25	43	.297	.805	.368	1.5
Corey Brown	29	282	.227	.748	.340	3.9
J.P. Arencibia	29	278	.228	.708	.321	0.0
*Hak-ju Lee	24	233	.231	.617	.289	-5.5
*Mikie Mahtook	25	262	.224	.606	.284	-7.0
Luke Maile	24	209	.188	.574	.278	-6.6
*Ryan Brett	23	167	.205	.575	.269	-6.4
Vince Belnome	27	187	.173	.530	.262	-8.1
Bobby Wilson	32	42	.167	.480	.233	-2.7

* = Players on 40-man roster of Tampa Bay Rays

Source: FanGraphs

Hitless Wonderfulness

Season: 47-42; Home Stand: 1-1
Wrap, Box, Herald-Sun

The box score really doesn’t tell the tale of the wonderful quirkiness of the first 5 innings of last night’s game. We were almost, but not quite, sad for Gwinnett pitcher Alex White. We got over it.

Here’s the oddity: Not one of the first three Bulls runs of the game were “driven” in, that is, not one of the runs came home on a Durham Bulls hit. Here’s how it happened.

The first batter, Boog Powell, got on base when the catcher could not handle the strikeout pitch. Powell went to second base when Nick Franklin walked. When Taylor Motter grounded out, pitcher to first base, Powell and Franklin were in the midst of either a double steal or a hit-and-run. At any rate, Powell went full bore around third and came home with a very pretty plate-brushed slide. One run, no hits.

In the 4th inning Hak-Ju Lee drew a walk, stole second base, went to third base after a deep fly out to center field by catcher Bobby Wilson, and came home on a Vince Belnome sacrifice fly to left field.

In the 5th inning Taylor Motter walked, stole second, moved to third on a fly out to right by J.P. Arencibia, and came home on a sacrifice fly to right by Tim Beckham.

How cool is that? Three runs on no hits and the Bulls were ahead 3-2 going into the bottom of the 6th.

Then the Bulls did start hitting and the wheels really came off for the Braves. Hak-Ju Lee batted twice in the inning, doubling and scoring the first run on a Vince Belnome ground rule double, and striking out to end the inning. In the meantime the Bulls romped. The most exciting moment came from Tim Beckham’s bases-loaded single that cleared the bases and left him on third base when the throw from right field sailed into the Braves dugout.

Meanwhile, the Braves batters were taking shots at Bulls starting pitcher Scott Diamond. The first line drive hit him in the legs and he shook that off. A line drive in the last of the 3rd inning, however, went off his pitching arm and he left the game. More news today.

The recently maligned (by WDBB) bullpen came in for 6⅓ strong innings. Jeff Riefenhauser, led off and got the win. He was by WDBB favorite Jhan Mariñez for a 50 pitch, 2⅔ stretch. The game was closed out by Everett Teaford. Everett Teaford? What’s he doing in relief? That’s what he was doing for the Rays when he was up there and even though they’ve taken him off the 40-man, it looks like he’ll will be, at least for one night, a member of the relief crew.

Outside the game —

• Matt Andriese, top rider of the Durham Bulls/Tampa Bay Rays carousel is starting tonight. I’m guess he’s become a personal friend of whomever schedules Tampa-RDU flights. I’m not entirely sure, but I think there are seven transactions involved Andriese this year, none of them injury related. 
• Richie Shaffer was off to the futures game. Good luck today.
• Game time today 1:05. Need to get your praying done early.

Can't Handle the Clippers; Ruggiano Rules

Season: 40-35; Trip: 0-1
Wrap, Box, Columbus Dispatch

Looks like Matt Moore is ready to go to the bigs. As for a AAA team from Columbus, Ohio, not so ready. Against the Clippers he’s 0-2 (10.1 innings, 12 hits, 5 ER, 2 HR, 3.97 FIP, 4.35 ERA).

It’s possibly a measure of how desperate the TB Rays are to have a hitting first baseman that we saw young Richie Shaffer start at that position last night. Shaffer has a grand total of 16 appearances at the position, all in the 2012 and 2013 Arizona Fall League. As for regular season baseball—not ever. Wonder if he even has a glove? But there he was last night, just in time to not quite figure out a popup that dropped for a hit and let two runs across.

Meanwhile, the new Durham Bulls were mostly quiet against the Clippers, losing their fifth game in a row against them. Hak-Ju Lee, of the grand slam home run the other night, was ejected in the 3rd inning for arguing balls and strikes, something that seems to happen a lot to him this year. New outfielder Boog Powell was 1 for 3 in left field.

The scheduled second game wasn’t played because of poor field conditions. The plan is to try to have another double header today, first game at 4:00 today.

Outside the game —

• For the forty-leventh time this season we are reporting that Tim Beckham is on his way to the Bulls. We’ll believe it when we see it. Who will be the odd man out in the Bulls infield? My money is on Ryan Brett, but the Bulls could give up on Vince Belnome or Hak-Ju Lee. My track record on such predictions is woeful, however.
• Justin Ruggiano, thought by some to be the best outfielder in Durham Bulls history and who was recently DFA'd down from the Seattle Mariners, hit three home runs at Triple-A Tacoma yesterday.

Bulls Hitters at Mid-Season

We last looked at the Durham Bulls hitters as of May 17th. Now we are only two games from the Bulls’ mid-season. So how are hitters doing?

[Note: We used a cutoff of 50 plate appearances to generate our list. Players below the 50 plate appearance cutoff were Bobby Wilson, Juniel Querecuto, Mayo Acosta, and Nick Franklin]

This table is sorted by Weighted on Base Average (wOBA), which is one of those newish stats that makes a lot of sense once you dig into it. It essentially weights the various ways a batter can get on base. The explanation at the link might help. The second not-usual stat is Weighted Runs Above Average (wRAA). That stat compares the player to the rest of the league in terms of runs contributed.

The players marked by an asterisk are on the Tampa Bay Rays 40-man roster. The players marked with a strike-thru are players who have been with the Bulls and might be coming back before the year is out. Butler went up to the Rays and hasn’t come back yet (and is doing so well that he might not). Curt Casali and Jake Elmore went up, Reginatto came back up from Montgomery and was just sent back down.

Richard Shaffer is new to the Bulls and has the least number of plate appearances of the group. But his numbers are superb. Alexi Casilla remains very high, but he has spent a lot of time on the DL in the last month, as shown by his relatively low plate appearances. Deserving of special mention is the exceptional year that Taylor Motter is having.

The last column in the table is the change in wOBA since the May 17th. The best performances are of  Alan Dykstra and Corey Brown, both of them going from negative wRAAs to positive.

I was surprised at J.P. Arencibia’s numbers. Subjectively, I thought he was doing better than that. I remain very worried about the season that Mikie Mahtook, Vince Belnome, and Hak-Ju Lee are having (as are they, I am sure).

Name	Age	PA	AVG	OPS	wOBA	wRAA	Change
Richard Shaffer	24	82	.300	1.090	.484	9.6	NA
*Joey Butler	29	94	.317	.892	.414	6.2	NA
Alexi Casilla	30	134	.328	.865	.399	7.4	-.018
*Jake Elmore	28	110	.326	.814	.395	5.8	.025
Taylor Motter	25	285	.291	.759	.349	5.4	.008
Corey Brown	29	222	.236	.759	.347	3.9	.035
Allan Dykstra	28	159	.214	.712	.344	2.5	.063
Eugenio Velez	33	222	.276	.711	.335	2.0	-.006
*Curt Casali	26	132	.205	.674	.325	0.2	.039
J.P. Arencibia	29	206	.230	.701	.320	-0.4	-.039
*Mikie Mahtook	25	198	.239	.647	.302	-3.1	-.040
Leonardo Reginatto	25	134	.269	.606	.284	-3.8	-.031
Luke Maile	24	173	.200	.574	.281	-5.3	.018
Vince Belnome	27	162	.180	.554	.278	-5.3	-.021
*Hak-ju Lee	24	178	.235	.588	.275	-6.2	.019
*Ryan Brett	23	122	.205	.558	.262	-5.4	NA

What wOBA Means

wOBA
Excellent	.400
Great	.370
Above Average	.340
Average	.320
Below Average	.310
Poor	.300
Awful	.290

How to Win a Marathon

Season: 35-26; Home Stand: 3-0
Wrap, Box, Herald-Sun

The finish of this longest game of the year (4:12) is well-covered at the links, including the heroics of infielder Leonardo Reginatto who now has a place in the 2015 Durham Bulls record books as a pitcher.

But how in the world did they get there when they had a 7-3 lead going into the 6th inning? Well, I’d like to blame the Tampa Bay Rays, who told the Bulls not to start Matt Andriese, so they had to go with Jordan Norberto who had never started a game in his professional career, and who was, by WDBB’s measures, the Bulls’ worst reliever. But Norberto got out of his 2+ innings in decent shape. The Rays also took away a reliever, Preston Guilmet, which came into play later on.

But we have to admit that the first big mistake was leaving generally superb reliever Jim Miller in the game with two outs in the 6th. Jared Sandberg was ready to take him out since he was over 50 pitches and C.J. Riefenhauser was ready to go. Sandberg, who seems to be quicker with the hook that Charlie Montoyo, even went out to the mound. But Miller apparently talked Sandberg out of pulling him. Didn’t work. The very next batter hit a home run and the IronPigs were then 4 runs back at 7-3. Riefenhauser came in to finish out the 6th.

Andy Oliver, not the Bulls’ best reliever, but not the worst either, came on in the 8th, struck out a batter, then loaded the bases with three quick walks. The last man standing in the Bulls’ bullpen was closer Ronald Belisario. Yes, it was true that this would be his 12th appearance in the last 21 Bulls’ games, but that’s what closers do, right? This was to be, however, a 5-out save and Belisaro had only attempted that twice before this year: one save and one loss. On the other hand, the Bulls really did not have a choice in the matter. The bullpen was empty.

A run scored on an infield out at first and the next batter flied out. The Bulls got the run back on a Reginatto double in the bottom of the inning, so they went into the 9th with a comfortable 3-run lead. After all, Belisario does lead the IL in saves.

A walk, a single, and a home run (by former Bull Russ Canzler), and the game was tied. The marathon began. Young Brazilian infielder Reginatto kept the Bulls in the game until the IronPigs pitching faded in the bottom of the 12th. Note that the rules of the game meant Reginatto also had to keep on coming to bat, which he did in the 12th. He was hit by a pitch and was on 2nd base when Taylor Motter’s home run brought home Hak-Ju Lee to win the game.

Outside the game —

• As mentioned, Preston Guilmet has been called up. Enny Romero is coming back. Kirby Yates was taken off his rehab status and is coming on to the Bulls roster.

In the wings —

• According to the Tampa Tribune’s Roger Mooney, Matt Moore will have a rehab start with the Durham Bulls on June 18. That would be their first home game after the Bulls get back from their current trip.

The Bulls are now alone in first place in the International League South Division.

More Banging; Switch Pitching

Season: 34-26; Home Stand: 2-0
Wrap, Box, Herald-Sun

The Bulls had their second big hitting game and a superb pitching performance by Scott Diamond (who has quietly established the best won-loss record of the Bulls starting crew).

Cory Brown led the wrecking crew with two home runs and 5 RBI, but some base running antics also helped. We’ll get to that.

Hak-Ju Lee was in the game for the first time in over two weeks. Just a bunt single at bat. He handled a bunch of opportunities in the field, but also made a throwing error trying to get a double play started. Overall, he looked fine.

We have to admit that from the stands we sometimes (usually) can’t know what’s really going on, but it sure looked like IronPigs pitcher Phillipe Aumont went through a mild meltdown in the bottom of the 5th and then came fully unraveled in the 6th, helping the Bulls pick up their four runs in that inning.

It started with Taylor Motter getting to first base on a walk with one out. Aumont did his best to keep him on base, but Motter eventually stole second while J.P. Arencibia was batting. Motter did quite a bit of dancing off the base and then Aumont came off the mound and started shouting at him. Arencibia came out of the batter’s box and there was a general yapping among the crowd of players and umpires, but apparently no warnings issued. Might have been, not sure, a dispute over Motter stealing signs/indicating pitch location. At any rate, Aumont struck out Arencibia and got Dykstra on a fly ball.

Next inning Eugenio Velez reached first on a single and immediately stole second base and started dancing. Numerous pickoff attempts/steps off the mound had little effect, but Aumont did get a K and a fly out. But then things crumbled. Leonardo Reginatto got to first on the shortstop’s throw into the dirt and Velez scored. Then Aumont got called on a balk. Lots of yammering back and forth with the home plate umpire. Reginatto went into his dance off second base and Aumont served up a single to Ryan Brett and Reginatto scored. That was it for Aumont, who left the field muttering, loudly, and glancing at the ump. The next batter, Cory Brown, hit his second home run of the day off of Aumont’s replacement, Cesar Jimenez.

As I said, sitting up in the stands you can never know just what's going on, but it sure looked like the Bulls baserunners got inside Aumont's head, to his and his  team's disadvantage.

Kirby Yates, one of WDBB's favorite guys, is back in the Durham Bulls bullpen, officially on a rehab assignment. He is far from being his old self and it was surely handy that the Bulls had a 7-1 lead when he came in. Three doubles, a home run, a wild pitch, and only one out before Jhan Mariñez came in to put out the fire.

In the wings —

• Rays star and former Bull Matt Moore pitched a couple of scoreless innings down in Port Charlotte. Box.

Outside the game —

• If you are intrigued by the idea of an ambidextrous pitcher, as I am, here’s a couple of videos. The first is about his glove. What I find interesting is how long he’s been working on this skill (and having a glove designed) and how natural he is switching the glove around. He’s been doing this since childhood. The second shows the first several batters he faced in his major league debut.

Beautiful Boomer

Season: 33-26; Home Stand: 1-0
Wrap, Box, Herald-Sun

Watching a Durham Bull hit a grand slam home run is one of the great thrills a fan can have. The first one I’ve witnessed this year came last night from J.P. Arencibia with Leonardo Reginatto, Cory Brown, and Taylor Motter on base in the 3rd inning. Over the Blue Monster and a very pretty thing it was.

By the end of the night Arencibia had 5 RBIs on the homer and a double. Taylor Motter had a perfect evening going 3 for 4 with a walk. Everyone else, except for Eugenio Velez got a hit or two. Nice night for the Bulls hitters.

Which helped, because while Matt Buschmann certainly had a much better outing than his last where his Game Score was a miserable 33, last night it was just a so-so 52. Decent enough, but in need of the run support that he got.

Early on in the game we got to see what looked to be two failures of the modern enthusiasm for shifting players around. The very first Lehigh Valley batter got a triple off of the shift (he later scored) and in the 4th a single off of a shift moved a runner to 3B and he scored later on. The successes/failures of shifting are not something I actually watch all that closely (and would not be able to track efficiently under any circumstance). There must be some data out there if the coaches and managers are going to all this trouble. Watch manager Jared Sandberg at the next game and you will see what I mean. He is routinely signaling position info to his players.

I also wonder if this puts an additional stress on the pitcher to locate his pitches in support of the shift?

Two former Bulls were in the Lehigh Valley lineup last night. They were both 0-fer, so they did no harm. Russ Canzler was a major star for the Bulls back in 2011. Since that time he has AAA  time with Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, the Yankees, and twice in the Phillies’ system. I worry every time he comes to bat against the Bulls.

Jayson Nix was with the Bulls for 55 games last year coming to the Bulls from the Phillies. He left in August and got some major league time with Pittsburg and Kansas City. He started this year in the Baltimore system with the Norfolk Tides and now has a few games back in the Phillies system. He made a couple of nice plays at second base last night.

Outside the game —

• Hak-Ju Lee came off the disabled list yesterday. We can expect to see him in a game soon.
• Vince Belnome has been spending his time on the disabled list growing a mohawk. Hoping he comes back soon and re-captures some of his old form with or without the new hair.
• Discovered Cracker Jack for sale at the last concession stand on the first base side. Scratched that itch and won’t feel guilty at the 7th inning stretch any more. All is right with the world.

Welcome to the New Durham Bulls!

Season: 25-22; Home Stand: 1-0
Wrap, Box, Herald-Sun

When the Bulls took the field last night not one of the players on the infield started the season with the Bulls. Not one. We won’t count catcher Luke Maile. Starting pitcher Matt Andriese has only had three appearances with the Bulls. First Baseman J.P. Arencibia’s first game was in mid-April. At second base was Leonardo Reginatto who began the season with the Montgomery Biscuits and played his first game for the Bulls on April 23, but he has gone back to Montgomery once along the way. At shortstop was Juniel Querecuto, who was called up from the Single A Charlotte Stone Crabs just yesterday. And at third base was Richie Shaffer who was called up from the Montgomery Biscuits on Sunday.

This, of course, reflects the chaos down in St. Petersburg, but the Bulls have a few of their own homegrown problems. On the DL and leaning against the dugout railing last night were, as reported in the Bulls Game Notes,  Hak-Ju Lee (left hand laceration), Vince Belnome (shoulder), and not seen, but on the list, Alexi Casilla (hamstring).

Meanwhile on the field the Red Wings’ Jason Wheeler went 5 innings allowing only one baserunner, Luke Maile. But the 6th didn’t go so well. Maile led off with a single. New guy Juniel Querecuto hit a double; Taylor Motter singled those two home. Leonardo Reginatto singled. Eugenio Velez singled. Curt Casali doubled home 2 runs. That was then end of Wheeler’s night. But after a K and an intentional walk of Corey Brown, the other new guy, Richie Shaffer, hit a sacrifice fly to bring in the last run.

By the way, after his extraordinary start where he had a slash line on his first appearance of 800/.800/2.200 (Batting Average/On-Base Percentage/Slugging) to go with 3 RBI; Richie Shaffer’s numbers have plummeted to: .571/.500/1.571 with 4 RBI on 7 at bats. Still not too bad.

Outside the game —

• As mentioned, there’s chaos down in Tampa Bay. Tim Beckham got turned around on his way to Durham and started at shortstop for the Rays last night. He went 1 for 3 in their loss to the Seattle Mariners. Jake Elmore was called up from the Bulls, started in left field, and was 2 or 2 with a walk.
• By the way, note who is playing center field for the Seattle Mariners: Long time Durham Bull, and member of the All-DBAP team,  Justin Ruggiano. I had lost track of him.
• The really important news is that the Bull Durham Beer Company is brewing and serving. I am far from expert on the subject of beer, but I tried the Lollygagger Kolsch and liked it.
• Speaking of beer, I commend to you the dedicated research and explication reflected in the "Beers of Coca-Cola Park" by fellow Triple-A blogger KramsKorner up Lehigh Valley way. If there's someone out there who'd like to take on the challenge of doing something like this for the DBAP, please let me know. But the bar has been set pretty high, I'd say.

Buschmann Rules

Season: 22-22; Trip: 3-4
Wrap, Box, RailRidersBlog

The Bulls pulled back up to .500 with their second win in a row, giving every appearance of coming out of their slump. But also give credit to Matt Buschmann for another superb outing (Game Score: 77).

I wasn’t listening, nor have I read any follow-up, but pulling Jordan Norberto after just two batters does not look good. Here’s hoping that he’s OK.

Meanwhile, a much-reduced player crew took the field and put together a three-run 5th inning that was enough to win the game.

Outside the game —

• By much reduced, I mean really much reduced. In the last few days three infielders have gone on the disabled list: Hak-Ju Lee, Vince Belnome, and Alexi Casilla. Leonardo Reginatto was called back from Montgomery and Tim Beckham is on his way, but the next couple of days are going to be tricky. As far as I can tell, today the Bulls have one player on the bench, whomever isn’t catching. Catcher Mayo Acosta is probably traveling with the team and could probably be activated, though.
• Pitcher  Enny Romero went to St. Petersburg, pitched three innings, and is coming back. Talk about a long walk from and to the bullpen! He did his job, but did walk in a run.
• To take his place, Bulls reliever Preston Guilmet was called up. He has 14 appearances in the majors, 4 in 2013 and 10 last year with Baltimore, so he’s been there before. Good luck!

My Last Game Score Chart

After two days of looking at Game Scores over time, what about individuals? Here’s the average game scores this season for Durham Bulls starters. It’s a pretty close match to our view of them measured by other stats. Beginning to think this may be a pretty useful for evaluating starters. Note that here in AAA not all starting pitchers are destined to remain starting pitchers. And a not-so-good sign for the Bulls is to note that #2 and #3 are on the 40-man and are already going back and forth to the Rays.

Update: Third Baseman Richie Shaffer called up from Montgomery Biscuits [stats]

A Win Against the RailRiders!

Season: 22-22; Trip: 2-4
Wrap, Box, Scranton Times-Tribune

Yes, this win was aided by the exceptional generosity of RailRiders pitchers and fielders (8 walks, 3 errors, 2 unearned runs), but you know what, the Bulls will probably be happy to take it. Over the last 10 games, the Bulls have lost 8, and 5 of those losses were to these RailRiders. It was nice to see the win.

I have mixed feelings about Everett Teaford. His ERA is up there at 5.50. His average Game Score (44) isn’t all that great. But he did a good job last night. Preston Guilmet got his first save of the year. He had 10 last year with the Norfolk Tides, so maybe we’ll see more of him in a closer role.

Mikie Mahtook went 1 for 5 last night with 3 K’s. He’s had 19 strikeouts in the last 10 games as his batting average has dropped down to .256. Worrisome.

But young Leonardo Reginatto is back and making the most of it, including a run scored and an RBI last night while batting in the 9 spot.

Outside the game —

• Vince Belnome was put on the disabled list yesterday, joining Hak-Ju Lee. That was the 59th transaction of the year.
• Alexi Casilla did not play last night.
• Two more games and the Bulls are back in town for 9 games over 11 days. Tomorrow’s game is their last game in the North Division in 2015. 
• An interesting analysis of the Tampa Bay region as a sports venue over at Rays Index. Attendance is a big issue down there. The implication is that the area has more sports than they can support. 
• Locally, however, we have one more baseball team, the Holly Springs Salamanders, a Coastal Plains League team playing in Holly Springs nice new park.

More on the Game Score stat —

Here’s the similar look at the Game Score stat I did yesterday, except for the Tampa Bay Rays. The circled data points are the anomalies — a below average GSc that the team won, above average GSc the team lost. What jumped out to me is how someone (hitters or relievers?) is not following up on good work by Jake Odorizzi. He had two terrific starts in the period (and one 49) and still the Rays lost the games.

click on chart for larger image

Walk-Off Losses; Rosterizing; and the Game Score Stat

Wrap, Box

The Rays don’t seem to know what they want Matt Andriese to become. He’s had 7 appearances with the Rays this year, three not-very-good starts and 4 relief appearances. With the Bulls he’s had a relief appearance and this start, which began well, but didn’t end all that great, followed by Jordan Norberto, who was awful.

Season: 21-22; Trip: 1-4
Wrap, Box, Scranton Times-Tribune

The Bulls then traveled to Moosic, Pennsylvania for a re-match against the RailRiders. Dylan Floro had a brilliant start, his best of the year, but Andrew Bellatti, just back from Tampa Bay couldn’t hang on.

Outside the game —

• Hak-Ju Lee has gone on the disabled list for an injury to his hand. I’ve missed all the details, but he was spiked on his glove hand and left the game Wednesday night.
• Leonardo Reginatto is back up from Montgomery and played last night.
• The team’s best hitter, Alexi Casilla, left game two on Tuesday evening and has not played since. First reported as a hamstring problem, but if someone’s got more current information, please add.
• Pitcher Everett Teaford went on the temporarily inactive list when Andrew Bellatti was added to the roster.

Game Score?

The Game Score stat and the importance of starting pitching.

I’ve been reading up on Bill James’ “Game Score” stat recently and tracking the Bulls (and the Rays) starting pitchers.

Game Score is a way of evaluating the performance of the starting pitcher. Overall the computation is pretty simple and fairly intuitive. And baseball seems to agree since it’s showing up in box scores.

Here’s how it’s calculated:

Start with 50 points. Add 1 point for each out recorded, (3 points per inning). Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4th. Add 1 point for each strikeout. Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed. Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed. Subtract 2 points for each unearned run allowed. Subtract 1 point for each walk.

And here’s one take on what it means (from the Wikipedia link):

The game score concept expands on Major League Baseball’s official definition of a “quality start”. MLB defines a quality start as six or more innings pitched while allowing three or fewer earned runs. The game score system defines a quality start as a game score above 50.
The advantage that the system has over the official definition is that it allows a statistician a better view of the degree of quality in a pitcher’s performance. Game scores can be quantified, and a pitcher’s performance tracked over time. It is also possible to compare different pitchers. If one averages a 60 and another averages 55, presumably the first pitcher has had a better season.

Does it pass the “so what?” test?

Maybe.

This chart shows the game scores of Bulls starting pitchers for the last 15 games. This has not been a good stretch for the Bulls, they’ve only won 4 games and they’ve lost 11. How does that track against starting pitcher performance? Pretty well. The circled scores are the only three anomalies of the 15. Otherwise it sure looks like an above average game score is associated with a team win (3 out of the 4 wins had above-50 game scores) and a low game score with a loss (9 out of 11 losses had below-50 scores). Please note that the wins and losses shown are team's wins and losses, not the pitcher's.

It sure looks like a good part of this recent tough run can be attributed to starting pitching.

click on chart for larger image