Monday, July 29, 2013

Durham Bulls Hitting

We haven’t looked at the Bulls hitters since June 28 and they've had quite a few changes since then. Evan Frey came and went, Juan Apodaca is no longer with the Bulls, Kevin Kiermaier has joined the team (but only has a few plate appearances), and Brandon Guyer has gone on the disabled list. So something of a mess, but the Bulls are still winning.

The players marked with * signs are on the Rays 40-man, which means that it’s fairly easy to call them up. But if a player isn’t on the 40-man (such as Leslie Anderson or Vince Belnome) then the Rays will have to make room one way or the other (the Rays are very creative about that when they need to be). I've left Guyer on the table just to remind us how well he'd been doing, and Craig Albernaz is there since he could easily show up in the near future. Data are from FanGraphs. Table(s) are sorted by wOBA values.

For more about the lesser known measures of Weighted Runs Above Average (wRAA) or Weighted On Base Average (wOBA) click on the links.

Durham Bulls as of July 29, 2013

Vince Belnome404.321.91925.9.412
Leslie Anderson380.319.90822.1.404
*Brandon Guyer373.300.82712.7.374
Kevin Kiermaier17.231.7190.3.355
Cole Figueroa391.301.7595.4.348
*Tim Beckham378.276.7320.6.332
Mike Fontenot350.267.717-1.0.327
Jason Bourgeois333.292.719-1.2.326
*Chris Gimenez272.241.663-2.1.321
*Ryan Roberts90.247.675-1.1.315
Shelley Duncan266.223.701-3.6.313
Craig Albernaz88.237.587-3.9.275
Jesus Flores115.200.526-8.2.241

So, how do the Tampa Bay Rays look by the same metrics? Pretty good. Wil Myers is getting a lot of at bats and is doing very well. His home runs push his wOBA up nicely. I think the sabermetrics guys have some estimates about how well these numbers translate from AAA to the majors. (if someone out there knows, jump in.) The only direct comparison we have here is Ryan Roberts, whose batting average is essentially identical, as is his wRAA, and his wOBA is 12 points better with the Bulls.

But even if the ∆ between AAA and MLB is substantial, it sure looks Anderson and Belnome could add value to the Rays. Fortunately for the Bulls, that’s not going to happen before September, however, and maybe not then. But these numbers are pretty compelling. One obvious candidate among the Rays to be moved out, if needed.

Are any of the Bulls trade bait? Maybe.

Tampa Bay Rays as of July 29, 2013

Wil Myers144.328.8917.4.379
Evan Longoria440.276.86118.5.367
James Loney386.321.83814.6.361
Luke Scott246.264.8178.0.354
Kelly Johnson312.254.7907.0.341
Matt Joyce333.240.7595.3.333
Desmond Jennings443.263.7606.5.332
Ben Zobrist442.268.7455.8.330
Sean Rodriguez142.264.7150.5.317
Jose Lobaton198.253.687-1.3.305
Ryan Roberts151.248.688-1.2.303
Yunel Escobar370.247.674-4.0.300
Jose Molina203.236.603-7.0.270
Sam Fuld136.200.546-7.2.246

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