Cork Gaines over at RaysIndex has just published his 2010 Tampa Bay Rays Trade Value Index. It amounts to a very interesting methodology for rank ordering players in the Rays system, primarily players on the 40-man roster, but he plugs in a few deeper prospects as well.
Seven current Bulls are on the list: Jeremy Hellickson (2), Desmond Jennings (9), Jose Lobaton (24), Mike Ekstrom (29), Fernando Perez (33), Justin Ruggiano (34), and Dale Thayer (36).
I don’t consider myself enough of a Rays fan to ponder the deeper implications of this list, except perhaps to notice that a couple of very high quality ball players we Bulls fans know well are not on the list — that is, most of the seventeen other players on the Bulls roster.
More evidence, if readers needed any, that I don’t have much of a grip on the business of baseball.
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
Remember This
Game 45: Durham Bulls 1, Pawtucket Red Sox 0
Season: 25-20
Wrap, Box, Herald-Sun, Indy Week
Next year for sure, and maybe even later on this year, we brave few (3,404 paid, but you know what that means) are gonna be able to tell our seat mates that we were there when Hellickson threw his one-hitter against the Pawtucket Red Sox. I am continually amazed at the way this fragile-looking young man just seems to get better and better. We could (and did) second guess the walk called in the 7th — they really were in there ump, both the 2-2 pitch and the 3-2 pitch, but the single was clean enough.
For the first time this year, I think, Winston Abreu went back-to-back days. He’s gone back-to-back innings, with notable lack of success. Three up, three down in the 9th. But not without an exceptional array of mound-pacing, eyeglass-wiping, cleat-cleaning distractions. He is something to watch out there. Must drive the batters nuts.
In a quiet, pretty game like this one my focus sometimes drifted to what I hope are transient concerns. Justin Ruggiano made a very nice play in left field in the 8th, but he struck out all three times he came to bat. Fernando Perez got two hits in the Bulls blowout of the PawSox on Sunday, but they (plus one in Columbus on the 17th) are the only hits in his last 31 at-bats. Neither player looks comfortable at the plate.
In the realm of trivia, we note that the Bulls have played in three 1-0 games this year, winning one and losing two (PawSox and Redwings). The Bulls have had 10 one-run games winning four and losing six. So it seems that close games are not our thing this year. Blowouts, which we will arbitrarily set as games won by more than four runs (one grand slam), are another matter. The Bulls have been in 18 of those, winning 13. That just tells us what we already knew. The 2010 Bulls are a big inning team.
Regarding last night’s game, let me commend Bryan Strickland’s piece in the Herald-Sun and Mike Potter’s in Indy Week. Both get good quotes from Montoyo, Hellickson, and others (Warren Harding, Mike?).
On another matter, I had to DVR the last episode of “24” last night. That means that I don’t yet know if my man Jack Bauer has, yet again, saved us from the evil-doers of the world. Gonna have to find some time to take a look.
Season: 25-20
Wrap, Box, Herald-Sun, Indy Week
Next year for sure, and maybe even later on this year, we brave few (3,404 paid, but you know what that means) are gonna be able to tell our seat mates that we were there when Hellickson threw his one-hitter against the Pawtucket Red Sox. I am continually amazed at the way this fragile-looking young man just seems to get better and better. We could (and did) second guess the walk called in the 7th — they really were in there ump, both the 2-2 pitch and the 3-2 pitch, but the single was clean enough.
For the first time this year, I think, Winston Abreu went back-to-back days. He’s gone back-to-back innings, with notable lack of success. Three up, three down in the 9th. But not without an exceptional array of mound-pacing, eyeglass-wiping, cleat-cleaning distractions. He is something to watch out there. Must drive the batters nuts.
In a quiet, pretty game like this one my focus sometimes drifted to what I hope are transient concerns. Justin Ruggiano made a very nice play in left field in the 8th, but he struck out all three times he came to bat. Fernando Perez got two hits in the Bulls blowout of the PawSox on Sunday, but they (plus one in Columbus on the 17th) are the only hits in his last 31 at-bats. Neither player looks comfortable at the plate.
In the realm of trivia, we note that the Bulls have played in three 1-0 games this year, winning one and losing two (PawSox and Redwings). The Bulls have had 10 one-run games winning four and losing six. So it seems that close games are not our thing this year. Blowouts, which we will arbitrarily set as games won by more than four runs (one grand slam), are another matter. The Bulls have been in 18 of those, winning 13. That just tells us what we already knew. The 2010 Bulls are a big inning team.
Regarding last night’s game, let me commend Bryan Strickland’s piece in the Herald-Sun and Mike Potter’s in Indy Week. Both get good quotes from Montoyo, Hellickson, and others (Warren Harding, Mike?).
On another matter, I had to DVR the last episode of “24” last night. That means that I don’t yet know if my man Jack Bauer has, yet again, saved us from the evil-doers of the world. Gonna have to find some time to take a look.
Monday, May 24, 2010
Splish, Splash
Game 43: Durham Bulls 18, Pawtucket Red Sox 1
Wrap, Box
Game 44: Durham Bulls 0, Pawtucket Red Sox 1
Season: 24-20
Wrap, Box, Herald-Sun, Indy Week
The park was nearly empty at four o’clock Sunday afternoon. We were guessing that maybe the word had not gotten out about the plan to finish up Saturday’s game first, then play a seven-inning second game. The Red Sox took the field and we settled into our seats. Bulls were ahead 5 to 0 from the previous day. Desmond Jennings on second, Elliot Johnson on first, Justin Ruggiano at bat. On the first pitch of the restarted game Red Sox pitcher T.W. Large plonks Justin and we are off. Dan Johnson comes to bat and hits a single and gets his second RBI of the game (he got one the day before on a sacrifice fly). By the end of that inning (the second) the Bulls are ahead 10-0. The next time Justin comes to bat (the next inning as it happens) Jennings and Elliot Johnson are on base again, this time Jennings on third and Elliot on second. T.W. [T. J.] Large hits Justin again. Dan Johnson comes to bat again. This time he hits a grand slam, picking up four more RBI. At the end of that inning the Bulls are ahead 14-0. In the 5th inning Ruggiano comes to bat with nobody on base, does not get hit by a pitch, does hit a double and is on second with Dan Johnson comes to bat. Dan hits another home run collecting two more RBI. Pretty good day(s) for Dan and for the team after losing five in a row. By now the park is pretty full.
From a pitching point of view this game (and the next) looks really odd. Aneury Rodriguez got the start, but only went two innings because of the rain and Richard De Los Santos picked it up on Sunday and went five innings for the win. Winston Abreu, who had not pitched since May 18th got an inning in as did Heath Rollins, who had also not pitched since May 18th.
Can’t wrap up this game without mentioning the spectacular catch against the wall by center fielder Desmond Jennings to end the 7th inning. Only fair that it was a deep fly ball of Red Sox center fielder Josh Reddick, who made a couple of nice catches himself during the day.
The second game was to be a nice, short seven inning affair started off by Carlos Hernandez who was, as noted earlier, due for a good day. It was Negro League Day and both teams were in replica uniforms. Off in the distance black clouds kept boiling up until they boiled over in the second for the Bulls third rain problem in three days. On Friday in Toledo the game was cancelled. On Saturday the game was postponed until Sunday. And on Sunday the game was delayed by an hour and a half.
When the Bulls got back on the field, I was at home watching on Channel 251. Usually I like a low-scoring game, but this really didn’t have the feel of a pitcher’s duel. Could be all the fidgeting the pitchers were doing in their ill-fitting uniforms. Pitcher’s discomfort seemed to reach a peak in the sixth [fifth] when the Red Sox Cabrera [Paranto] got face to face with home plate umpire Fran Burke. But somehow Pawtucket manager Lovullo got tossed instead of Carbrera [Paranto] (TV did not pan to argument).
Jeremy Hellickson is on for tonight. The weather forecast, unfortunately, looks almost exactly the way it has for the last two nights. Here’s hoping that we can get in a full game for a change.
Update: A sharp-eyed reader has noted several errors in today's post. Corrections are in italics. It was Paranto that got into it with the ump, and it was in the fifth not the sixth. And it's TJ Large, not TW Large. I guess that there's a reason why Terry W. Large wants to be listed at T.J., probably something along the lines on why B.J. Upton is called B.J. At any rate, messed that up a bit. Can't even plead that the rain screwed up my score sheet, since I was home by the time of the dustup with umpire.
Wrap, Box
Game 44: Durham Bulls 0, Pawtucket Red Sox 1
Season: 24-20
Wrap, Box, Herald-Sun, Indy Week
The park was nearly empty at four o’clock Sunday afternoon. We were guessing that maybe the word had not gotten out about the plan to finish up Saturday’s game first, then play a seven-inning second game. The Red Sox took the field and we settled into our seats. Bulls were ahead 5 to 0 from the previous day. Desmond Jennings on second, Elliot Johnson on first, Justin Ruggiano at bat. On the first pitch of the restarted game Red Sox pitcher T.W. Large plonks Justin and we are off. Dan Johnson comes to bat and hits a single and gets his second RBI of the game (he got one the day before on a sacrifice fly). By the end of that inning (the second) the Bulls are ahead 10-0. The next time Justin comes to bat (the next inning as it happens) Jennings and Elliot Johnson are on base again, this time Jennings on third and Elliot on second. T.W. [T. J.] Large hits Justin again. Dan Johnson comes to bat again. This time he hits a grand slam, picking up four more RBI. At the end of that inning the Bulls are ahead 14-0. In the 5th inning Ruggiano comes to bat with nobody on base, does not get hit by a pitch, does hit a double and is on second with Dan Johnson comes to bat. Dan hits another home run collecting two more RBI. Pretty good day(s) for Dan and for the team after losing five in a row. By now the park is pretty full.
From a pitching point of view this game (and the next) looks really odd. Aneury Rodriguez got the start, but only went two innings because of the rain and Richard De Los Santos picked it up on Sunday and went five innings for the win. Winston Abreu, who had not pitched since May 18th got an inning in as did Heath Rollins, who had also not pitched since May 18th.
Can’t wrap up this game without mentioning the spectacular catch against the wall by center fielder Desmond Jennings to end the 7th inning. Only fair that it was a deep fly ball of Red Sox center fielder Josh Reddick, who made a couple of nice catches himself during the day.
The second game was to be a nice, short seven inning affair started off by Carlos Hernandez who was, as noted earlier, due for a good day. It was Negro League Day and both teams were in replica uniforms. Off in the distance black clouds kept boiling up until they boiled over in the second for the Bulls third rain problem in three days. On Friday in Toledo the game was cancelled. On Saturday the game was postponed until Sunday. And on Sunday the game was delayed by an hour and a half.
When the Bulls got back on the field, I was at home watching on Channel 251. Usually I like a low-scoring game, but this really didn’t have the feel of a pitcher’s duel. Could be all the fidgeting the pitchers were doing in their ill-fitting uniforms. Pitcher’s discomfort seemed to reach a peak in the sixth [fifth] when the Red Sox Cabrera [Paranto] got face to face with home plate umpire Fran Burke. But somehow Pawtucket manager Lovullo got tossed instead of Carbrera [Paranto] (TV did not pan to argument).
Jeremy Hellickson is on for tonight. The weather forecast, unfortunately, looks almost exactly the way it has for the last two nights. Here’s hoping that we can get in a full game for a change.
Update: A sharp-eyed reader has noted several errors in today's post. Corrections are in italics. It was Paranto that got into it with the ump, and it was in the fifth not the sixth. And it's TJ Large, not TW Large. I guess that there's a reason why Terry W. Large wants to be listed at T.J., probably something along the lines on why B.J. Upton is called B.J. At any rate, messed that up a bit. Can't even plead that the rain screwed up my score sheet, since I was home by the time of the dustup with umpire.
Sunday, May 23, 2010
Starting Pitcher(s), 23 May
Although it is not absolutely certain that Richard De Los Santos will be picking up the game that was stalled last night, it seems likely. So here’s his chart. He had been getting his ERA under control until his last game. With any luck he will continue on. Too bad that Aneury Rodriguez didn’t get but two innings last night. He was looking OK.Grumbling in the sky outside. Hope that we are not in for a repeat.
Carlos Hernandez’ last six starts have been 7 innings, 4 innings, 7 innings, 4 innings, 7 innings, 4 2/3 innings. So we are due for a 7 inning start. Since it’s a 7 inning game, we could be in luck.Webworld
- RaysProspects took a look at the Bulls week. Not pretty.
- DRaysBay has updated their “watch list”. A couple of Bulls on it.
- We knew baseball players were famously superstitious. We didn’t know it extended into the stands.
- Jason Hanselman over at RaysIndex takes a very close look at former Bull Ben Zobrist.
Twenty Hour Rain Delay
Tarp Pull, Durham Bull Athletic Park, 22 MayI clipped the image above just before leaving for last night’s game. My plan was to use it to show the world what a clever guy I am. What you see is the Bulls crew starting to take the tarp up at about 6:20 last night. I got to the game just as an Aneury Rodriguez pitch to Pawtucket’s Josh Reddick got whacked foul beyond the stands on the left field side of things.
Rodriguez got a one-two-three inning and then the Bulls we know and love this year came to bat. Four hits, three stolen bases, and four runs later things were looking good. We even had a spectacular sound and light show going on to the north of us, with lightning bolts reaching out of the sky towards the SunTrust building.
Rodriguez let a runner on with a walk in the 2nd, but otherwise wasn’t having a problem (worrisome long fly balls, though). Perez led off our half with a single, stole second, went to third on Jenning’s single, and scored on Elliot Johnson’s single (his second hit of the night). Have I mentioned that Pawtucket’s Boof Bonser seemed to think he was pitching batting practice?
Nobody out, one run in, runners on first and second, coach (manager?) coming out to the mound, couple of lightning strikes nearby, ump waves his mask at everyone. Game delayed. Bulls are ahead 5-0.
Double-agent and reporter Mike Potter reported the beginning of the game for the Providence Journal and for Indy Week. What kind of gig is that? But he does pick up a couple of good quotes from both managers.
So today, if the rain goes away, we can settle in for maybe five hours of baseball! Yahoo!
The suspended game starts at 4 o’clock and goes normal 9 innings. Next game starts 30 minutes (or so) after and goes for seven innings. Should be home by midnight.
Looks like Richard De Los Santos will start the suspended game and Carlos Hernandez will start the second game.
Saturday, May 22, 2010
Starting Pitcher, 22 May
Aneury Rodriguez has been erratic. His first two games were terrific, but he’s been variable since. He lost his last start, but so did every other pitcher on the Durham roster. The Bulls' team FIP is 3.99 and the team ERA is 3.72, so Aneury is one of the guys pulling the numbers up. Let’s hope for a good day.Our opponents are the Pawtucket Red Sox. They come in at 19-23 with a team wOBA of .328. Our team wOBA is .362. Their team ERA is 4.58. Boof Bonser (no kidding, that’s his name), ERA 7.64, is scheduled to start for the PawSox, who have lost the last three in a row.
So, we’ve got a statistical edge and we are, after all, the friendly home town crowd.
Updated Charts
Since the Bulls are back, time to look at how they are doing. On the season, the Bulls are 23-19, four games above .500. Although the Bulls have had a bad stretch, as you can see, our opponents in the South Division have been waiting for us. Five teams in the International League have better records than the Bulls now, they just aren’t in the South.
Run production and run differential is way down over the last several games, enough to start pushing the trend in an ugly direction. Some of that might be that we had a terrific run and now are seeing some falling off. This next home series against Pawtucket and Rochester should give us some clues about the future.
This shows the cumulative Weighted On Base Average (wOBA) of the Bulls in green and the cumulative wOBA of their opponents in red for the last 20 games. As expected, as the season goes along, these curves start to flatten out (the Bulls have had some 1644 plate appearances so far this year). If this chart is to be useful, the trick will be to tease out trends and point out what changes, if any, seem to be occurring. This chart sure seems to show that the problem over the last several games has not been our defense/pitching (the red line), but rather our offense. That is, we aren’t getting many extra base hits. Another way of saying that is that the problem has been more our lack of run production, not keeping our opponents from scoring.
Lastly, just for grins, here are the wOBA plots for the last 20 games for the Rays. What jumps out is the difference in the Opponents wOBA numbers. That is, the Rays pitching and defense is really good. The hitting? Could be better.
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