More Bulls Below the Border

Several more current/prospective Durham Bulls are showing up in the winter leagues. Jim Donten over at Rays Prospects is doing a terrific job with daily coverage of how they are doing, so I won’t repeat that here. However, to add to the list originally reported, catchers Jose Lobaton and Dioner Navarro, and pitchers Brian Baker, Joe Bateman, Carlos Hernandez, and Aneury Rodriguez are spending time in Mexico, Venezuela, and the Dominican.

For a glimpse of the life, keep an eye on Nicole Johnson's blog, Life of the Baseball Wife, which has a entry on a Mexican League game and another on what it's like to be called up for the playoffs.

Marching Out of Georgia

Game 121: Durham Bulls 1; Gwinnett Braves 4
Season: 74-47
Wrap, Box

First inning, bases loaded, one out, no runs scored. Does that sound a bit familiar?

Hit into three double plays. How about that?

Those two scenarios seem a bit typical for the last couple of weeks. The four errors do not. That isn’t like the Bulls at all and I’m pretty sure we won’t see that again. At least I hope not. Nor losing a series. That hasn’t happened very much, if at all, this year.

Brian Baker did a very credible job. As did new guy Paul Phillips. Only one earned run was scored against the pitching staff.

Leaving Georgia yesterday was probably a good feeling. Too bad the Bulls only get to Fort Mill, SC and the Knights. Don’t know just what the accommodations there are like, but from a distance the field does not look like a great place to play.

The overall pitching situation is not getting better. The radio reported that Virgil Vasquez has knee problems. So that puts us with three (four if you count Jason Cromer) pitchers who aren’t readily available: Heath Phillips, Carlos Hernandez, and now Virgil Vasquez. Maybe what we really need to call up are reinforcements for trainer Roger Fleming.

As a side note, the roster on the Bulls website is different from the roster on the International League website. The IL roster shows Fernando Perez on the disabled list. However, the IL’s transactions list also tells us that outfielder Emeel Salem has gone back to Montgomery. Wonder if he had to drive himself to and from Laurenceville, GA? And did he enjoy the ride? Does he get to keep the uniform? The hat and batting helmet?

Jeremy Hellickson won another game yesterday. Less and less likely we’ll see him in a Bulls uniform again. But we didn’t think that would happen anyhow. A puzzle will be the status of Dan Johnson once Carlos Pena comes of the DL. He’s played in ten games and his numbers are not good at all. Nevertheless, his wOBA of .346 is better than a bunch of other players with the Rays (Aybar, Kapler, and more). So maybe someone else will get pushed off the ledge. Likely to depend as much on perceived team dynamics and contractual arrangements as immediate value to the team. Whatever’s decided, my guess is that it will only be for a couple of weeks until the rosters expand in September.

Pitching Challenges

Game 118: Durham Bulls (Tampa Bay) 3; Gwinnett Braves (Atlanta) 4
Wrap, Box
Game 119: Durham Bulls 2; Gwinnett Braves 4 (7 innings)
Game 120: Durham Bulls 6; Gwinnett Braves 2 (7 innings)
Season: 74-46; Games Remaining: 23; Home Games: 10
Wrap, Box (119), Box (120)

To say that the Bulls’ pitching situation has been difficult over the last two days is not exactly accurate. Chaotic might be a better word. In Friday’s game Heath Phillips pitched one inning, gave up four runs, left the game, and is now reported to be on the disabled list. Carlos Hernandez (who came off the disabled list a couple of days ago) came in, pitched two innings, and is now reported to be back on the disabled list. Aneury Rodriguez came in to hold things in check for five innings, but the offense could not quite catch up. Plus, since Rodriguez was supposed to start Saturday, Montoyo and X. Hernandez had to do some scheming.

As an aside, I like watching Carlos Hernandez pitch. For those new to the Bulls, he’s been around for much of the last two years. He started 21 games last year and he’s got 18 appearances this year. And yet I also worry about him. If he’s back to the DL you’ve got to wonder if he will be around to finish the year with us. I hope so.

Outside of the pitching problems, Friday’s game also saw new outfielder over from Montgomery, Emeel Salem, take left field and hit a double in his second at bat.

Because Aneury Rodriguez pitched Friday, Charlie Montoyo had to get creative for the double-header yesterday. He started the first game with new guy Brian Shouse. I couldn’t chase down the last time he started a game. However, in 10 years in the majors (467 games) he doesn’t have a one. Unfortunately, the baseball gods don’t necessarily smile on either ingenuity or necessity. Shouse gave up four runs in the first inning and that was enough for Gwinnett to take the game. Need to mention Darin Downs. He pitched 4 innings of 1-hit baseball. Very nice performance. He’s looking better every day. Nice to see Elliot Johnson back in the lineup.

Back to Shouse — Chris Richard is no longer the “old guy” in the clubhouse. Shouse (41) has him by several years.

Which brings us to the second game of the double-header and a very nice 2-inning start by Jake McGee. Four K’s, still no walks for the left-hander. Followed by 2 innings by Dale Thayer, 2 by R.J. Swindle (who got the win), and one by Winston Abreu. Brian Baker will be starting today and, if he can hang on, the pitching situation might settle down just a little bit.

Nice to see the 13-hit performance by the offense.

Roster Moves

Of course, as soon as the Bulls leave town the Rays will cascade down a bunch of roster changes. It's a plot on their part to keep Bulls fans in the dark.

On the other hand, maybe they read my post yesterday and decided to do something about it.

First of all, thanks to DRR for the heads up.

As mentioned earlier, Carlos Hernandez came off the DL yesterday and may start tomorrow. Probably on a low pitch count/inning limitation.

Brian Shouse, on a Rays minor league contract, disappeared from the DL part of the Bulls roster today, but is reported to have been pitching in Charlotte, Florida and on his way to the Bulls. Left-handed, side-arming reliever. Probably a “lurker” for a September plus up for the Rays. They seem to like sidearming specialists (except for Joe Bateman whom they have been ignoring, so far).

Rocco Baldelli, in the same report, is heading for the Bulls as well. No idea whose roster he will end up on.

Stacy Long is reporting that outfielder Emeel Salem is on his way from Montgomery. If I were a betting man, I’d be betting that Fernando Perez is heading for the DL.

Welcome to August/September in Triple A. I glanced at the changes for Gwinnett and they’ve got many more than the Bulls.

Durham Bulls At the Break — 3

Pitching

As the last piece of this series, let’s take a look at pitching. Pretty darn good.

The first chart is the team trend over the last twenty games. This may at first glance, look fairly flat, but flat at what level, you may ask? And the answer is, at a pretty good level, since we won 13 out of those twenty games.

At the individual level we use Fielding Independent Percentage as a metric (think ERA, it’s almost the same thing at these sample sizes). The pitchers marked with a * are on the Tampa Bay 40-man. What I find interesting about this chart is how well our relievers are doing. Everyone knows that Hellickson is a first rate pitcher, but notice that most of our relievers are better than the team average. The implication is that, even on a bad day, we always have a chance.

I’ve thrown in strikeout to walk ratio mostly to once again show R.J. Swindle’s unusual numbers. But notice how well Virgil Vasquez does on both charts. He’s probably the guy to watch in the second half of the season.

What does the rest of the season look like? A couple of these guys are on the cusp of moving up/moving on.

R.J. Swindle is not on the 40-man, but according to this post yesterday, he has a 15 July opt out clause. Opt out as in, “Call me up or call me gone.” That’s Thursday folks. We would do well to remember what the Rays did last year in similar circumstances. They called up Winston Abreu, let him sit in the bullpen for a few days, and traded him to Cleveland. If history were to repeat itself, R.J. might be back in time for the playoffs. Somehow I don’t think that will happen. I, along with a lot of other folks [WDBB, Adam Sobsey, Jason Collette], would love to see him get a chance to see if he can handle major league hitters.

Another guy I’d love to see get his shot is Joe Bateman. He isn’t on the 40-man either, but, as was pointed out yesterday, the Rays have got several open 40-man slots.

How about the guys who are on the 40-man?

• Jeremy Hellickson — the Rays, unless they really, really need him, will probably leave him with us until September.
• Dale Thayer — insurance for a TB injury. Dale’s basic numbers are pretty good, but June was not his best month.
• Mike Ekstrom — have to say that he’s probably available for a trade

Not in Durham are two more pitchers on the TB 40-man, Jake McGee and Alex Torres. Both are with the Montgomery Biscuits. Torres is having a good year, McGee isn’t. I think we’ll see Torres before the end of the year. Much like Hellickson showed up in late July of last year.

How about the rest?

Let me first say how much I like almost all of these guys. Going forward, in addition to the guys already mentioned, I’ve got to say that I’m really looking forward to watching Virgil Vasquez and Brian Baker get in a bunch of innings; Winston Abreu show the International League how to close out a game; and Dale Thayer getting back on track. Unfortunately, I’d guess that Heath Phillips and Aneury Rodriguez may not be long with the team. If Darin Downs had done better, one of them might be on the bubble right now. Richard De Los Santos is doing a good job. We need him to stick around as well. I like having a lefty, but Carlos Hernandez, whom I also like a lot, may not be with us all that much longer either.

Some of you guys out there understand this much better than I do. What do you think?

Win One; Lose One; Take a Break

Game 89: Durham Bulls (Tampa Bay) 5; Norfolk Tides (Baltimore) 3
Wrap, Box

Game 90: Bulls 4; Tides 5
Season: 55-35
Wrap, Box

The Bulls go into the All-Star break as the best Triple-A team in baseball—the International League or the Pacific Coast League. They should be proud of that. They have worked really hard to put together this remarkable record.

Yesterday Brian Baker did a terrific job of standing in for Jeremy Hellickson. Joe Dillon had his best game since coming back from his hamstring injury, and with some help From Elliot Johnson, Angel Chavez and Dioner Navarro, led the Bulls to their 55th win.

Today Carlos Hernandez seemed to be having a tough time of it, even though it was really only a messy 3rd inning that made the difference.

Atypically, the Bulls offense did not get on track until the 9th. At that point, with the Bulls down by five runs, they picked up four quick ones on a Perez walk, Furmaniak single, Ruggiano home run, Dan Johnson double, and Navarro single. (Why, you may ask, was Omar Luna in for Elliot Johnson as a pinch hitter early in the inning to strike out for the first out? Good question. Haven’t a clue.) It all came to an end with Chris Richard grounding into a double play.

Take a break guys. A very, very well-deserved break.

I’ll put together a couple of charts that take a closer look at the team over the next couple of days.

Might take a look at the Futures Game tonight — ESPN2, 6 PM, just to stay in touch.

Shut Out

Game 80: Durham Bulls 6; Louisville Bats 0
Season: 49-31; Home Stand: 6-1
Wrap, Box, Herald-Sun, Indy Week, Louisville Courier-Journal

A list for our contemplation and reflection:

• Another shut out (8 so far).
• Four wins in a row.
• 6-1 in this home stand.
• 7-3 in the last ten games.
• 18 games over .500.
• 9 games ahead of Charlotte in the South Division (who just reached .500 for the first time since 21 April when we pushed them over the edge).

I’ll admit that an 11-day home stand is too much for me. As much as I love the Bulls, the trek to Durham every night got to be a bit too much. So I watched it on TV (Channel 151 in the new Time-Warner line up).

Carlos Hernandez did just fine in his return to the rotation. Actually, both starters did just fine. The Bats' Malone had a very good 7 innings.

With Jennings taking a couple of days off, Fernando Perez is having some opportunities at the top of the batting order. He got a bunt single to lead off last night and stole his 19th base a few minutes later. He doubled in Dioner Navarro in the 5th for what was the winning run. Not sure why he didn’t sacrifice bunt in the 8th with Luna on first, no outs.

Home runs by Navarro, Chavez, and Ruggiano in the five run 8th really slammed the door on the Bats.

How about that extraordinary play by Angel Chavez in the 6th? On his knees, behind third base, across his body throw that got the runner, finished the inning, and saved a run. That one play might have made all the difference even without his 2-run homer in the 8th.

In spite of our three wins over them, my impression is that the Bats are a much better team than their 36-45 record indicates. Obvious problems in the relief pitching area.

Regarding relief pitching: Time to point out the terrific job Brian Baker has been doing for us this year. He is certainly one of the keys to our success.

No one has scored a run off him for three games and over 13 innings. He’s appeared in 23 games including two starts. He’s 7-0, which gives him the best won-loss percentage on the team. He is, in essence, our only long reliever. Although, now that Hernandez and Vasquez are back in the rotation, it looks like Rodriguez will be filling that role as well. At 48+ innings, he’s got the most time on the mound of any of the relievers. Why wasn’t he also on the All-Star list? Possibly because middle/long relievers don’t get much respect. Possibly because the Bulls already had three guys on the team (plus the manager).

He’s been working his way up the Rays system since 2005. Is this the year for the 27-year old? Could be.

Justin Garcia, a reliever who joined the Bulls from Montgomery while they were on their last road trip, has been sent to the Charlotte Stone Crabs. Unless I missed something, we didn’t see him here in Durham. At 4 ⅔ innings, he is the leading candidate for this year’s Moonlight Graham Award for pitchers. Craig Albernaz, unfortunately, leads the position players.

The News & Observer has an article on the Bats’ Aroldis Chapman, the fellow who plunked Dan Johnson with a 99 mph pitch and Dioner Navarro with a 102 mph pitch the other night. Background on his defection, separation from his family, and Cincinnati’s approach to getting him ready for the big leagues.

Durham Bulls Pitching

We haven’t put up a look at Bulls pitching for quite some time. Since we just went past the midpoint of the season, probably a good time to take a look.

First, this chart that shows the continuing cumulative trends of Fielding Independent Percentage (FIP) and Earned Run Average over the last 20 games. Over this same period the Bulls have won 11 and lost 9. Thus, no real surprise that the trends are pretty flat. At this level of play, that’s mostly a good thing.


Taking a look at the individual pitchers, I’ve rank-ordered them by their FIP numbers. Their ERA numbers are not much different, with the exception of the newcomers.

Darin Downs and Justin Garcia’s numbers are not to be trusted this early in their Triple-A experience. Carlos Hernandez is on the disabled list, but I’m hoping that he will be back soon.

No surprise that Hellickson is up near the top, or Winston Abreu for that matter. Joe Bateman and R. J. Swindle are looking pretty good, too.


The strikeouts/walks chart is mostly to show off the ridiculous performance of R. J. Swindle. His bar represents 3 walks and 24 strikeouts.

Overall, Bulls pitching looks pretty good.

Saw Virgil Vasquez in uniform a day ago. When activated, someone here is going to get pushed out (probably Garcia or Downs). Haven’t heard anything about Jason Cromer (also on the DL). His year is beginning to look like a washout.

Late Start, But That’s OK

Game 64: Durham Bulls (Rays) 13, Gwinnett Braves (Braves) 6
Season: 39-25
Last 10: 8-2
Wrap, Box

Five o‘clock start time, so we arrived outside the DBAP at 4:45 — along with the storm. We had no choice but to dash from the parking deck to the Tobacco Road Cafe. Our first time and we liked it. Food choices interesting, many were nicely spiced, prices OK. Best of all it was a good way to kill time while we waited for the tarp to get pulled. We came over to the DBAP just after they pulled the tarp, but then they put it back on. It was a little after six then and we were beginning to understand that baseball, when it happened, was not going to be over for a long time. We went home.

Back home I launched a search for the Bulls on Time-Warner cable. It was not easy and the Bulls website, previous emails to the Bulls, or the Time-Warner website were not helpful. The Raleigh News & Observer offered a cryptic clue — WRAZ DT2. I punch up Channel 151 and some kids’ show is on. But, 7:00 we suddenly were treated to a shot of the DBAP and the voices of Neil Solondz and Scott Pose. All is well!

All is well, that is, until Carlos Hernandez gets bludgeoned for four runs in the first. A home run, a double, a triple, and two singles. Really pleased now that we left. Once this gets really painful I could just turn it off. However (trumpets sounding in the distance), JJ Furmaniak starts us off with a single, the first of his three hits (another single and a double, plus a walk); Desmond Jennings follows with an RBI triple, the first of his two hits (a single, plus an RBI sac fly and an RBI walk); Matt Joyce follows with an RBI double the first of his five hits (two more doubles and two singles). Two runs are in and things are looking much better. Plus Carlos settles in over the next several innings. In the 4th the Bulls bat around and put 6 runs across, the key moment being Ryan Shealy’s bases clearing three RBI standup triple.

We’ve mentioned Jennings and Joyce, their hitting continues to improve. Fernando Perez made a brilliant over-the-shoulder catch in the 2nd, and maybe, just maybe, is sneaking out of his slump (two singles). Chris Richard is a bit snake bit, but he’ll come out of it. He usually does.

Overall, a very, very nice 5-1 home stand.

Odds and Ends

• I’m beginning to appreciate what Scott Pose brings to Bulls broadcasting. He and Neil make a very good team. Humor. Perspective. None of the big ego some former major leaguers bring to a broadcast booth. Plus Scott has a ton of time in AAA ball (as well as the majors), so he brings a lot of on-the-field experience to the table. For the curious, here’s his major league and minor league stats. Didn’t know that he was an alum of the University of Arkansas (as am I). Which did not, of course, influence these comments.

• Elliot’s injury is a “quad” strain.

• Here’s a kick in the head. The Bulls got on a bus right after the game for an overnight ride to Laurenceville, GA (that’s the town the G-Braves play in). The Braves spent the night in Durham and are flying out today. Who’d want to wish them ill, but it’s entirely possible that the bus ride from Hartsfield Airport on the south side of Atlanta to Laurenceville, on the north side, could take almost as long as the Bulls ride. We can hope.

• The Bulls are not back until June 25th. Very weird scheduling.

Pretty Night; Pretty Baseball

Game 59: Durham Bulls 7, Buffalo Bisons 0
Wrap, Box, Herald Sun, Indy Week

Bulls pitching has been superb in recent days, and Carlos Hernandez’s one-hit performance last night is a a good example. He had probably his best outing of the season and certainly the postgame comments recorded by reporters for the Herald-Sun and Indy Week show that all the team knew it. The Bisons only managed to get three base runners and the Bulls got their fourth shutout in 10 games. I should also correct a recent comment I made that Richard De Los Santos was our #2 pitcher numbers-wise. That simply is not the case. Sorry, Carlos. You are well established as our #2 and you showed it last night (but Richard is getting close). See the charts below for a comparison.

Sobsey over at Indy Week has a good discussion of some of the statistical features of where the Bulls are this year.

Wasn’t that a simply pretty night for baseball last night? The weather could not have been better for baseball, and the baseball was pretty too. Pretty, that is, except for the pink. I know, it’s all for a good cause, but the Bulls really didn’t look all that great in pink. Here’s hoping that the cause made a few zillion dollars off the jerseys, though.

Joe Dillon was spotted in catcher’s gear warming up Joe Bateman. That’s gotta be a good sign if his hamstring can handle working out of a squat.

Here’s a bit more information regarding Neil Solondz’s visit to the jukebox between the ocean and the bay down south.

Adam Sobsey notes that former Bull Jason Childers is in town and promises an interview.

Still trying to find out if Jon Weber has found a home. In the meantime, here’s a reflective piece on his career from a Yankees blog.

Rays Prospects providing detailed coverage of the MLB draft.

Starting Pitcher(s), 23 May

Although it is not absolutely certain that Richard De Los Santos will be picking up the game that was stalled last night, it seems likely. So here’s his chart. He had been getting his ERA under control until his last game. With any luck he will continue on. Too bad that Aneury Rodriguez didn’t get but two innings last night. He was looking OK.

Grumbling in the sky outside. Hope that we are not in for a repeat.

Carlos Hernandez’ last six starts have been 7 innings, 4 innings, 7 innings, 4 innings, 7 innings, 4 2/3 innings. So we are due for a 7 inning start. Since it’s a 7 inning game, we could be in luck.

Webworld

• RaysProspects took a look at the Bulls week. Not pretty.
• DRaysBay has updated their “watch list”. A couple of Bulls on it.
• We knew baseball players were famously superstitious. We didn’t know it extended into the stands.
• Jason Hanselman over at RaysIndex takes a very close look at former Bull Ben Zobrist.

Twenty Hour Rain Delay

Tarp Pull, Durham Bull Athletic Park, 22 May

I clipped the image above just before leaving for last night’s game. My plan was to use it to show the world what a clever guy I am. What you see is the Bulls crew starting to take the tarp up at about 6:20 last night. I got to the game just as an Aneury Rodriguez pitch to Pawtucket’s Josh Reddick got whacked foul beyond the stands on the left field side of things.

Rodriguez got a one-two-three inning and then the Bulls we know and love this year came to bat. Four hits, three stolen bases, and four runs later things were looking good. We even had a spectacular sound and light show going on to the north of us, with lightning bolts reaching out of the sky towards the SunTrust building.

Rodriguez let a runner on with a walk in the 2nd, but otherwise wasn’t having a problem (worrisome long fly balls, though). Perez led off our half with a single, stole second, went to third on Jenning’s single, and scored on Elliot Johnson’s single (his second hit of the night). Have I mentioned that Pawtucket’s Boof Bonser seemed to think he was pitching batting practice?

Nobody out, one run in, runners on first and second, coach (manager?) coming out to the mound, couple of lightning strikes nearby, ump waves his mask at everyone. Game delayed. Bulls are ahead 5-0.

Double-agent and reporter Mike Potter reported the beginning of the game for the Providence Journal and for Indy Week. What kind of gig is that? But he does pick up a couple of good quotes from both managers.

So today, if the rain goes away, we can settle in for maybe five hours of baseball! Yahoo!

The suspended game starts at 4 o’clock and goes normal 9 innings. Next game starts 30 minutes (or so) after and goes for seven innings. Should be home by midnight.

Looks like Richard De Los Santos will start the suspended game and Carlos Hernandez will start the second game.

Carlos Emerging?

Game 35: Durham Bulls 6, Toledo Mud Hens 1
Season: 21-14
Home Stand: 4-4
Streak: W1
Wrap, Box, Herald-Sun, Indy Week

I think we’ve given plenty of hints here that, in spite of a couple of decent starts, we were skeptical about Mr. Hernandez’s prospects this year. Last night, however, was one heck of a pitching performance. Very efficient at only 82 pitches in 7 innings, no earned runs, 1 walk, 5 strikeouts, one heck of a job. Things are looking up in the starting pitching category. Couple of good quotes from Hernandez in the Herald-Sun and Indy Week links.

The Johnsons, Dan and Elliot, are worth comments. Dan almost hit for the cycle, with a home run, single, and double in his first three at bats — although there was considerable speculation on just how Dan would make it to third base for a triple. Maybe the ball gets into the right field corner and hides itself for a few seconds. Elliot got a RBI, but was snakebit in the field, making two errors. Not like him. Hope he gets over it.

Time to comment on what appears to be the sheer strength of catcher Alvin Colina. He’s got a serious arm. Don’t think I’d want to be the pitcher taking his throws back to the mound. And when he gets a hit, the bat just cracks. A line-drive hitter, his hits get over the wall from time to time, but mostly, as yesterday, they reach the wall as doubles, seven so far this year. Really like the combination of Colina and Lobaton. Not sure that I’m looking forward to Jaso’s return.

That was a really scary moment in the 4th, wasn’t it? Toledo catcher Max St Pierre let fly with a bullet throw on an Elliot Johnson steal attempt, and hit his pitcher, the unfortunate Lauren Gagnier, in the head. To be honest, I didn’t see it, I was watching Elliot dash for second base. What I did hear was the radio report by Neal Solondz, who apparently was looking at a TV replay. Fortunately, he was able to walk off, but we got no further reports on Gagnier’s condition. For trivia buffs, this was the first Triple A start this season for both catcher and pitcher, the first Triple A start ever for Gagnier.

Hank Blalock, subject to more speculation here, here, and here, went 0 for 4.

Warning: The following material suitable for adults only!

We need to follow up on the deep philosophical implications of our inquiries last night. Is Wool E. Bull real? Is he even a he? Is Wool E. simply a product of our collective imaginations, our psyches? Is he an Archetype? Or, is he just a guy in a suit?

In a related question we note Syd’s comment on yesterday’s post:

I don't like how the Blue Monster didn't step in and back up his teammate after his incident. This is how dissension filters into a clubhouse

We agree. We should have pointed that out yesterday. Where was the Blue Monster?

We (that is, our group behind first base) watched Wool E.’s entrance and noticed that he didn’t do a cartwheel. We further noticed that when he passed the Mud Hens dugout things were quiet (too bad — the last opportunity of the year). We were also carefully inspecting everyone in Bull employee shirts and earpieces moving around the stands last night.

We noted one wearing a knee brace. So, what else could I do but sidle up to the guy and ask, “Hi. How are you doing? How’s the knee?” He said, “It’s OK.” Then he looked at me, “You must be a season ticket holder.” I said that I was and that we had been looking for somebody who looked like they worked for the Bulls and was wearing a knee brace. But when I asked him if he was Wool E., he shook his head and pointed at Wool E. Bull out on the field.

So there you have it. Who is Wool E. Bull? Is he a suit or a man? Or even a man? Is Wool E. Bull just an Idea dancing out under the lights?

Who said baseball is boring. Great, even profound, concepts are there for the pondering on summer nights.

Durham Bulls Starting Pitcher— Thursday 13 May

Some modest changes in Carlos Hernandez's numbers since our last look. Carlos’ ERA actually improved while his FIP stayed about the same, and he lost a game. Go figure.

Just for the record, here’s the current starter/reliever set up as of today, at this moment, before warm ups start, before someone gets injured, before someone in St Petersburg gets an inspiration. Only notable change is that Rodriguez slips into Bennett slot (he had 3 innings in relief of Bennett on Tuesday, 7 Ks, 2 BBs).

Starting Pitchers

• Hellickson
• Phillips
• Rodriguez
• De Los Santos
• Hernandez

Long Relief

• Baker
• Rollins

Short Relief/Closers

• Bateman
• Eskstrom
• Swindle
• Thayer
• Abreu

Despite some questions about Phillips, Rodriguez, and Rollins, you’ve got to admit that’s a pretty good-looking list.

Bulls Go Quietly; Ready for DAP?

Photo courtesy Durham County Library and Endangered Durham

A hundred years ago parking was a problem at El Toro field. Wonder how it will be tomorrow?

Game 30: Durham Bulls 2, Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees 4
Season: 19-11
Wrap, Box, Herald-Sun, Indy Week

Last night was to have been a big night for two players who have been out of the lineup for a while, Angel Chavez and Desmond Jennings. Chavez had only missed a few days, but Jennings has been out for a couple of weeks. Jennings had a good night — single, double, RBI, stolen base. As for Chavez, well, his return to shortstop could have been better.

In his first at bat in the 2nd inning Chavez hit a solid single, but tried to stretch it into a double and got thrown out for the last out of the inning. In the 3rd Scranton had runners on first and third with one out. A classic “strike ‘em out/throw ‘em out” play didn’t quite work. Carlos Hernandez got the strike out and the runner from first was caught in a run down. But Chavez threw the ball away when the runner on third broke for home. So, instead of being out of the inning, Scranton had a run in and a runner on second. Hernandez walked the next batter and gave up a three-run homer to Scranton’s Winfree.

But all was not lost. In the 6th inning Chavez came to bat with runners on first and second and one out. Of course, this being his night to be the goat, he hit into a 3-6-1 double play.

Shake it off, Angel. Shows you what a quirky game baseball can be.

A very bright light in the evening was Heath Rollins. He had what was, by far, his best outing of the year. He went 3 ⅓ innings with 2 walks, 4 strikeouts, and used a reasonable 54 pitches to get there.

Clearly Charlie Montoyo is a member of the crowd that thinks stolen bases count for something. The bottom of the 3rd last night was a classic example of how that approach can work. With one out, Rashad Eldridge drew a walk. Eldridge stole second during Jennings’s at bat, then scored on Jennings’ single. Jennings then stole second and scored on Elliot Johnson’s single. Elliot Johnson stole second, but neither Joe Dillon or Hank Blalock could bring him in. Still, our only runs last night came off of stolen bases.

Pretty sure I saw Jeff Bennett leaning against the rail in the Bulls dugout last night. Bennett has not been seen here since April 15th when he left the game after facing two batters. Is he back? Would be nice if he were, assuming he’s healthy.

Today is the last time to see the Yankees this year, unless we meet in the playoffs.

Durham Bulls Starting Pitcher — Saturday, 8 May

click chart for larger image

Most baseball statistics are static. By that I mean when you look at them you don’t know if the player is getting better or getting worse. So I thought I’d try to draw a picture of changes over time for our starting pitchers. I’d appreciate some readers’ comments. Is a chart like this useful? I’ll keep it up through at least one rotation and then revisit. Seems to help me get my head into the day’s game.

Carlos Hernandez has had five starts this year. He’s pitched 29 innings and has a 2-0 record. He is the only left handed pitcher on the Bulls roster.

The chart plots his FIP and ERA as they changed over those five games.

FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is a number built around what a pitcher can control: home runs given up, walks, hit batters, strikeouts and innings pitched. Hernandez has given up 3 homers, walked 12, hit 2, and struck out 19. What’s worrisome is that the current trend is upwards.

ERA is really affected by small sample size and the vagaries of the team behind the pitcher, meaning the quirks of “earned” vs. “unearned” rulings. Over time, these two curves should start getting closer together. But that growing FIP curve is not a good for the future. The dropping ERA is tricky to evaluate. We'll have to see about that after a few more innings.

What does this say about Hernandez? Well, these aren’t particularly good numbers. And he’s averaging less than 5 innings per start. Hernandez ended up in 2009 with an ERA of 3.29 over 112 innings, so realistically we shouldn’t expect too much more than what we’ve seen so far. If the Bulls keep up their run production, that should be enough in most games. Still, it would be nice if he could go longer in the games.

Durham Bulls Return to Form

Game 26: Durham Bulls 10, Rochester Redwings 2
Season: 16-10
Wrap, Box

All it takes for a win is great pitching and timely hitting. If only it were that simple all the time.

Really nice to see the 2010 Durham Bulls back in form, though.

After the one-hitter we had against a knuckleballer in Buffalo, and then a three pop-up first inning against the Redwings knuckleballer Charlie Zink, the leadoff Redwing hit a home run. Things did not look good. But the Redwings didn’t score again until the 7th.

In the meantime, Fernando Perez hit a three-run homer to cap a five-run second inning. For the numbers-minded, that was Perez' first home run of the year, his 6th in two Triple A seasons, and he had 3 in his 23 games with the Rays in 2008. Elliot Johnson and Joe Dillon had good days as well. Elliot (playing short) was 2 for 4, with two doubles, a walk, 2 RBI, and he scored a run. Joe Dillon (playing second) was 2 for 3, with a home run, 2 walks, 1 RBI, and scored four runs.

The Bulls drew 6 walks last night. An interesting feature of this team is their plate discipline. The Bulls have drawn 111 walks this year and lead the International League in that category. That’s a lot of folks on the bases (and trying to steal in our case).

Jeremy Hellickson is really something. Sure hopes he stays with us for a few more months. We really need him. He pitches extremely well and gets deep into games (and efficiently, only 92 pitches in seven full innings last night). Unless or until the Rays get us at least one more starting pitcher, the more rest the bullpen has the better.

A look at the bench:

Angel Chavez (hamstring) is reported to be at 80%. The Bulls have Wednesday off, so he should be ready by Thursday morning’s game.

Desmond Jennings (shoulder) got a little bit of playing time in the 9th last night, but hasn’t had an at bat since April 22.

Justin Ruggiano had a twinge in his left bicep in an at bat in Sunday’s game. Out for an unknown, but probably short, period of time.

So, a young utility player from the Charlotte Stone Crabs named Omar Luna has joined the Bulls. I say “utility” since he’s seen time in left field, shortstop, second and third this year, although he seems to be mostly an infielder. Not stellar at the plate (1 for 18, .056). So obviously brought in for his defense. We may need that if anyone gets dinged today.

Carlos Hernandez is off to Hudson Valley, surely to return by his next turn in the rotation.

Tomorrow is the Bulls first day off of the season — 27 straight days of baseball. These kids work really, really hard.

Webworld: Stacy Long is doing a poll on who should get Rays minor league honors for April.

Running With the Bulls

Game 10: Durham Bulls 7, Norfolk Tides 2
Season: 7-3
Wrap, Box, Herald-Sun, Indy Week

Another terrific game on a wonderful afternoon. I know we’re going to get tired of seeing the Tides, but we did see some good baseball yesterday.

Carlos Hernandez did not look dominating; however, at the end of six innings he had five strikeouts, had only given up one walk and one run — pretty darn good. Elliot Johnson and Justin Ruggiano continued their improvement at the plate, Johnson with a double and a homer, Ruggiano with two singles and a homer.

I know Durham ain’t Pamplona, but we’ve sure got some Bulls running this year. In just ten games the Bulls have stolen 15 bases — Eight of them in the last two games. Hard to tell if Charlie is just being aggressive, if Tampa Bay (who is also running a lot) wants this to happen, or if we are just taking advantage of the talent we have this year. One interesting feature is that the guy you’d expect to be leading the pack, Fernando Perez, has only 4 of them. Of course, you’ve got to get on base first, and Fernando hasn’t been doing too good a job of that, yet. Elliot Johnson has 6, Perez 4, Angel Chavez has 2, and Matt Joyce, Justin Ruggiano, and Rashad Eldridge have 1 each.

Gotta say something about the human bobbleheads at bat. I know that a good batting helmet protects the players and their future, but don’t these new ones look really awful? For what it’s worth, the new helmet isn’t required in the major leagues, just the minors. Guess if your making millions you gotta look really studly. And you sure won’t in one of those hats. Wonder what would happen if a couple of players wanted to wear them? I mean, if you're making millions, wouldn't you want to protect them? To see just how awful they look, check out the photo of Elliot Johnson over at Indy Week.

Who says I don't occasionally come up with a blinding glimpse of the obvious? Another interesting feature of the 2010 Bulls jumped out at me last night. You know the scene where the manager steps up out of the dugout and taps either his left or right forearm to indicate whether he wants a righty or a lefty to come in? Montoyo doesn’t have to bother with that this year. He doesn’t have any choices. He doesn’t have any lefties in the bullpen.

Not only that, there’s only one on the Tampa Bay active roster, and only one on the Biscuits roster. Two lefties are on the disabled list, one for the Rays and one for the Bulls (Howell and Swindle), but you have to think that the Rays front office is in the hunt for left-handed relievers.

Jose Lobaton’s debut was pretty good. I will display my ignorance of the business of baseball and speculate on how he got here. Lobaton was on San Diego’s 40-man last year. When they put him on waivers to move him back to Portland (their AAA team) the Rays grabbed him. But I think when you claim off waivers you have to keep the player on your 40-man. The Rays did that, but sent him to Montgomery, where’s he’s been until last night. How good is he? I guess we’ll find out. The Rays’ system isn’t quite as short of catchers as it is left-handed relievers, but they aren’t in really good shape either.

As I speculated earlier, Tampa Bay newspapers are now reporting that the Rays catcher Kelly Shoppach may be out for a while and Jaso might stay up there longer than expected. He sure had a good start last night with two doubles, a walk, and a RBI.

Note: Video board is back.

Tides Stroll In

Tides shortstop Scott Moore tags out Durham’s Justin Ruggiano, right, during Norfolk’s win at Harbor Park. (Hyunsoo Leo Kim | The Virginian-Pilot)

Game 2: Durham Bulls 4, Norfolk Tides 6
Season: 1-1
Wrap, Box

Bulls pitching walked in two runs in the 5th inning to let the Tides get ahead 3-0, but then we got back two in the 6th and two more in the 7th to go ahead 4-3. The bottom of that inning, however, was a lesson on how quickly things can change in the game of baseball. With two outs, a single was followed by a triple, and then a potential third out became the winning run when a run-down between 3rd and home got botched. That happens. These guys are pros, but that is the sort of thing that happens when they really haven't played any games together as a team.

On the other hand, Joe Bateman got up to some of his 2009 tricks in the 8th. He struck out the first batter. Then hit the next batter. Walked the next. Gives up a single. Runner on second scores. Runner on first goes to third. Walks the next batter, so bases are loaded. Next batter grounds into a force out at home. Bases still loaded. Next batter grounds out.

So, Joe, who was my leading candidate last year as a substitute for a cardiac stress test — just take some readings before he comes in and monitor — is on track to keep the EMTs in business this year. In fact, if it’s at the DBAP just bring the defibrillator on up to 208 while Joe’s on his way to the mound.

Turns out I was wrong in a couple of my guesses about the starting rotation (that’s happened before — why once back during the Reagan administration …). Heath Rollins isn’t going to be a starter. That leads to Heath and Heath sequences such as last night. Jeff Bennett to start tonight. That leaves Carlos Hernandez and someone else. I’m sure that Neil Solondz has mentioned it, but I’ve missed it. If it’s Vasquez, then the tweet reported a while back must’ve gotten in right. You’d think the Bulls would put this kind of information out.

Justin Ruggiano got tossed out of the game last night. Let’s see if Charlie sticks with his rule of benching a player for a game if he gets tossed.

For what it’s worth, last night’s game is one of those where the numbers say we should have won, but didn’t. Aggregate OBP, OPS, wOBA, and FIP were all better than Norfolk’s. But then there’s that other one — runs scored — that sort of messes things up. Oh well, back to the spreadsheet.

For Rays fans: I think, but never trust Time-Warner, that there's a Rays-Yankees game on this afternoon.

Opening Night & Starting Pitchers

Lots of good links at the Bulls website. Take a look. To my great surprise, an article in the News & Observer. Also, looks like long-time Herald-Sun sports writer Mike Potter will be working over at Indy Week. Suggest all the links be checked out.

In another item, looks like Matt Joyce will be back with the Durham Bulls for a while. No telling what will happen with him once his rehab is done.

So, while we wait for tonight’s game, let’s start going through the roster.

Starting with, what else, the starters. Opinions, additions, comments, etc. most welcome.

Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, 23
Basics, RaysProspects, stats, more stats
Jeremy’s coming off a terrific year. Great things are expected.

Carlos Hernandez, LHP, 30
Basics, stats, more stats
What more can you ask for than 112 innings and a 3.29 ERA from a 29 year old left hander coming off surgeries and injuries? Will this be the year he makes it back to the big time? I hope so, but only after winning a bunch of games for the Bulls.

Brian Baker, RHP, 27
Basics, stats, more stats
Coming to Durham off a decent year with the Biscuits, Baker has been pretty much off the radar. Looks like he was converted from a starter to a reliever while with Montgomery last year. At 27 it’s time for him to make his mark. Have to say that he looked pretty good last Saturday.

Heath Rollins, RHP, 25
Basics, RaysProspects, stats, more stats
Also a decent year with the Biscuits, and he lent a hand in our championship run last year with a relief appearance and two starts, one no-decisions and a win. He had 22 starts with the Biscuits and six relief appearances. So I don’t know which role he’ll be in this year. RaysProspects seems to think he will be a reliever.

Heath Phillips, LHP, 28
Basics, stats, more stats
I gotta be honest and say that I don’t remember much about Heath from his stint with the Bulls in 2008. I’ve got some stats that show that he started a couple of games, but mostly pitched in relief.


Jason Cromer, LHP, 29
Basics, stats, more stats
Since the President of the Jason Cromer Fan Club is a close associate of WDBB, we will be inviting him to make some comments once Jason comes off the DL. For some of his previous comments, do a search on the blog or click on Cromer on the cloud.