Tuesday, June 28, 2011

Thinking About the Obvious

Game 77, June 27, DBAP
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees 4, Durham Bulls 3 (10 innings)
Season: 42-35; Home Stand: 4-4
Wrap, Box, Herald-Sun

Driving home last night I was thinking to myself that if Alex Cobb hadn’t gone in to pitch the 6th inning, or that if Jake McGee hadn’t gone in to pitch the 10th inning, things would have been different. I’m prone to that sort of BGOO (Blinding Glimpses of the Obvious). Of course, Cobb went one inning too long. Of course, McGee went one inning too long. The Bulls lost the game! The Bulls didn’t get a single hit between the 6th and 10th inning. When Brandon Guyer struck out with runners on first and second it was the first real chance the Bulls ever had to get ahead in the game.

Maybe I should stop saying nice things about Jose Lobaton. After yesterday’s love note he was thrown out trying to stretch a single into a double, then struck out three times.

How did Cobb look? Pretty good. Glad to have him back in the rotation. Ten days off is tricky to deal with, and it showed in the 1st and 6th.

The oddities of the day just weren’t in the Bulls favor. Yankees shortstop Doug Bernier was walked in the 6th and scored on a Luis Nunez single. Bernier was hit by a Jake McGee pitch in the 10th and scored on a Luis Nunez double. Two freebies, two runs.

And then there was the appearance of Desmond Jennings running for Felipe Lopez after Lopez’ BB in the 10th. All the reports said it was Jennings’ right wrist that was hurt. How come he was wearing a brace on his left? Does anyone really care? Probably not, not even me.

Sigh. Let’s just sit back a listen to Dirk Hayhurst ramble on about life and baseball in his terrific interview with WUNC’s Frank Statio from a couple of days ago.

Chart of the Day — Runs Scored - Runs Allowed

After 77 games the Bulls have scored 19 more runs than their opponents. They are 42-35 on the season and are one game ahead of the Gwinnett Braves in the South Division of the International League. The Pythagorean expectation is 40-37. Differences between expectation and actual are usually attributed to two possible factors, luck and/or bullpens. Your choice. Looking better than they did in 2008 or 2009, not as good as 2010. Won the South Division all three of those years, though.

The Bulls’ “parent” club has played 79 games and has scored 29 more runs than their opponents. They are 44-35 on the year and are in third place in the American League East, two games behind Boston and 2-1/2 behind the Yankees. Their “expectation” is 43-36, so they are also doing a bit better than their expectation. In their case, they are a good bit below where they were at this time in the previous three years.

click on chart for larger view

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