Monday, September 9, 2013

Matchup: The IL Governors' Cup Championship

The last time the Durham Bulls played the Pawtucket Red Sox things got completely out of hand. Back on July 22 the teams competed digging a trench down the third base line to home plate. Together they scored 27 runs on 33 hits. The Bulls won that last game 14-13, but that home series was one of the few this year that the Bulls lost at home (3-1 to the Red Sox). Way back in May, the Bulls split a 4-game series in Pawtucket. The last game of that series was the Jake Odorizzi-led no-hitter.

The PawSox had an extraordinary run beginning in early August that took them from third place in the North Division (2 games above .500) to a very solid 3½ game lead over the Rochester Red Wings by the end of the season.

In the playoffs they went back and forth with the Red Wings, ultimately winning the 5-game series yesterday.

The season stats imply a modest advantage for the Bulls across the board. Further, unlike the Indians, the PawSox seem to have had a relatively stable lineup.

In the playoffs, a 9-1 loss Saturday distorts the data a bit. Nevertheless, it looks like the Bulls have an edge in pitching while the PawSox have been hitting pretty well.

Jake Odorizzi looks to be tomorrow's starting pitcher. Surely J.D. Martin will start the next game, then it would likely be just about anyone's guess. An unknown, of course, is if either Boston or Tampa Bay is going to leave these teams alone. Both are in important races and are surely keeping an eye on their their guys in AAA.

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