Last Minute Loss; More Rosterization

Season: 6-8; Home Stand: 2-1
Wrap, Box, Herald-Sun [paywall]

I wasn’t able to make it to the park last night. Was able to listen to the 9th inning. Exciting, but the Knights closer did what closer’s do.

In the meantime...

Rosterization —

• One Rays blogger is now referring to his team as the Tampa Bay Bulls, seems apt. 
• Ryan Brett, who started the season with the Bulls and played in 7 games, then went to the Rays and played in 3 games, hurt his shoulder and went on the Rays' DL.
• Which led to  the Bulls' Jake Elmore going up to the Rays yesterday. Elmore had a pinch hit home run in his one and only at bat last night. That puts him into the statistical stratosphere of an OPS of 5.000! At least until his next AB.
• To make room on the Tampa Bay 40-man roster, they moved former Bull Jeff Beliveau to the 60 day disabled list as he heads for the operating room today to fix a shoulder problem.
• Why wasn’t Hak-Ju Lee, who is on the 40-man called up? Hard to say. But Elmore’s stats, team best OBP and third best OPS, were much better than Lee’s. 
• To fill Elmore’s slot on the Bulls, Leonardo Reginatto, a youngish infielder from Brazil who has been working his way up through the Rays system is up from Montgomery to get his first taste of AAA ball. [stats]

Outside the game —

• From time to time we get questions about the pay for minor leaguers. Turns out that at least some of them are taking the bizarre position that they should be paid at least the federal minimum wage! Imagine that! And they have filed a lawsuit. See today's feature in USA Today for more.

Durham Bulls Basics 2013 — Part 2

The Schedule

The International League schedules 144 games for each of its teams. Half of those games are played at home. So, unless you are truly a Durham Bulls fanatic, you will only have 72 chances to see your Bulls during the regular season. Although, Charlotte and Norfolk aren't all that far away ...

In 2013 the first home game (April 8) against the Gwinnett Braves is five games into the International League season. The Bulls start their season at Norfolk against the Norfolk Tides on April 4. The last home game (August 27) is against the Charlotte Knights, but the Bulls will have five more away games before the season ends on September 2.

A very important feature of the schedule is that the Bulls only play 8 games against each team outside the South Division, 4 at home and 4 away. That means that if you are a Boston fan the only chance you’ll get to see Red Sox prospects will be July 18 - 21. That’s it. They won’t be back unless both teams are in the playoffs in September. The same is true if you’re a Yankees fan (May 31 - June 3), a Reds fan (June 17 - 20), or a fan of any of the other parent clubs of teams in the North or West divisions of the International League. Said another way, the Bulls only play 40 games at home with the teams from outside the South Division.

On the other hand, if you’re a Braves (Gwinnett) or White Sox (Charlotte) or Orioles (Norfolk) fan, you’re in luck. (Well, it’s a bit difficult to call an Orioles fan as being in any sort of luck, but you get the idea.) Those teams will be here a lot this year (Charlotte - 11, Norfolk - 11,  and Gwinnett - 10 times)

The Bulls have a 9-game home stand in August, but home stands usually run 4 - 8 days. Road trips are often 8 days long, but sometimes they are shorter.

Triple-A ballplayers have a much more relentless schedule than major leaguers. They play more games with fewer days off, at least until September.

The Triple-A All-Star Game pitting the International League All-Stars against the Pacific Coast League All-Stars is set for July 17, well past mid-season, and will be played at the ballpark of the Reno Aces out in Nevada. Exactly how the players are selected for the game is something of a mystery. Fans do get a vote; however, usually the IL doesn’t bother to tell us how the voting went. The 2014 All-Star game is to be played at the DBAP.

The International League Championship (The Governors’ Cup) is decided with two rounds of best of five playoffs in September. A one-game “AAA Championship” game is to be played at the home ballpark of the Lehigh Valley IronPigs on September 17, 2013.

The Durham Bulls, as all readers of this blog must know, won the Governors’ Cup and the AAA Championship in 2009 and has won the Southern Division five of the last six years.

The 40-Man Roster

And now, sigh, let’s talk about the Tampa Bay Rays.

To clear up some possible confusion, the Tampa Bay Rays play baseball in St. Petersburg, Florida, not Tampa. That may come as a bit of a surprise to those not familiar with Florida geography (or modern marketing strategies).

Every major league team consists of 25 players on the “active” roster. Those are the guys in the games and in the box scores, traveling in chartered airplanes, and making a decent, sometimes obscene, amounts of money. An additional 15 players are added to make up the 40-man roster. In general, once a player makes it to the 25-man active roster he stays there (unless traded, sold, or designated for assignment). For players who have been around for a while, there are all sorts of byzantine rules regarding how this works. To complicate matters, last year the rules were changed allowing the major league teams to expand their roster to 26 on days that they have a double-header. What matters to Bulls fans, however, is that a Bull cannot be called up to play in a Rays game (even to temporarily replace an injured player) unless he is first on the 40-man roster.

Here in Durham we are not much interested in the active roster. What matters to Bulls fans are those 15 ballplayers who are on the Rays 40-man but not on the active roster. Members of that 15 man group usually make up the heart of the Durham Bulls.

If previous years are typical, we can expect that 11 to 12 of the players on the 40-man will be assigned to Durham and they will probably be split about 6 or 7 pitchers and 4 or 5 position players. Players on the 40-man who aren't with the Bulls are oddities a bit difficult to explain and don't really make that much difference to us. Mostly they are playing at AA and lower levels. Of the pitchers, one or two will be prospective starting pitchers, the other potential relievers. Fairly often when WDBB writes about a Bull we will mention whether or not he's on the 40-man.

Why are the players we see here playing for the Bulls? Lots of reasons. And that’s one of the pleasures of watching AAA ball. Why is this guy here? When will he be called up? Will he be called up?

The odds of being called up are pretty good. There are enough injuries and trades in a given year that almost all of the players on the 40-man who start the year with the Bulls will at least get a few days with the Rays. Some will go there and stay.

What about the Bulls who aren’t on the 40-man? Unless Tampa Bay takes someone off the 40-man, they cannot be called up. Adjustment to the 40-man roster can, and does, happen, but not very often. On the other hand, the Rays are nothing if not creative in gaming the major league player rules system.

The 40-man roster also has an effect on how the players who are with the Bulls are used. For example, pitchers may be on limited pitch counts and/or working on specific pitches that the Rays have decided the pitcher needs to develop. Relievers may be tested to see if they can do two days in a row, or “tried out” as a closer. We will see infielders playing the outfield (and vice versa).

My point is that sometimes what we see on the field is often decided in St. Petersburg, not in the Bulls’ clubhouse. The Rays really aren’t particularly interested in the Bulls’ won-loss record. So, we will inevitably see some unfortunate (for the Bulls) decisions, such as a player being called up, sitting on the Rays’ bench for a couple of weeks, then coming back to Durham with his timing shot and struggling at bat. And with this new 26 man roster for double header rule, Bulls’ pitching rotations can get really screwed up with a pitcher being called up for a spot start and then coming back.

We cannot avoid the fact that the Durham Bulls live and die at the whim of the Tampa Bay Rays front office. What’s fortunate for Bulls fans is that the Rays have invested a ton of effort into building a steady stream of talent to feed into the big team. More than that, in the Rays system very few upcoming prospects just “pass through” AAA-level ball. Time with the Bulls is a real and very serious testing ground for pitchers and hitters. That means we will get to see a lot of very talented ballplayers with first rate managing/coaching crew. Lastly, of course, without the Rays we wouldn’t have AAA ball here at all.

All of which is not going to keep me from complaining about the Rays. Hey, it’s baseball!

For  more background on the 111 years of Durham Bulls history, check out the Bulls’ web page and the Wikipedia page.

For WDBB's and other views on who are the Great Triple-A Durham Bulls see this post and this one and another from earlier this year.

If you missed Part 1, check it out here.

Who Should Durham Bulls Fans Watch This Spring?

Spring is Almost Here!

Four days from now the pitchers and catchers report for Rays Spring Training in Port Charlotte, Florida. Who should we be watching?

The 2013 Durham Bulls will be built almost entirely from the the players on the Rays 40-man roster and the 24 players on the non-roster invitation list. The Rays need to get down to 25 players at the end of Spring Training. The Bulls usually carry *(see update note) 25 players on their roster. So, just to demonstrate my extraordinary skills at arithmetic: 64 guys in Spring Training, 50 jobs — 14 guys are not going to be in either a Rays or Bulls uniform come April. 

The non-roster invitees are an interesting class of ballplayer. Some are youngsters at Spring Training to get a “taste” of the big leagues (e.g., Mark Thomas), some are players with a good bit of big league time trying to crack into the 40-man (e.g., Shelley Duncan), others are “players in waiting” the Rays have kept off the 40-man, but who will surely go to the majors some day, perhaps even by the end of Spring Training (e.g., Wil Myers), and some are AAA professionals who might be able to fill at some time next year and whom the Rays want keep looking at (e.g., Leslie Anderson and Rich Thompson). Some have contracts that have room for re-negotiation at the end of Spring Training and/or mid-season.

Once Spring Training starts we will start seeing box scores of the major league teams, but nobody will be covering the minor league training camp unless Stacy Long of the Montgomery Advertiser decides to visit. That will not matter too much to us because an oddity of Spring Training is that, for Bulls fans, most of the action is over in the big league camp. 

Who should we be watching? Lets take it position-by-position. Players in bold spent some time in Durham last year. Players with an asterisk are on the 40-man.

Catchers

Initially the Rays will have seven catchers in camp, but they will eventually get down to two to start the season. Why so many? Because they start camp with 34(!) pitchers. As the pitchers drop off the roster, so will the catchers.

• *Robinson Chirinos. Chirinos suffered a concussion at 2012 Spring Training and is still recovering. He played some winter league ball. Best guess, the Bulls or the Biscuits as he continues to recover.
• *Chris Gimenez. The Rays #3 catcher this year. Maybe with the Bulls early on.
• *Steven Vogt. Likely his last shot to get some traction with the Rays as a catcher. Else he will move to 1B or outfield. In the meantime he’s more than good enough to work with these platoons of pitchers.
• Mark Thomas. Getting his taste. Likely to start year in Montgomery.
• Craig Albernaz. Hard to say where he will end up. Albernaz seems to be functioning more as a playing coach than a catcher these last couple of years. Possibly Durham. I hope so. I like watching him at work.

Infielders

Even though the Rays dropped two infielders last week, they still have 10 on the 40-man and 5 more on the NRI list. Who should Bulls fans be watching this Spring?

• *Tim Beckham spent all of last year with the Bulls (except for his unfortunate sequestration in the Coventry of drug rehabilitation). I’m guessing he will be competing for a 2B job back with the Bulls.
• *Hak-Ju Lee is getting a taste and is likely to be the Bulls starting shortstop.
• Leslie Anderson got a last minute invitation. Probable Bull.
• Cole Figueroa and Shawn O’Malley are both well-liked by WDBB. Hope they make it back to Durham.
• Mike Fontenot spent last year with the Phillies and the Iron Pigs. 

Outfielders

The Rays outfield lacks depth, so this could be an interesting list to watch. Much depends on Brandon Guyer’s health. At least one of these players has a shot at staying with the Rays. All of the rest could end up in Durham. Note that none are on 40-man and only one has played as a Bull. However, both Stephen Vogt and Leslie Anderson on other lists have spent time at outfielders for the Bulls.

• Rich Thompson. Terrific outfielder. Should be back with the Bulls.
• Wil Myers. On a lot of top prospect lists. Will be getting a ton of attention in the press and on Rays blogs.
• Shelley Duncan. Strong guy. Struggled last year with Cleveland. 
• Jason Bourgeois. Another player new to Rays system. Could be fun to watch. Probable Bull.
• Nick Weglarz. Young, interesting guy out of Indians system.

Pitchers

How can I possibly guess about these guys? Especially the relievers. Here’s one list of starters that strikes me as plausible. All of these guys could be fun to watch. (Well, most of them...)

• *Chris Archer. Has a shot to jump to the Rays rotation early.
• *Jake Odorizzi. New guy. Great rep.
• *Alex Colome and *Matt Buschmann. We’ve seen them. We like them.
• *Alexander Torres. Will someone figure him out and unlock the puzzle? We can hope.

Relievers? Sorry all I can do is say that there are a couple of guys we’ve seen and liked on both 40-man and NRI list. Such as:

• Jim Paduch
• Marquis Fleming
• Adam Liberatore

There are many, many more relievers in camp, but we just don’t know much about them and, to be honest, we’re too lazy to figure it out at this early date. 

*UPDATE: A careful reader has pointed out that, as simple as it was, I still got my math wrong. The Bulls can carry 25, not 24, players on their roster. 

August, the 40-Man, and the Durham Bulls

Today is the first day of August and minor leaguers’ thoughts turn to … September call-ups. To that end here’s a bit of a primer on how that might work. As careful readers know I am far from expert on these matters, so if I make a mistake, please jump in and help fix it.

We’ll begin with the 40-man roster of the Rays ...

Wait a minute. Before that let’s make sure we all understand and agree on just what that all this roster stuff means. Before a player can step on the field in a major league game he has to be on the team's 25-man “active roster”. However, before a player can be on the 25-man roster, he has to be on the 40-man roster. Thus, the 40-man functions as sort of a gateway to playing in the big leagues.

Players who are on the 15-day disabled list have to stay on the 40-man; players on the 60-day disabled list do not.

Most of the ballplayers who are on the 40-man but not on the 25-man active roster play for the Durham Bulls. Only three ballplayers are on the Rays 40-man but not with the Bulls. They are all young pitchers. Two are down with the Charlotte Sand Crabs (A) (RHPs Wilking Rodriguez and Albert Suarez) and one with the Montgomery Biscuits (AA), RHP Alex Colome. I don’t know why that is. Maybe a reader can jump in an explain it for me and I’ll add it in. [Note 1]

With the Bulls we’ve got (as of today) five pitchers and six position players who are on the Rays 40-man.

The pitchers have been going back and forth all year (Josh Lueke went up yesterday):

• Chris Archer
• Dane De La Rosa
• Brandon Gomes
• Cesar Ramos
• Alexander Torres

The position players, on the other hand, have stayed with the Bulls after arrival. The one exception to that is infielder Will Rhymes who started with the Bulls, went up, and came back. The rest started with the Rays and came to the Bulls after the season started. One, Brooks Conrad, is on his way.

• Chris Gimenez
• Stephen Vogt
• Reid Brignac
• Brooks Conrad
• Will Rhymes
• Rich Thompson

If you’ve been doing your addition (25+11+3) and wondering why it doesn’t work out, it’s because the Rays only have 39 players on their 40-man roster at the moment. At a guess that’s because they want to hold a spot for the day Evan Longoria comes off the 60-day DL. [Ooops! See Note 2]

Why should we Bulls fans care? Well, in September the Rays can “expand” the active roster to include all the guys on the 40-man. That is, they can call up everyone if they want to. In previous years we Bulls fans watched this closely because the Bulls were in contention and we didn’t want the Rays to rip off anyone needed for the playoffs. This year that’s not going to matter all that much. The last regular season game is September 3rd and the Bulls playoff prospects are nil.

All those guys listed above have a shot at spending September with the Rays (and making big league bucks, a month's worth of the $480k minimum is more than most would make in the rest of the year).

What about the rest of the team? They can only get a September call up if someone is taken off the Rays 40-man roster and that can only happen in one of two ways: a player goes on the 60-day DL or a player on the list is “designated for assignment” or released outright. If we’ve got a favorite player whom we think should spend some time with the Rays this September, and he’s not already on the 40-man, then somebody currently on the list has to go.

As it happens, I’ve got two players I think should spend some time with the Rays and who aren’t on the 40-man: Henry Wrigley and Leslie Anderson. I’ll try to make a case for them over the month, but first I wanted to make sure we all knew who was ahead of them in line. It’s not just the folks currently playing for the Rays, it’s all the folks on the 40-man.

They (and others such as Tim Beckham) will spend August making their case. Others will be playing for a Winter League job. Others will be working for an invitation to spring training next year (not necessarily with the Rays). Others will be serving out their last days as professional ballplayers.

Note 1: If you are not afraid of brain cramps, read this article on the Rule 5 draft. These players who were drafted at a very young age are being protected from that draft (at least for now). Thanks to Doug Milhoan of Rays Prospects for this info.


Note 2: Can't count. Luke Scott is on the 15-day DL. He stays on the 40-man. The Rays have 40 men on their 40-man.

Coming Home On a Win

Season: 14-24; Trip: 4-4, Standings

Box, Wrap

That was a nice way to wrap up the trip. Bulls pitching got what was only their second shutout this year and Juan Miranda got his first home run of the season to win the game.

It was a particularly solid win given the context, which is severe roster turmoil (Stephen Vogt called up just before the game) that is only going to get more confusing over the next couple of days. More about that below.

I agree with broadcaster Patrick Kinas — Bulls pitching has really settled down over this trip. (I would add: with the notable exception of Alexander Torres.) Defensively a few miscues, but nothing to be concerned about. What is still cause for concern is the lack of power. But that isn’t new and the answer is more effective small ball, i.e., get that guy home from second and third base. That needs some help, but that’s who the Bulls are this year ... so far ... wait for the next edition of the team. It changes almost daily.

Outside the game (big goings on, and likely to be more before the Bulls take the field tonight):

• Latest word from the Bulls is that Hideki Matsui will play tonight. But if not tonight, then tomorrow. Should be fun. 
• If Matsui does get added to the roster, who goes? That’s where the secrecy surrounding minor league contracts comes into play. If it’s just performance, then, in spite of his big hit last night, Juan Miranda would be the one to go. He was hired by the Rays for his bat and he is not producing. But if it’s ease of moving players around, then it will likely by Henry Wrigley back to Montgomery. Sorry, Henry, because I was really looking forward to seeing you play.
• But wait! There’s more! Jeff Niemann, a Rays starting pitcher, was hit so hard by a batted ball it broke a bone in his leg and he will be out for a long time. That means a pitcher will probably be leaving Durham. My guess is Alex Cobb. No telling who’s available to fill that hole. Seems like half of the Rays roster is on the DL. Just look at the folks here. Plus at least two of those guys (Ridriguez and Suarez) ain’t gonna get called up any time this year.
• But, the Rays could take someone from their bullpen (Wade Davis was in competition for the starting job until just a few weeks ago) into the rotation and the Rays call up a reliever from the Bulls instead of a starter. Brandon Gomes, De La Rosa, and Gaub are on the 40-man.
• If they take a pitcher from the Bulls today, then they could just leave a hole and Matsui will just slip in without a transaction.
• Does any of this pass the "So what?" test. Well, I think so. Because the senior guys in the dugout and the bullpen have to be thinking if their day is coming.
• After mentioning Cesar Ramos yesterday in this blog, nice to see him come in after Niemann’s injury and do a great job.
• For a short break from baseball, check out Diane Van Derek’s trek. She is getting near Blowing Rock on the fifth day of her run from the Tennessee border to the coast. They don’t have the GPS tracking up and running yet. Hope they do soon.

[Note regarding my predictions regarding roster moves — My record is really, really dismal. I would not bet on me, neither should you.]

Update: For a thoughtful analysis of the Rays pitching situation, see this piece by Tommy Rancel, a well-regarding Rays watcher and analyst.

Durham Bulls Basics, 2012, Part 2

The Schedule

The International League schedules 144 games for each of its teams. Half of those games are played at home. So, unless you are truly a Durham Bulls fanatic, you will only have 72 chances to see your Bulls during the regular season. (Note: Trust me. There are some among the readers here who will drive to Charlotte or Norfolk for a game. More power to them.)

In 2012 the first home game (April 5) against the Gwinnett Braves is the first day of the season for the International League. The last home game (September 1) against the Charlotte Knights is two days before the end of the season.

Another very important feature of the schedule is that the Bulls only play 8 games against each team outside the South Division, 4 at home and 4 away. That means that if you are a Boston fan the only chance you’ll get to see Red Sox prospects will be May 15 - 18. That’s it. They won’t be back unless both teams are both in the playoffs in September. The same is true if you’re a Yankees fan (June 5-8), or a Reds fan (May 1 - 4), or a fan of any of the other parent clubs of teams in the North or West divisions of the International League. Said another way, the Bulls only play 40 games at home with the teams from outside the South Division.

On the other hand, if you’re a Braves (Gwinnett) or White Sox (Charlotte) or Orioles (Norfolk) fan, you’re in luck. (Well, it’s a bit difficult to call an Orioles fan as being in any sort of luck, but you get the idea.) Those teams will be here about a dozen times each this year.

As a general rule Bulls home stands last eight days and road trips eight days. But not always. In mid-April the Bulls have a 14-day road trip.

Triple-A ballplayers have a much more relentless schedule than major leaguers. They play more games with fewer days off, at least until September.

The Triple-A All-Star Game pitting the International League All-Stars against the Pacific Coast League All-Stars is set for July 11 and will be played at the ballpark of the Buffalo Bisons. Exactly how the players are selected for the game is something of a mystery. Fans do get a vote; however, usually the IL doesn’t bother to tell us how the voting went.

The International League Championship (The Governors’ Cup) is decided with two rounds of best of five playoffs in September. A one-game “AAA Championship” game is to be played right here, at the Durham Bulls Athletic Park on September 18, 2012. You're going to here a lot about that game this year.

The Durham Bulls, as all readers of this blog must know, won the Governors’ Cup and the AAA Championship in 2009 and has won the Southern Division of the International League for the last several years.

The 40-Man Roster

And now, sigh, let's talk about the Tampa Bay Rays.

To clear up some possible confusion, the Tampa Bay Rays play baseball in St. Petersburg, Florida, not Tampa. That may come as a bit of a surprise to those not familiar with Florida geography (or modern marketing strategies).

Every major league team consists of 25 players on the “active” roster. An additional 15 players are added to make up the 40-man roster. In general, once a player makes it to the 25-man active roster he stays there (unless traded or sold). For players who have been around for a while, there are all sorts of byzantine rules regarding how this works. To complicate matters in 2012, the major league teams can expand their roster to 26 on days that they have a double-header. What matters to Bulls fans, however, is that a Bull cannot be called up to play in a Rays game (even to temporarily replace an injured player) unless he is first on the 40-man roster.

Here in Durham, we are not much interested in the active roster. What matters to Bulls fans are those 15 ballplayers who are on the Rays 40-man but not on the active roster. Members of that 15 man group usually make up the heart of the Durham Bulls.

If previous years are typical, we can expect that 11 or 12 of the players on the 40-man will be assigned to Durham and they will probably be split about 6 or 7 pitchers and 4 or 5 position players (a few will be playing at lower than AAA level). Of the pitchers, one or two will be prospective starting pitchers, the other potential relievers.

Why are they in Durham? Lots of reasons. And that’s one of the pleasures of watching AAA ball. Why is this guy here? When will he be called up? Will he be called up?

The odds of being called up are pretty good. There are enough injuries and trades in a given year that most if not all of the players on the 40-man will at least get a few days with the Rays. Some will go there and stay.

What about the Bulls who aren’t on the 40-man? Unless Tampa Bay takes someone off the 40-man, they can’t be called up. Adjustment to the 40-man can, and does, happen, but not very often. However, the Rays are nothing if not creative in gaming the major league player rules system.

The 40-man roster also has an effect on how the players who are with the Bulls are used. For example, pitchers may be on defined pitch counts and/or working on specific pitches that the Rays have decided the pitcher needs to develop. Relievers may be tested to see if they can do two days in a row, or “tried out” as a closer. We will see infielders playing the outfield (and vice versa).

My point is that sometimes what we see on the field is often decided in St. Petersburg, not in the Bulls' clubhouse. The Rays really aren’t particularly interested in the Bulls’ won-loss record. So, we will inevitably see some unfortunate (for the Bulls) decisions, such as a player being called up, sitting on the Rays’ bench for a couple of weeks, then coming back to Durham with his timing shot and struggling at bat. And with this new 26 man roster for double header rule, I'm guessing that Bulls' pitching rotations could get really screwed up with a pitcher being called up for a spot start and then coming back.

We cannot avoid the fact that the Durham Bulls live and die at the whim of the Tampa Bay Rays front office. What’s fortunate for Bulls fans is that the Rays have invested a ton of effort into building a steady stream of talent to feed into the big team. More than that, very few just “pass through” AAA-level ball. This is a real and very serious testing ground for pitchers and hitters. So we will get to see a lot of very talented ballplayers. Furthermore, we have a first rate managing/coaching crew with the team. Lastly, of course, without the Rays we wouldn’t have AAA ball here at all.

All of which is not going to keep me from complaining about the Rays. Hey, it’s baseball!

For Durham Bulls history, check out the Bulls’ web page and the Wikipedia page. They need some work, but are very good introductions.

Getting Ready for Spring Training

I will be out of pocket for a couple of weeks and Rays’ pitchers and catchers report on Monday the 20th. To try to get ahead of the curve just a little bit, here’s my judgement on what Durham Bulls fans should be watching for on the Rays’ blogs and Tampa Bay area newspapers once Grapefruit League box scores start being published.

We need to get our heads around two long lists, the 40-man roster, and the non-roster invitees. Very likely that all of the Bulls will be coming off of those lists. The non-roster list just had three players added to it, outfielders Brad Coon and Jeff Salazar, and catcher Chris Gimenez.

It’s the non-roster invitees we Bulls fans should keep an eye on, because those are the guys who 1) we may not have seen before and 2) could easily show up in Durham this year. Of the 19 players on the list, we saw only five of them last year. Since they are all signed to minor league contracts the Rays have to place them somewhere in the system and certainly they wouldn’t invite them to spring training if they didn’t think they could play at least at the AAA level.

An exception would be the catchers on the list. That’s simply arithmetic. At the beginning of spring training the Rays have 30 pitchers in camp. Somebody’s got to warm them up. No surprise that there are 8 catchers in camp, but a couple will probably start the year in Montgomery.

The odds of a non-roster invitee breaking into the Rays’ 25-man list (or even the 40-man) aren’t very good. But you can bet that one or two of them are going to shine and create one of those problems the Rays front office probably loves.

So, my advice is keep cross-checking the non-roster invitees against the box scores and see who’s getting playing time. That could be a clue.

Minor league camp opens on March 3 and we will start seeing reports of a player being sent “to the minors.” Very likely it will be one of the non-roster invitees and it’s quite likely he will show up in a Bulls (or Biscuits) uniform. Unfortunately, no one is reporting on that activity with the possible exception of the Montgomery Advertiser’s Stacy Long (or possibly one the the guys over at Rays Prospects who apparently lives nearby).  So, keep an eye on Stacy’s blog (it's on the sidebar).

Hemstitching: Stephen Vogt, Rule 5, Trade Values

In the weaver’s world hemstitching is used for two purposes: to tie up loose ends (literally, because an “end” is a thread in a warp) and for decoration. [For another connection between weaving and baseball, see a post from last winter]

• Stephen Vogt, along with two pitchers we've never seen, was added to the Rays 40-man roster recently. At a guess, the primary motivation had more to do with the Rule 5 draft than anything else, but we really like Stephen and if he doesn't make it to the active roster out of Spring Training we'll be happy to see him as a Bull. Note that he's being reported as a catcher, but he is a much more versatile player than that. I don't think any other Bull is subject to Rule 5, but if someone knows better, jump in.
• Over at Rays Index he's put up his Trade Value Index. That's a very interesting rank-ordering of players currently in the Rays' system ranked in accordance with their "trade value". Twelve Bulls from 2011 are on the list, many of them quite high.
• We wrote about catchers a while back admiring the Cardinals' Yadier Molina. Looks like the Rays may have signed his brother, Jose. We won't likely see him in Durham, but the deal confirms that the Rays are on the hunt for catching talent.

Update: For more on the players involved in the 40-man roster and the Rule 5 draft, see T. Rancel's post at Rays Insider.

Ruggiano, Anderson, and more ...

A while back when the Rays had a flurry of signings they also went up to 42 players on their 40-man roster. So we've known for a while that two players had to go to make room. That happened today. Justin Ruggiano and Leslie Anderson have been "designated for assignment." That means that either another team picks them up on their 40-man (paying the Rays appropriate compensation — have no idea how that's determined) or they perhaps show up in a Bulls uniform this year. Marc Tompkin of the St. Pete Times quoted Rugg as saying:

I'm disappointed but at the same time it could open up another door or opportunity for me...

Unlikely that Tompkin would have gotten a good quote from Anderson unless he speaks really good Spanish.

Over at DRaysBay Steve Slowinski sees the situation as too many outfielders and first basemen in the Rays system and R.J. Anderson at the Process Report notes that Anderson's numbers weren't very good and that there wasn't much room for Ruggiano.

Here at WDBB my guess is that none of our careful readers are surprised at either choice. After the Rays called up Justin last year and sat him on the bench for a week it was clear that he wasn't high on their list of guys to watch. As for Anderson, let's say that he never really showed Bulls fans very much as an arm or bat or glove. Seemed to be a nice guy and we are certainly glad to see him get out of Cuba safely (and hope that his immigration status doesn't get screwed up). But did not look like a major leaguer to us (not that we are all that good at making that kind of call).

Still, given the way this works, we could have both players with us in Durham this year.

As long as I'm pecking away, here are a few odds and ends that might be of interest.

• The 2011 Triple-A Championship game is not going to be in Oklahoma City. It will be on September 20th in Albuquerque, New Mexico on the Isotopes' field. Albuquerque (and nearby Santa Fe) is one of my favorite towns. Maybe an excuse to trek out west in September?
• The Bulls are soliciting fans for food suggestions. Know that at least one reader of WDBB is very interested in sausage, so he should take a look.
• For folks with an interest in the business of baseball (I am obviously not one of them) DRaysBay had a in-depth look at the upcoming Collective Bargaining Agreement review.
• For deeply obsessive Rays' fans, here's what will be happening with jersey numbers.
• Interesting interview with potential Durham Bull Dirk Hayhurst a few days ago on DRaysBay.
• Durham Bulls' watchers are often left in the dark regarding our young pitchers pitch count/innings limits. Cork Gains over at Rays Index discusses the Rays philosophy that may give us some hints on what to expect this year.
• Lastly, the Rays have signed RHP Juan Cruz and infielder Felipe Lopez to minor league contracts with invitations to spring training.

Roster Projections, Chris Archer, Jake McGee, and More

Another good day for a bit of surfing around —

Over at Rays Index, Cork Gaines has put up his 25-man and 40-man roster projections. As is often the case, some really interesting stuff in the footnotes. Pleased to see that he's got Justin Ruggiano still in the running.

DRaysBay takes the approach of projecting prospect locations in various Rays' affiliates. There are some interesting names; however the approach of looking only at prospects doesn't tell Bulls fans much about what the full Bulls roster might look like this year.

Over at The Process Report, R.J. Anderson takes a look at Jake McGee. Our little section of the stands did a good bit of guessing about Mr. McGee last year since it seemed to us that the Rays had decided he was to be a reliever/closer. And that was the only thing he did with the Bulls and the Rays last year. But maybe not. Anderson seems to think that the decision has not yet been made. That could mean that the Bulls begin the season with three potential superstar starters. Now that would be fun to watch.

Chris Archer, former hot Cubs prospect, now in Rays system, and local (Clayton) product was at the Raleigh Hot Stove League gathering the other night. Very articulate and personable young man. Interesting interview with Neil Solondz here and one from the St. Petersburg Times here.

Lastly, a few more non-roster invitees have been announced. Very pleased the see Craig Albernaz and Brian Baker on the list. As careful readers know, WDBB likes Craig a lot even if he didn't get to spend much time with the Bulls last year. In fact, he won the 2010 Moonlight Graham Award. Great that he will be getting another look by the Rays. Brian Baker had a terrific season with the Bulls in 2010. Would be happy to see him back with the Bulls in 2011.

More Players Signed to Minor League Contracts

Down in the Tampa Bay area they are obsessing about Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez. See, for example, Marc Topkin of the St Pete Times.

Up here, however, we are more interested in less flashy/famous players. As has been mentioned here before, the 2011 Durham Bulls will be mostly drawn from players on the Tampa Bay 40-man who don’t make the 25-man active list out of spring training and the players with a “non-roster invitation” to spring training. We mentioned some possibilities in an earlier post here. And most of the players in the Garza trade have a shot, as was discussed here.

The Rays have just signed five more players we need to keep an eye on. Here's a quote from the press release:

The Tampa Bay Rays have signed five players to minor league contracts, each with an invitation to major league spring training: right-handed pitcher Jonah Bayliss, outfielder Chris Carter, right-handed pitcher Dirk Hayhurst and infielders Daniel Mayora and Ray Olmedo.

More details on the players are here.

I have fond memories of Ray Olmedo’s 2009 tenure with the Bulls. I like guys like Ray who have good gloves and solid baseball instincts. Have to think that he’s a clubhouse asset or he would never have been signed. Nice to see that he’s got another shot at playing for the Bulls. He took us into the Governors' Cup and the AAA Championship in 2009, maybe he can do it again.

Rays Roster Projections

Cork Gaines over at RaysIndex has a pretty good track record at thinking through where the Rays might be going. Recently he posted his 25-man and 40-man roster projections and they are worth looking at. I particularly like the way that Cork puts these together. And a lot of interesting information is buried in the notes.

Why should we Bulls fans care?

A couple of reasons.

First of all, if this is the way it shakes out, a huge number of 2010 Bulls are going to be playing in the big leagues in 2011: Dan Johnson, Elliot Johnson, Desmond Jennings, Matt Joyce, Justin Ruggiano, Jeremy Hellickson, and Mike Ekstrom were all Bulls regulars last year. That’s a huge transfer of talent from minor to major leagues. I’d bet it is easily the biggest shift in Bulls’ history — but I’ll defer to any careful reader out there with a better handle on history than I. Note also that John Jaso, Reid Brignac, Ben Zobrist, Wade Davis, and Jeff Neimann are barely out of their Bulls uniforms.

The second, and more interesting, reason to take a look is that the Bulls’ 2011 roster will come from two pools of players — those players on the 40-man but not on the 25-man roster, and the group of players labeled “non-roster invitees” (that is, the guys who get invited to spring training by the Rays). We have little information on the non-roster invitees so far.

However, if Gaines is close to being correct, and the Bulls continue to carry 12 position players in 2011, only four position player slots are filled. He’s got Anderson on first, Ashley and Lobaton catching, and Perez in the outfield.

Interesting times.