Split in Ohio

Season: 41-36; Trip: 1-2
Wrap, Box 1, Box 2, Columbus Dispatch

The way the first game went, it looked as if the Bulls were back on track with exceptional starting pitching from new guy Robert Zarate and timely hitting from Ryan Brett and Corey Brown. Included in the good news was their first shutout since June 7 (OK, a 7 inning game, but it still looked good). J.P. Arencibia had his game as a catcher in the game as well (no wild pitches, no passed balls, no steals, pretty good).

The Bulls and the Clippers both went to their bullpens for the second game, and that looked OK until Ernesto Frieri could not hold on to the tie game in the 7th.

Richie Shaffer played first base in both games. A rusty Alexi Casilla struck out three times in the second game. New guy Boog Powell got two singles and two walks in the first game, plus a triple in the second game.

The Bulls will play a two-game set against the Clippers in August at the DBAP. Let’s hope they get a grip on themselves before then. This 1- 6 stretch has been tough.

Outside the game—

• Norfolk now leads the IL South Division.
• Matt Andriese is reportedly heading back to the Bulls.
• Scott Diamond has been assigned to the Montgomery Biscuits, but I’m suspicious about that. Smells like a paper transaction to me. He hasn’t been below AAA since 2010. I’m guessing he had an opt out, is looking for another job, or is about to be released. Decent numbers for a 2015 Bulls starter. In fact, he is essentially the best of the surviving three (Floro and Teaford being the other two).
• Bulls are off to Toledo to see if they have any better luck in that part of Ohio.

Continuing my interest in the Game Score stat, here’s the last 15 games. It shows the pretty dismal performance of the starting pitchers over the last several games. Starting pitching isn’t everything, of course, but it does make a difference.

click on chart for larger image

Buschmann Rules

Season: 22-22; Trip: 3-4
Wrap, Box, RailRidersBlog

The Bulls pulled back up to .500 with their second win in a row, giving every appearance of coming out of their slump. But also give credit to Matt Buschmann for another superb outing (Game Score: 77).

I wasn’t listening, nor have I read any follow-up, but pulling Jordan Norberto after just two batters does not look good. Here’s hoping that he’s OK.

Meanwhile, a much-reduced player crew took the field and put together a three-run 5th inning that was enough to win the game.

Outside the game —

• By much reduced, I mean really much reduced. In the last few days three infielders have gone on the disabled list: Hak-Ju Lee, Vince Belnome, and Alexi Casilla. Leonardo Reginatto was called back from Montgomery and Tim Beckham is on his way, but the next couple of days are going to be tricky. As far as I can tell, today the Bulls have one player on the bench, whomever isn’t catching. Catcher Mayo Acosta is probably traveling with the team and could probably be activated, though.
• Pitcher  Enny Romero went to St. Petersburg, pitched three innings, and is coming back. Talk about a long walk from and to the bullpen! He did his job, but did walk in a run.
• To take his place, Bulls reliever Preston Guilmet was called up. He has 14 appearances in the majors, 4 in 2013 and 10 last year with Baltimore, so he’s been there before. Good luck!

My Last Game Score Chart

After two days of looking at Game Scores over time, what about individuals? Here’s the average game scores this season for Durham Bulls starters. It’s a pretty close match to our view of them measured by other stats. Beginning to think this may be a pretty useful for evaluating starters. Note that here in AAA not all starting pitchers are destined to remain starting pitchers. And a not-so-good sign for the Bulls is to note that #2 and #3 are on the 40-man and are already going back and forth to the Rays.

Update: Third Baseman Richie Shaffer called up from Montgomery Biscuits [stats]

A Win Against the RailRiders!

Season: 22-22; Trip: 2-4
Wrap, Box, Scranton Times-Tribune

Yes, this win was aided by the exceptional generosity of RailRiders pitchers and fielders (8 walks, 3 errors, 2 unearned runs), but you know what, the Bulls will probably be happy to take it. Over the last 10 games, the Bulls have lost 8, and 5 of those losses were to these RailRiders. It was nice to see the win.

I have mixed feelings about Everett Teaford. His ERA is up there at 5.50. His average Game Score (44) isn’t all that great. But he did a good job last night. Preston Guilmet got his first save of the year. He had 10 last year with the Norfolk Tides, so maybe we’ll see more of him in a closer role.

Mikie Mahtook went 1 for 5 last night with 3 K’s. He’s had 19 strikeouts in the last 10 games as his batting average has dropped down to .256. Worrisome.

But young Leonardo Reginatto is back and making the most of it, including a run scored and an RBI last night while batting in the 9 spot.

Outside the game —

• Vince Belnome was put on the disabled list yesterday, joining Hak-Ju Lee. That was the 59th transaction of the year.
• Alexi Casilla did not play last night.
• Two more games and the Bulls are back in town for 9 games over 11 days. Tomorrow’s game is their last game in the North Division in 2015. 
• An interesting analysis of the Tampa Bay region as a sports venue over at Rays Index. Attendance is a big issue down there. The implication is that the area has more sports than they can support. 
• Locally, however, we have one more baseball team, the Holly Springs Salamanders, a Coastal Plains League team playing in Holly Springs nice new park.

More on the Game Score stat —

Here’s the similar look at the Game Score stat I did yesterday, except for the Tampa Bay Rays. The circled data points are the anomalies — a below average GSc that the team won, above average GSc the team lost. What jumped out to me is how someone (hitters or relievers?) is not following up on good work by Jake Odorizzi. He had two terrific starts in the period (and one 49) and still the Rays lost the games.

click on chart for larger image

Walk-Off Losses; Rosterizing; and the Game Score Stat

Wrap, Box

The Rays don’t seem to know what they want Matt Andriese to become. He’s had 7 appearances with the Rays this year, three not-very-good starts and 4 relief appearances. With the Bulls he’s had a relief appearance and this start, which began well, but didn’t end all that great, followed by Jordan Norberto, who was awful.

Season: 21-22; Trip: 1-4
Wrap, Box, Scranton Times-Tribune

The Bulls then traveled to Moosic, Pennsylvania for a re-match against the RailRiders. Dylan Floro had a brilliant start, his best of the year, but Andrew Bellatti, just back from Tampa Bay couldn’t hang on.

Outside the game —

• Hak-Ju Lee has gone on the disabled list for an injury to his hand. I’ve missed all the details, but he was spiked on his glove hand and left the game Wednesday night.
• Leonardo Reginatto is back up from Montgomery and played last night.
• The team’s best hitter, Alexi Casilla, left game two on Tuesday evening and has not played since. First reported as a hamstring problem, but if someone’s got more current information, please add.
• Pitcher Everett Teaford went on the temporarily inactive list when Andrew Bellatti was added to the roster.

Game Score?

The Game Score stat and the importance of starting pitching.

I’ve been reading up on Bill James’ “Game Score” stat recently and tracking the Bulls (and the Rays) starting pitchers.

Game Score is a way of evaluating the performance of the starting pitcher. Overall the computation is pretty simple and fairly intuitive. And baseball seems to agree since it’s showing up in box scores.

Here’s how it’s calculated:

Start with 50 points. Add 1 point for each out recorded, (3 points per inning). Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4th. Add 1 point for each strikeout. Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed. Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed. Subtract 2 points for each unearned run allowed. Subtract 1 point for each walk.

And here’s one take on what it means (from the Wikipedia link):

The game score concept expands on Major League Baseball’s official definition of a “quality start”. MLB defines a quality start as six or more innings pitched while allowing three or fewer earned runs. The game score system defines a quality start as a game score above 50.
The advantage that the system has over the official definition is that it allows a statistician a better view of the degree of quality in a pitcher’s performance. Game scores can be quantified, and a pitcher’s performance tracked over time. It is also possible to compare different pitchers. If one averages a 60 and another averages 55, presumably the first pitcher has had a better season.

Does it pass the “so what?” test?

Maybe.

This chart shows the game scores of Bulls starting pitchers for the last 15 games. This has not been a good stretch for the Bulls, they’ve only won 4 games and they’ve lost 11. How does that track against starting pitcher performance? Pretty well. The circled scores are the only three anomalies of the 15. Otherwise it sure looks like an above average game score is associated with a team win (3 out of the 4 wins had above-50 game scores) and a low game score with a loss (9 out of 11 losses had below-50 scores). Please note that the wins and losses shown are team's wins and losses, not the pitcher's.

It sure looks like a good part of this recent tough run can be attributed to starting pitching.

click on chart for larger image