Five in a Row; Is There Hope for the Future?

Season: 64-66; Home Stand: 5-0
Games Remaining: 14; Home Games: 10
Wrap, Box, Herald-Sun

For the first time in what seems like a very long time I was able to get to the DBAP to watch a game. I certainly didn’t expect the Bulls to pull off a 5-in-a-row, but they did. This was the best at-home series of the year.

The Bulls’ were hitting homers last night, Nick Franklin, J.P. Arencibia, and Hak-Ju Lee in the first three innings. But it was Lee who had the big night at bat, 4 RBIs.

Everett Teaford had his best start in a very long time. In fact, the last time he had a Game Score as good as last night (58) was in a no-decision game back on June 16. Nice to see him in good form. Particularly impressive was the moment in the 5th when the umpire apparently decided to ignore the pace of game rules and let two Columbus batters in a row step in and out of the box numerous times. Both batters drew walks, but Teaford managed to sort himself out and get out of the inning unscathed (we won’t count the inning-opening home run).

My first time seeing new guy Parker Markel. He looked pretty good with his 3 K’s over 2 ⅔ innings. At a guess, however, he’s the odd man out when José Dominguez returns. Dominguez passed through waivers yesterday and will be coming back to the Bulls.

For the first time in recent memory Boog Powell was not the leadoff batter, Mikie Mahtook was and Powell was second. However, he did start toward the plate at the very beginning of the game and came back toward the dugout with a big grin on his face. Habit.

Carolina Dreamin’

These five wins in a row got broadcaster Patrick Kinas running the math a bit. His colleague Scott Pose wasn’t challenging the numbers, but he also wasn’t buying into it either. Standings.

Let’s take a look. The rest of the season the Bulls are playing against International League South Division teams. Five against Norfolk (2 away, 3 home); 7 against Charlotte (4 home, 3 away); and 2 against Gwinnett at the DBAP. All of those teams are above .500 and Gwinnett in particular has been hot lately. Half of the remaining games will take place place after the September call-ups and it’s hard to say what Chicago, Atlanta, Baltimore, or Tampa Bay will do to their South Division teams.

What we can point out is this:

Yes, the Bulls are hot, but so are the Braves. You have to think that Gwinnett could make a run at the top spot, but no one else is likely to sneak into the wild card slot. Could something happen? Sure. Likely? We can only hope.

A more reasonable wish is for the Bulls to establish a winning season. That’s what this chart will be showing. Getting above the 0 mark is a winning season. And that, given this July and August, would be a significant accomplishment.

Bulls Explode Against Mud Hens

Season: 60-66; Home Stand: 1-0;
Games Left: 18; Home Games Left: 13
Wrap, Box, Herald-Sun

As the line score shows, this was an amazing game for the hitters and pitchers. Every Bull got at least one hit: 4 doubles, a triple (Boog Powell), four home runs (two by Richie Shaffer, one by Nick Franklin, one by Taylor Motter), and 11 singles. Cory Brown was the only Bull who didn’t get at least one RBI. An amazing, year’s best, night: 38 total bases, team OPS of 1.404, team wOBA of .577.

Meanwhile, Blake Snell continues to show his stuff. He only gave up one hit (a solo home run) in 5 innings of work.

Outside the game —

• I can’t keep track of all the transactions. The Bulls have had 189 of them this year! That's 1.5 transactions per game! Pretty sure that I haven’t mentioned at least some of these. 
• José Dominguez was designated for assignment (the Rays needed his 40-man slot, Smyly finished his rehab). No word on his status. Note that former Bull Dale Thayer is in the same "DFA Limbo" status. 
• Leonardo Reginatto went back to Montgomery.
• Joey Butler came back to the Bulls from Tampa Bay.
• Edward Teaford went to Hudson Valley on the 15th and came back on the 18th. Hope he enjoyed the trip.
• Enny Romero was called up to Tampa Bay and I think he’s on his way back.
• Matt Andriese was called up (he took the loss in the 13th inning last night).
• Richie Shaffer is back, with his bat, obviously.
• Kirby Yates is back.
• Dylan Floro has gone on the disabled list.
• Meanwhile, I don’t think that I have pointed out that Vince Belnome was signed by the New York Mets and is playing with their AA team, the Binghamton Mets. Doing OK.
• The Biscuits are doing well.

Bats Away

Gotta admit he (she) is kind cute

Wrap, Box, Herald-Sun

Matt Andriese looked really, really good

Season: 56-59; Home Stand: 4-6;
Games Remaining: 27; Home Games Remaining: 15
Wrap, Box, Herald-Sun

From the way it started, we have to say that this home stand could have been among the worst in Bulls history. Instead, it ended on an up note when the Bulls won three of the last four. Plus we got to see the talent of young Blake Snell as he threw a no-hitter through his five innings. He was followed by a very decent 1-hit, two innings outing by Everett Teaford, his best outing since being moved to the bullpen. C.J. Riefenhauser K’d the side (with a walk thrown in there). And Jim Miller “closed”.

The other game story was Mikie Mahtook, Taylor Motter and Joey Rickard. As mentioned the other day, Mahtook is simply looking more comfortable since his last return from the Rays. Maybe it was just a change of scenery. He was 2 for 4 with 5 RBI yesterday. Taylor Motter had what seems to be routine for him: an RBI double, and two walks. New guy Joey Rickard kept up his bid to stick in AAA with a triple and a single and 3 RBI.

The 9-run differential matches the one from Friday and gives us hope that the Bulls will wrap up the season with at least a few respectable, fun-to-watch games.

Outside the game—

• J.P. Arencibia is hanging out with the Rays, but has not gone on their roster. Rays catcher, former Bull Curt Casali was injured and the Rays wanted some insurance with the team. Mayo Acosta has been put on the active roster.
• Somehow I wasn’t paying attention to this: Robert Zarate, the mystery pitcher who came up from the Charlotte Stone Crabs in mid-June and who has been doing a terrific job, is on the disabled list. If anyone knows why, please jump in. I’ve been distracted recently.
• Desmond Jennings is not going to Norfolk for tonight’s game, but there’s been no official announcement of his status. 
• First base coach for the Louisville Bats last night? Former Bull Matt Buschmann. Oddly enough, he is featured on the Bulls home page today wearing his Bulls hat. 

Slide Continues

Wrap, Box, Herald-Sun

Season: 52-56; Home Stand: 0-3
Wrap, Box, Herald-Sun

The Durham Bulls slid deeper into the cellar of the International League South Division with last night’s shutout. Bradin Hagens had a decent start, but it’s hard to win without any run support. And then Everett Teaford, who has had a tough time of it since being sent down from Tampa Bay (10 earned runs in 6⅔ innings — ERA 13.5) had three runs scored on him (1 earned). Which brings up the problem of stone hands/rubber arms: the Bulls have committed 15 errors in the last 5 games.

Nonetheless, it was interesting to see J.P. Arencibia start the game as the Bulls' catcher. That has not happened much this year. Richie Shaffer started at first base, but got pulled from the game (apparently as a call-up to the Rays). Arencibia took off the gear and went to first. Mayo Acosta got to make a rare appearance as catcher.

Jared Sandberg got tossed from the game after a Boog Powell pickoff. Guess he couldn’t see the play on TV re-run. It was a good call by the ump (if that’s what he was arguing about). Powell also got caught attempting to steal and made a throwing error. Not a good day for the youngster.

Speaking of stolen bases, one of the few Bulls strengths this year. They have not stolen a base in the last six games. That might, however, simply indicate a respect for Braves catcher Christian Bethancourt’s arm.

Outside the game —

• Let me put in a bit of skepticism regarding the Richie Shaffer call-up. Don’t get me wrong, I really like him and he has been a very exciting guy to watch (even though he seems to do better on the road than at home). Nevertheless, it’s worth pointing out that IL pitchers may have figured something out about him. He’s .241 over the last 10 games and has just one home run. 
• Mikie Mahtook went up to the Rays; came back and put on a Bulls uniform for one game; and went back to the Rays (0-4 last night).
• Grady Sizemore is up with the Rays.
• Joey Rickard, a 24 year-old outfielder with the Montgomery Biscuits, has been called up to the Bulls. He has some very nice numbers with the Biscuits. And seems to be fast (19 stolen bases and 6 triples — I take a triple to be more a measure of speed than of power). Also looks like he crowds the plate a bit. He’s accumulated 40 hits by pitch in his 4 seasons of pro ball (just 5 this year, though). [stats]
• Matt Moore has been optioned to the Bulls. I like watching him pitch. He’s working hard to come back from Tommy John surgery and didn’t do well with the Rays after his two (also not very good) rehab starts here in late June. Yeah, he’s not likely to really help the Bulls, but at this point WDBB is starting to focus on individual performance anyhow. We get a chance to see a great pitcher work on his comeback. He probably should have stayed here for a couple more games anyhow.
• Another rehabber, Drew Smyly, may also be coming back for a start soon.
• The N&O has a feature article on new guy Blake Snell. He should start the next day or so.
• Today: Indianapolis Indians (Pittsburgh Pirates). First place in IL West. ERA - #5; Hitting (OPS) - #9.

The Slide

click on chart for larger image

Hitless Wonderfulness

Season: 47-42; Home Stand: 1-1
Wrap, Box, Herald-Sun

The box score really doesn’t tell the tale of the wonderful quirkiness of the first 5 innings of last night’s game. We were almost, but not quite, sad for Gwinnett pitcher Alex White. We got over it.

Here’s the oddity: Not one of the first three Bulls runs of the game were “driven” in, that is, not one of the runs came home on a Durham Bulls hit. Here’s how it happened.

The first batter, Boog Powell, got on base when the catcher could not handle the strikeout pitch. Powell went to second base when Nick Franklin walked. When Taylor Motter grounded out, pitcher to first base, Powell and Franklin were in the midst of either a double steal or a hit-and-run. At any rate, Powell went full bore around third and came home with a very pretty plate-brushed slide. One run, no hits.

In the 4th inning Hak-Ju Lee drew a walk, stole second base, went to third base after a deep fly out to center field by catcher Bobby Wilson, and came home on a Vince Belnome sacrifice fly to left field.

In the 5th inning Taylor Motter walked, stole second, moved to third on a fly out to right by J.P. Arencibia, and came home on a sacrifice fly to right by Tim Beckham.

How cool is that? Three runs on no hits and the Bulls were ahead 3-2 going into the bottom of the 6th.

Then the Bulls did start hitting and the wheels really came off for the Braves. Hak-Ju Lee batted twice in the inning, doubling and scoring the first run on a Vince Belnome ground rule double, and striking out to end the inning. In the meantime the Bulls romped. The most exciting moment came from Tim Beckham’s bases-loaded single that cleared the bases and left him on third base when the throw from right field sailed into the Braves dugout.

Meanwhile, the Braves batters were taking shots at Bulls starting pitcher Scott Diamond. The first line drive hit him in the legs and he shook that off. A line drive in the last of the 3rd inning, however, went off his pitching arm and he left the game. More news today.

The recently maligned (by WDBB) bullpen came in for 6⅓ strong innings. Jeff Riefenhauser, led off and got the win. He was by WDBB favorite Jhan Mariñez for a 50 pitch, 2⅔ stretch. The game was closed out by Everett Teaford. Everett Teaford? What’s he doing in relief? That’s what he was doing for the Rays when he was up there and even though they’ve taken him off the 40-man, it looks like he’ll will be, at least for one night, a member of the relief crew.

Outside the game —

• Matt Andriese, top rider of the Durham Bulls/Tampa Bay Rays carousel is starting tonight. I’m guess he’s become a personal friend of whomever schedules Tampa-RDU flights. I’m not entirely sure, but I think there are seven transactions involved Andriese this year, none of them injury related. 
• Richie Shaffer was off to the futures game. Good luck today.
• Game time today 1:05. Need to get your praying done early.

Oh Give Me a Home ... Win

Wool E. Bull Takes a Shot
photo courtesy Sue Roth

Season: 46-42; Home Stand: 0-1
Wrap, Box, Herald-Sun

The Bulls have only won 20 games at home this year. Since June 10—that would be a month ago—they have won just two games in the DBAP. Last night wasn’t one of them.

Dylan Floro was back on early season form, giving up a lot of hits, but few runs. He was backed by some pretty good defense in a couple of double plays. However, Bulls hitters only got two singles until the 9th. So what we saw was a “pitchers’ duel” and a pretty good one until the 8th when usually very reliable Jim Miller walked a couple and gave up a three-run homer. Taylor Motter and J.P. Arencibia made the 9th noisy, but they could not begin to catch up.

Outside the game —

• Preston Guilmet, last seen at the DBAP on July 5th, is gone. He was DFA’d by the Rays and then claimed by the LA Dodgers. Must be tough to be a player in his position. The Rays claimed him from Toronto earlier this year, so he gets to wear a lot of uniforms in 2015.
• On the other hand, Everett Teaford, also DFA’d by the Rays, is on his way back. Nice to have a starting pitcher on the roster.
• And Andrew Belatti is returning after a long stay with the Rays. He went up to fill a DL hole in late May and then went on the disabled list himself. He came off the DL and pitched two innings for the Rays on July 8. Pushed off the bus to make room up there for Jake Odorizzi. No telling if the Rays will want him to start or work in relief. He did both for the Bulls earlier this year.
• The Bulls aren’t quite the draw on the road as they are at home. At home they are averaging 7,560 a game, on the road they are averaging 6,555. But, as the chart shows, crowds on the road are getting bigger as the summer goes on (April and May up north was really miserable).

click on chart

Chaos in Charlotte (and Durham and Kansas City and St Petersburg)

Season: 44-41; Trip: 0-1
Wrap, Box, Charlotte Observer

Did the chaos outside the  foul lines cross over into to being between the lines yesterday?

The Rays lost two games in Kansas City, 9-5 and 7-1, and the Bulls were crushed in Charlotte, 17-6. In their games the Rays used a couple of pitchers just arrived from Durham. But that’s just the visible signs of turmoil.

Since the first of July, just seven days ago, we’ve seen more than 13 transactions affecting Bulls (134+ on the year). And that doesn’t count Preston Guilmet who, after getting a save in the first Bulls home win in a looooong time, was DFA’d the next day. Or Everett Teaford, who was called up, pitched in both Rays games, and DFA’d immediately after. Or the first baseman who isn’t going to show up in Durham because he was claimed off waivers.

Every single one of the six, count ‘em, six(!) pitchers who threw for the Bulls last night (we won’t count the two position players), have been on the carousel back and forth from the Rays to the Bulls to the Rays this year. Of the 10 pitchers on the mound for the Rays in KC for those two games, six have a 2015 Durham Bulls jersey with their name on it.

That’s chaos.

The Rays have the reputation of being very smart at gaming the system. But the cracks are showing. Who is taking care of the players themselves or trying to create a sense of team solidarity? What must it be like to never know who’s going to be on the field with you? Or where you will be playing?

Last night the Bulls infield had seven errors, a record on the year. The shortstop (Tim Beckham's first time this year), third base, and catcher committed two errors each. Second base just one. The catcher, Luke Maile, also got thrown out of the game in the 7th, apparently for pointing out to the home plate ump that he was being a complete ass for calling a ball based on a time violation in a 12-2 (the score at the time) game.

Vince Belnome, who hasn’t played at all in a couple of weeks, played three positions — DH, pitcher (3 runs, 1 earned, 2/3 of the 8th inning), and then swapped off to play first base while starting first baseman J.P. Arencibia pitched for the last out, giving up two more runs. Why position players? Well, the Bulls didn't have a starter because the Rays needed one since for some mysterious reason a postponed game meant ... whatever that could have meant ... got me. So we got a parade of relievers doing an inning or so each. And not doing all that well, to include giving up two grand slams.

Yes, the game was a disaster all around. But the larger question is, why?

Would not the Bulls, and the Rays, be better served by just sucking it up a bit in the interest of reducing chaos? That 134+ transactions so far this year is chaos incarnate.

For example, when the Monday game in Kansas City got postponed for a double header on Tuesday, did that really call for a starting pitcher shuffle that blew a hole that will last more than a  week in the Bulls starting rotation to no apparent advantage to the Rays?

I want to like the Rays, I really do, because they have given us a terrific baseball team for most of the last several years. But this year I have this persistent image of some unshaven youngster sitting in a mildewed Florida “lanai” with the rulebook in one hand and a couple of computers (one just for airline schedules) nearby creating a “perfect” model of how to have 25 numbers on a roster. But those numbers are people, and even if each individual move makes sense in isolation, the chaotic pattern is hurting the whole idea of a team. It’s all tactics, no strategy.

The Rays can, and should, do better by their fans, by Durham Bulls fans, and, most of all, the players in their system. Sit back and think about it for a minute. When the chaos outside the lines starts showing up inside the lines you’re in trouble.  Give some thought to the value of at least attempting to create some stability instead of gaming the system just because you can.

Capacity Crowd; Relievers Ragged

A, Mostly, Fun Fourth

Our Heaven Born BannerPatriotic print based on Frederic Edwin Church's small oil painting "Our Banner in the Sky"

Season: 43-39; Home Stand: 0-1
Wrap, Box, Herald-Sun

Yet another flurry of transactions led to right-hander Bradin Hagens starting the game in front of a record DBAP crowd. Hagins had a couple of starts at AAA last year in Reno for the Diamondback franchise. He was up from Montgomery a couple of weeks ago for a couple of innings in relief, then he went back. He did just fine (Game Score = 62). Plus he got home runs from Richie Shaffer, Taylor Motter, and J.P. Arencibia before he left the game after five innings.

After all our complaining about the starting pitching over the last few weeks it’s odd to be pointing out how poorly the bullpen did last night. After Hagens shut out the Tides for five innings, four relievers gave up five runs on 10 hits. In just one game the relievers’ ERA for the season went from 3.39 to 3.49, the worst it’s been since the very beginning of the year. Led off by José Dominguez, who gave up 2 runs in the 6th (and left two on base), each following pitcher gave up a run until in the 9th the winning run came across. Meanwhile the Bulls were baffled by a knuckleballer (Eddie Gamboa) and held runless for the rest of the game.

Too bad, because early in the game we were also treated to some wonderful defensive play including a 1B (Arencibia) to 3B (Shaffer) that cut down a lead runner in the 3rd; a perfect Maile to Franklin caught stealing; and near-perfect Boog Powell (left field) to Luke Maile at home. Unfortunately, the runner was in the way and he got nipped by the ball, so the throw ended up counting as an error (something not right about that, it seems).

Dylan Floro is up this afternoon. He has not done well in his last four games. Maybe today?

Rosterification —

The changes are just relentless. Just for the record

• The aforementioned Bradin Hagens is up from Montgomery.
• Pitcher Everett Teaford has gone to Tampa Bay
• Reliever Andy Oliver has opted out of his contract and gone for free agency. Decent job for the Bulls. 25 games, 28 innings, 5 holds, 1 save. He got the win over in Norfolk Friday. Maybe he wanted to go out on a high note? More likely watching all those guys going back and forth to St. Petersburg started working on his head.
• Jordan Norberto was moved to the “temporarily inactive” list. Have no idea what that means.
• C.J. Riefenhauser is on his way back from Tampa Bay
• Kirby Yates is back from Tampa Bay
• Infielder (1B) Marc Krause’s status was changed from being optioned to Durham to a Designated for Assignment, meaning he will come off the 40-man (and could possibly by claimed). That was to make room for Teaford.
• Reliever Ronald Belisario opted for free agency rather than come back to Durham.

Bats Bashed

 

Season: 36-26; Trip: 1-0
Wrap, Box, Courier-Journal

We like it when the Bulls play the Bats. Seems like a lot of the really exciting games over the last several years have been Bulls/Bats contests. Last night, though, was in the Bulls' hands.

Three games in a row the Bulls have scored 4 runs in an inning, and they have won all three games. This time it was two, two-run homers by J.P. Arencibia (#10) and Luke Maile (#2). Cory Brown got a homer in the 1st, and the Bulls now lead the International League in home runs with 48. J.P. Arencibia is tied for first place with his 10 and Cory Brown is in second place with 9.

Meanwhile Everett Teaford had his best game of the year with a GSc of 63, pitching 6 full innings giving up only 1 run.

Rosterification —

• The roster moves of the Rays are so bizarre that we’re going to do a separate post. Watch this space! Short version. The Rays are calling up three pitchers, sending one back and one to the DL; dumping a catcher; and calling up a catcher.

Hitting

This chart shows the team OPS for each of the last 15 games. The Bulls won 11 of those 15 games. The trend is very nice. But the scores for the last four games is very impressive. Undoubtedly the Bulls bats are very, very hot.

click on chart for larger view

Damp Time at the Park

 

Craig Robinson, of FlipFlopFlyBall, "Ballpark on Stilts"

Season: 30-24; Home Stand: 6-2
Box, Wrap, Herald-Sun

Matt Buschmann had his not-quite-worst outing of the season (worst would have been back on May 8th up in Syracuse). And the Bulls never quite got on track. Also to be noted was his his recent tendency (four in the his last two games) to hit guys. Last night the rain was certainly having its effect on his footing and his grip on the ball, though.

Seeking just a little bit of light, we have to note that this was the first time in his last 5 appearances that Jordan Norberto didn’t allow a run, and his first two-inning stint since April 22. Not much effect on his pretty awful numbers, but maybe ...

Meanwhile, "Please stop the rain ..."

Outside the game —

• Everett Teaford is back from Montgomery. Assume that he will go into the rotation.
• George Habel, Bulls front office exec, has been writing about the food choices at the DBAP.
• FlipFlopFlyBall is the website of artist and baseball obsessed infographics guy Craig Robinson. His drawing/painting above is part of a series putting ballparks in interesting places. Also note the Bull on his homepage. He has very graciously allowed WDBB to use a couple of his images this year. Please don't reuse them without his permission.

In the wings —

• Rehabbing Rays pitcher (and former Durham Bull) Matt Moore, 2.1 innings with Charlotte Stone Crabs. Box. Claw Digest.

One Hit Wonder

Season: 27-23; Home Stand: 3-1
Wrap, Box, Herald-Sun

This was billed as a pitchers’ duel and, in its way, it was. At least Matt Buschmann showed up for the gunfight. His opponent, the Chiefs' A.J. Cole, decided to commit suicide after the first three innings. I don’t know that I’ve seen a pitcher come so thoroughly unraveled as the Chief’s Cole did in the 4th. After getting a pop-up from J.P.Arencibia to start the inning, he then proceeded to walk the next five, count ‘em, five batters to drive in two runs and leave the bases loaded when he was pulled out at last. And they were not close calls, by the last three BBs the pitches were unreachable by the batters. A ground out by Ryan Brett scored the third run, before the inning ended with another ground out.

And to be clear, the Bulls were not hitting all night. In fact, the team only had 1 hit (by Juniel Querecuto in the 3rd inning) in 23 ABs. That’s a batting average of .043! Throw in the walks and hit batsmen and you get an OPS of .356. Not the worst of the year, but still less that half the league average.

Speaking of hit batsmen, the Bulls' Brett was hit, but Buschmann and Romero combined to hit three Chiefs for a season high.

We are beginning to expect a solid performance from Matt Bushmann, and we got another one last night. His Game Score of 70 is his fourth +50 start in a row and his 8th of the year. He has had only 2 starts with a less than 50 GSc.

Enny Romero is back and showed up in long relief after C.J. Riefenhauser got in his one inning of rehab. Romero had no walks and 4 Ks. And a lot of heat. Several 97 mph fastballs in the mix, but it did take him 50 pitches to get through his 2⅓. Ronald Belisario got his 11th save with a three-pitch, two batter appearance.

Mikie Mahtook’s 3 strikeout, 0 for 4 night just adds to our worries about the young man. He looked just fine in right field, but May has been ugly at the plate. In his last 44 ABs he has had 19 strikeouts and no walks. In fact, on the year he has drawn just 9 walks and only 1 this month. Yet, from the stands, he does not look all that awkward at the plate as hitters in slumps often do. As with much of the rest of this team, hitting coach Dave Myers has some work to do.

Outside the game —

• Everett Teaford has been sent down to Montgomery. The weakest of the Bulls starting crew, we wish him well.
• Ryan Brett officially came off of his rehab assignment. As we saw, he was in the game at 2B last night. Like essentially everyone else, he was hitless last night, but he did get an RBI as he drew one of the 4th inning walks.

Comparing Bulls Teams

Fifty games into the season, how do these Durham Bulls compare to previous teams? By the net Runs Scored measure, only so-so, but much better than the 2012 gang. Considering all the roster turmoil and injuries, things are doing better than might be expected.

click on chart for larger image

Win Streak Ends; Pitching Picture

Season: 26-23; Home Stand: 2-1
Wrap, Box, Herald-Sun, Rochester Wrap

We’ve been putting up a lot of stats lately that seem to back up the idea that starting pitching is important. This game was a good example because veteran (31) Everett Teaford never quite got a handle on the game. The 4th inning was particularly painful because he had two outs and none on base before things fell apart. Four doubles, a single, and a walk later he finally got the last out with two runners on base. Four runs had scored. The game was then pretty much out of reach given that the Red Wings starter was cruising. Note: The two runs in the 1st inning were scored after two outs had been recorded.

The Bulls did pull off a couple of double plays yesterday and, as was pointed out on twitter, the combination of Querecuto-Reginatto-Arencibia has a melodic turn. The 4-4-5 beat fits nicely into a song.

Otherwise, all the new guys didn’t do any better than the old guys and the rehabbers. Ryan Brett was back and did get a double and a walk at DH. Rehabbing C.J. Riefenhauser pitched an inning and gave up two hits, but no runs. Richie Shaffer came down from the clouds with a 0 for 3 day. Juniel Querecuto was 1 for 3. About the only hitter who had a good day was J.P. Arencibia who went 3 for 4 with an RBI.

Outside the game —

• The Bulls’ 5-game winning streak came to an end. They get a well-deserved day off today. Hope the weather stays nice.
• We could hope that the roster will stabilize, but there’s too many players on the disabled list here and with the Rays for that to happen. Eventually, you have to think folks are going to get healthy and stay healthy. Until that happens we can expect the constant shifting and changing of this team to continue.
• For example, yesterday it was announced that pitchers  Enny Romero and Preston Guilmet are coming back from the Rays.

Pitching Chart

This is a traditional stat, ERA-Earned Run Average, shown in a non-traditional way — as it changes over time, in this case over the last 15 games. Remember that less is more when it comes to ERA and the drift upwards shown in the team ERA is not a good thing. Today’s 3.60 puts the Bulls 7th in the 14-team International League. The Bulls lost 9 of these 15 games and obviously the pitching was a big piece of it. However, that’s a nice little downward trend in the starting pitcher ERA (not counting yesterday, of course). Overall, the reliever trend is very worrisome, especially as it was trending upwards even as the Bulls were winning. But, remember that it’s mostly relievers who have been spending all that time in the RDU and Tampa airports this month. 

click chart for larger image

A Win Against the RailRiders!

Season: 22-22; Trip: 2-4
Wrap, Box, Scranton Times-Tribune

Yes, this win was aided by the exceptional generosity of RailRiders pitchers and fielders (8 walks, 3 errors, 2 unearned runs), but you know what, the Bulls will probably be happy to take it. Over the last 10 games, the Bulls have lost 8, and 5 of those losses were to these RailRiders. It was nice to see the win.

I have mixed feelings about Everett Teaford. His ERA is up there at 5.50. His average Game Score (44) isn’t all that great. But he did a good job last night. Preston Guilmet got his first save of the year. He had 10 last year with the Norfolk Tides, so maybe we’ll see more of him in a closer role.

Mikie Mahtook went 1 for 5 last night with 3 K’s. He’s had 19 strikeouts in the last 10 games as his batting average has dropped down to .256. Worrisome.

But young Leonardo Reginatto is back and making the most of it, including a run scored and an RBI last night while batting in the 9 spot.

Outside the game —

• Vince Belnome was put on the disabled list yesterday, joining Hak-Ju Lee. That was the 59th transaction of the year.
• Alexi Casilla did not play last night.
• Two more games and the Bulls are back in town for 9 games over 11 days. Tomorrow’s game is their last game in the North Division in 2015. 
• An interesting analysis of the Tampa Bay region as a sports venue over at Rays Index. Attendance is a big issue down there. The implication is that the area has more sports than they can support. 
• Locally, however, we have one more baseball team, the Holly Springs Salamanders, a Coastal Plains League team playing in Holly Springs nice new park.

More on the Game Score stat —

Here’s the similar look at the Game Score stat I did yesterday, except for the Tampa Bay Rays. The circled data points are the anomalies — a below average GSc that the team won, above average GSc the team lost. What jumped out to me is how someone (hitters or relievers?) is not following up on good work by Jake Odorizzi. He had two terrific starts in the period (and one 49) and still the Rays lost the games.

click on chart for larger image

Walk-Off Losses; Rosterizing; and the Game Score Stat

Wrap, Box

The Rays don’t seem to know what they want Matt Andriese to become. He’s had 7 appearances with the Rays this year, three not-very-good starts and 4 relief appearances. With the Bulls he’s had a relief appearance and this start, which began well, but didn’t end all that great, followed by Jordan Norberto, who was awful.

Season: 21-22; Trip: 1-4
Wrap, Box, Scranton Times-Tribune

The Bulls then traveled to Moosic, Pennsylvania for a re-match against the RailRiders. Dylan Floro had a brilliant start, his best of the year, but Andrew Bellatti, just back from Tampa Bay couldn’t hang on.

Outside the game —

• Hak-Ju Lee has gone on the disabled list for an injury to his hand. I’ve missed all the details, but he was spiked on his glove hand and left the game Wednesday night.
• Leonardo Reginatto is back up from Montgomery and played last night.
• The team’s best hitter, Alexi Casilla, left game two on Tuesday evening and has not played since. First reported as a hamstring problem, but if someone’s got more current information, please add.
• Pitcher Everett Teaford went on the temporarily inactive list when Andrew Bellatti was added to the roster.

Game Score?

The Game Score stat and the importance of starting pitching.

I’ve been reading up on Bill James’ “Game Score” stat recently and tracking the Bulls (and the Rays) starting pitchers.

Game Score is a way of evaluating the performance of the starting pitcher. Overall the computation is pretty simple and fairly intuitive. And baseball seems to agree since it’s showing up in box scores.

Here’s how it’s calculated:

Start with 50 points. Add 1 point for each out recorded, (3 points per inning). Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4th. Add 1 point for each strikeout. Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed. Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed. Subtract 2 points for each unearned run allowed. Subtract 1 point for each walk.

And here’s one take on what it means (from the Wikipedia link):

The game score concept expands on Major League Baseball’s official definition of a “quality start”. MLB defines a quality start as six or more innings pitched while allowing three or fewer earned runs. The game score system defines a quality start as a game score above 50.
The advantage that the system has over the official definition is that it allows a statistician a better view of the degree of quality in a pitcher’s performance. Game scores can be quantified, and a pitcher’s performance tracked over time. It is also possible to compare different pitchers. If one averages a 60 and another averages 55, presumably the first pitcher has had a better season.

Does it pass the “so what?” test?

Maybe.

This chart shows the game scores of Bulls starting pitchers for the last 15 games. This has not been a good stretch for the Bulls, they’ve only won 4 games and they’ve lost 11. How does that track against starting pitcher performance? Pretty well. The circled scores are the only three anomalies of the 15. Otherwise it sure looks like an above average game score is associated with a team win (3 out of the 4 wins had above-50 game scores) and a low game score with a loss (9 out of 11 losses had below-50 scores). Please note that the wins and losses shown are team's wins and losses, not the pitcher's.

It sure looks like a good part of this recent tough run can be attributed to starting pitching.

click on chart for larger image

Bats Alive in Rhode Island; Hitting Trends

Wrap, Box, Morning Call

Season: 13-10; Trip: 4-1

Wrap, Box, Providence Journal

After a very early day game in Allentown, Pennsylvania the Bulls were off to Pawtucket, Rhode Island. There Jim Patterson flew in from “extended spring training” for his second start of the year. He did just fine. And he was followed by young Jhan Marinez (terrific), Bryce Stowell (premier middle reliever), and Ronald Belesario.

Meanwhile the Bulls hit three home runs, something they’ve only done once before this year. The first was a game-opening hit by Taylor Motter. The second was a three-run affair by J.P. Arencibia. And the third was a solo shot by Corey Brown.

We saw the very ugly, and endlessly replayed, play by Pawsox catcher Humberto Quintero. Mikie Mahtook was on second and attempted a steal of third. Luke Maile was at bat. Maile simply stood in the box and Quintero launched his throw to 3B right into Maile’s gut. Not OK, and Maile obviously felt it. But much worse was Quintero acting as if it was Maile’s fault. Would expect better from a 35 year-old veteran. Then things got very testy after a collision between Quintero and Hak-Ju Lee at second base later on in the game.

It was May 1 and the speed of game changes are in effect. A Pawtucket batter had a strike called in him because he was not in the box when he should have been.

Rosterizing —

• As noted, Jim Patterson is back from extended spring training
• Matt Andriese, who had five appearances with the Rays (two starts)  has been optioned to the Bulls to make room for Alex Colome. Probably will show up soon.
• Grant Balfour, a once great closer, and former Bull, has signed a minor league deal with the Rays and will be coming to the Bulls to see if he can regain the form he had with the Rays and the Athletics. The Australian should be fun to watch.
• Everett Teaford, who went up a couple of days ago, is on his way back.
• I don't think I've mentioned that Kirby Yates has gone on the disabled list. Fits with what we've seen since he came back to the Bulls.

Chart — Hitting

This is one way to look at the Bulls’ hitting performance. I’m using OPS (on base percentage + slugging) as a metric. That’s not my favorite batting stat, but for my purposes of trying to discern team trends, it’s OK. 

What is OPS? Well, it’s a combination of numbers you see on the scoreboard at each game. It is an effort to measure a player’s batting skill beyond batting average. It starts with On Base Percentage, essentially how often a player gets on base when he comes to bat — hit, walk, hit by pitch. And then you add to it the Slugging Average, which is the number of bases per at bat. One way to help understand slugging is that if you look up on the scoreboard and see a batting average that’s the same as the slugging average, it means he’s only hit singles so far this year.

There’s another stat I like better, called Weighted On Base Average, and I plot them both. But as far as trends go, I’m not seeing much difference.

This plots the OPS for each of the last 15 games. Included is the International League average over the last 3 years. The slight upward trend is a good thing. The Bulls’ overall OPS on the season is .690, which ranks them 6th out of 14 teams in the league.

click for larger chart

It Was a Dark and Windy Night, But ...

Season: 10-9; Trip: 1-0
Wrap, Box, Allentown Morning Call, Noise Nation

It was a miserable night in Allentown, 55° and windy, and from the first it looked as if the IronPigs would have the edge. Do you get used to that windy, cold place? Maybe not. Especially in the 4th when the wind helped former Bull Russ Canzler to a double and he eventually came around to score.

Speaking of Russ Canzler, since he broke into AAA with a great year with the Bulls in 2012 he has become possibly the leading expert on International League ballparks and locker rooms. He’s had playing time with the Columbus Clippers (Cleveland), the Indianapolis Indians (Pittsburgh), the Norfolk Tides (Baltimore), the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees (New York), and he is now in his second season with Philadelphia’s Lehigh Valley IronPigs. He had a pretty good spring. We liked him as a Bull. Always a threat since those days.

It was the 6th inning that did in the IronPigs. Wind starting helping rather than hindering when Mikie Mahtook tripled and then came home on a Joey Brown Butler [Sorry, Joey] double. Then an error (the ‘Pigs had 4 on the night, one by each infielder) put runners on first and third. A Luke Maile sacrifice fly brought in another run. A Eugenio Velez single put runners on first and second. But a spectacular catch by ‘Pigs center fielder Bugusevic kept things on track. However, a double brought home both runners and the Bulls had four runs in. Then the wheels really came off. The ‘Pigs changed pitchers and reliever Adam Loewen walked the next four batters, pushing in two more runs. Pitching change and a popup ended the inning.

That was enough. An ugly win, but still a win.

Rosterfication —

• I’m losing track of all the roster moves, but for the record, Alan Dykstra is now with the team.
• Reliever José Dominguez is back from Tampa Bay.
• Reliever Jhan Marinez has been called up from from Montgomery to pitch for the Bulls (he got in an inning Sunday night).
• Pitcher Jim Patterson has been sent to “extended Spring Training”, which is sort of like being assigned to Hudson Valley. Wink, wink, he’s probably still around, just can’t come into a game.
• Have I mentioned that Everett Teaford got called up the other day? He pitched in the Rays loss at Yankee Stadium last night. 

After the Deluge, First At-Home Win

Season: 5-7; Home Stand: 1-0
Wrap, Box, Herald-Sun [paywall]

The storms came and the fans stayed home (or went home) before Everett Teaford & Co got to show their stuff. The tarp crew has really earned its pay so far this year, and the year is very, very young.

Nevertheless, the Bulls have their first win at home and their first error-free game of the season.

After a 1½ hour delay Mr. Teaford started the game in control and stayed that way. It should be noted that the last time he started a game  there was a 2½  hour delay (Apr 15, the home opener). Perhaps the rain gods just don’t like him.

So very happy to have Mikie Mahtook back on the team. A timely hit in the 5th drove in two runs and a fielder’s choice in the 7th brought home a runner from third.

Jared Sandberg obviously likes having this team run. I’ve lost track of how many runners have been thrown out at home, at least a couple. The Bulls have 11 stolen bases so far, but have also been caught 7 times.

Outside the game —

• Alex Colome is in town for a rehabilitation start. He was in the Bulls rotation for much of 2013 and 2014 and we were never particularly impressed. He was tipped to be in the Rays starting rotation before pneumonia kicked him onto the disabled list. Rehab starts are not always a good thing for Bulls fans. We’ll have to wait and see.

Opening Day Dismal; Rosterification

AAAARGH!!!
DBAP 10:15 16 Apr 2015

Season: 3-4; Home Stand: 0-1
Wrap, Box, News & Observer, Herald-Sun

My condolences to: the players, the staff, the ground crew, and to us fans. By far the most miserable home opener in memory. I have to be honest: I was watching the webcam from home and when they had not pulled the tarp by 8:00 I decided not to go to the game.

And that was just the rain and wind ...

First look (via MiLB TV) at 30 year-old Alexi Everett Teaford. He grew up in the KC Royals system, had a decent 2011 with the Royals, so-so 2012, and spent most of 2013 pitching in Korea. [stats] He looks to be a product of the Rays search for value. Last night he had trouble right from the start and never quite recovered.

Meanwhile, the Tides’ Mike Wright pretty much handcuffed Bulls’ hitting.

Outside the game —

• Bulls reliever José Dominguez, whom we’ve never seen, got called up to the Rays and put in a very clean 1⅓ scoreless innings for them last night.
• Veteran Ronald Belisario has been added to the Bulls roster. Thirty-two year-old Belisario was signed to a minor league contract by the Rays and was thought to be in serious contention for a bullpen job until he discovered he’d fractured his off-shoulder in a swimming pool incident earlier this winter. He had a good ⅔ of an inning for the Bulls last night.
• Meanwhile, Mikie Mahtook got his first big league hit and it was a big one a home run. Video here. Story here.
• Lastly, WDBB favorite Kirby Yates is coming back for what could be a very short stay. The way it seems to work is that when a major leaguer gets sent “down” he can take a couple of days to get here. A player going “up” catches the next plane. In Yates’ case he simply was the odd man out as the Rays are attempting to manage a very complicated starter/reliever situation. There’s a chance that he may never pitch an inning for the Bulls.