Oh Give Me a Home ... Win

Wool E. Bull Takes a Shot
photo courtesy Sue Roth

Season: 46-42; Home Stand: 0-1
Wrap, Box, Herald-Sun

The Bulls have only won 20 games at home this year. Since June 10—that would be a month ago—they have won just two games in the DBAP. Last night wasn’t one of them.

Dylan Floro was back on early season form, giving up a lot of hits, but few runs. He was backed by some pretty good defense in a couple of double plays. However, Bulls hitters only got two singles until the 9th. So what we saw was a “pitchers’ duel” and a pretty good one until the 8th when usually very reliable Jim Miller walked a couple and gave up a three-run homer. Taylor Motter and J.P. Arencibia made the 9th noisy, but they could not begin to catch up.

Outside the game —

• Preston Guilmet, last seen at the DBAP on July 5th, is gone. He was DFA’d by the Rays and then claimed by the LA Dodgers. Must be tough to be a player in his position. The Rays claimed him from Toronto earlier this year, so he gets to wear a lot of uniforms in 2015.
• On the other hand, Everett Teaford, also DFA’d by the Rays, is on his way back. Nice to have a starting pitcher on the roster.
• And Andrew Belatti is returning after a long stay with the Rays. He went up to fill a DL hole in late May and then went on the disabled list himself. He came off the DL and pitched two innings for the Rays on July 8. Pushed off the bus to make room up there for Jake Odorizzi. No telling if the Rays will want him to start or work in relief. He did both for the Bulls earlier this year.
• The Bulls aren’t quite the draw on the road as they are at home. At home they are averaging 7,560 a game, on the road they are averaging 6,555. But, as the chart shows, crowds on the road are getting bigger as the summer goes on (April and May up north was really miserable).

click on chart

Chaos in Charlotte (and Durham and Kansas City and St Petersburg)

Season: 44-41; Trip: 0-1
Wrap, Box, Charlotte Observer

Did the chaos outside the  foul lines cross over into to being between the lines yesterday?

The Rays lost two games in Kansas City, 9-5 and 7-1, and the Bulls were crushed in Charlotte, 17-6. In their games the Rays used a couple of pitchers just arrived from Durham. But that’s just the visible signs of turmoil.

Since the first of July, just seven days ago, we’ve seen more than 13 transactions affecting Bulls (134+ on the year). And that doesn’t count Preston Guilmet who, after getting a save in the first Bulls home win in a looooong time, was DFA’d the next day. Or Everett Teaford, who was called up, pitched in both Rays games, and DFA’d immediately after. Or the first baseman who isn’t going to show up in Durham because he was claimed off waivers.

Every single one of the six, count ‘em, six(!) pitchers who threw for the Bulls last night (we won’t count the two position players), have been on the carousel back and forth from the Rays to the Bulls to the Rays this year. Of the 10 pitchers on the mound for the Rays in KC for those two games, six have a 2015 Durham Bulls jersey with their name on it.

That’s chaos.

The Rays have the reputation of being very smart at gaming the system. But the cracks are showing. Who is taking care of the players themselves or trying to create a sense of team solidarity? What must it be like to never know who’s going to be on the field with you? Or where you will be playing?

Last night the Bulls infield had seven errors, a record on the year. The shortstop (Tim Beckham's first time this year), third base, and catcher committed two errors each. Second base just one. The catcher, Luke Maile, also got thrown out of the game in the 7th, apparently for pointing out to the home plate ump that he was being a complete ass for calling a ball based on a time violation in a 12-2 (the score at the time) game.

Vince Belnome, who hasn’t played at all in a couple of weeks, played three positions — DH, pitcher (3 runs, 1 earned, 2/3 of the 8th inning), and then swapped off to play first base while starting first baseman J.P. Arencibia pitched for the last out, giving up two more runs. Why position players? Well, the Bulls didn't have a starter because the Rays needed one since for some mysterious reason a postponed game meant ... whatever that could have meant ... got me. So we got a parade of relievers doing an inning or so each. And not doing all that well, to include giving up two grand slams.

Yes, the game was a disaster all around. But the larger question is, why?

Would not the Bulls, and the Rays, be better served by just sucking it up a bit in the interest of reducing chaos? That 134+ transactions so far this year is chaos incarnate.

For example, when the Monday game in Kansas City got postponed for a double header on Tuesday, did that really call for a starting pitcher shuffle that blew a hole that will last more than a  week in the Bulls starting rotation to no apparent advantage to the Rays?

I want to like the Rays, I really do, because they have given us a terrific baseball team for most of the last several years. But this year I have this persistent image of some unshaven youngster sitting in a mildewed Florida “lanai” with the rulebook in one hand and a couple of computers (one just for airline schedules) nearby creating a “perfect” model of how to have 25 numbers on a roster. But those numbers are people, and even if each individual move makes sense in isolation, the chaotic pattern is hurting the whole idea of a team. It’s all tactics, no strategy.

The Rays can, and should, do better by their fans, by Durham Bulls fans, and, most of all, the players in their system. Sit back and think about it for a minute. When the chaos outside the lines starts showing up inside the lines you’re in trouble.  Give some thought to the value of at least attempting to create some stability instead of gaming the system just because you can.

Not Too Soon, Bulls Leave Ohio

Wrap, Box

Season: 43-38; Trip: 2-4
Wrap, Box, Toledo Blade

The Bulls finished off their trip to Ohio with a bang, three home runs (Arencibia, Motter, and Shaffer), and a fine pitching effort by Scott Diamond.

Their travels and travails these last couple of weeks may not be over as more roster moves have happened and likely more are coming. We have to admire the skills of Jared Sandberg even keeping a halfway decent team on the field during this period. And we have to admire the players whose every day starts and ends with uncertainty about their future. You have to think that their only thought is just to get out between the lines and play some baseball.

Nice to see Luke Maile back in the lineup yesterday. He’d been missing for a couple of days.

The Bulls will play Norfolk in Norfolk for two games, then come to Durham for a couple of games. Norfolk is now in the lead in the International League South Division. Their run up pretty much matches the Bulls’ fall over the same time period. See chart below for a picture of this season.

Moves —

• Pitchers C.J. Riefenhauser and Preston Guilmet to Tampa Bay
• Pitcher Kirby Yates to Durham
• First Baseman Marc Krause to Durham. Marc Krause played 4 games and got one hit for the Rays before getting sent to the Bulls . As a first baseman, he’s going to find a crowd over in that corner of the field — Shaffer, Arencibia, Belnome (and the recently departed Alan Dykstra) — unless the Rays make some room. July seems to be the month for dumping folks as the Rays invalid list seems to be improving. Stats.
• Ronald Belisario who did so well for the Bulls this year, has been DFA’d by the Rays. Will he end up back with the Bulls? Who knows.

click on chart for larger image

Good Pitching & Hitting, Umpire Thins Out Opposition

Season: 39-27; Trip: 4-1
Wrap, Box

With last night’s win the Durham Bulls went 12 games above .500, the best so far this year. Mid-season is only 6 games away (AAA only plays 144 games) and we have to say that the team’s record is terrific.

One reason is that they are getting good pitching from odd places. Last night reliever Jordan Norberto got his second start in a row and lasted even longer than last time. He essentially set the stage for Jim Miller, who got a win even though his stint was not impressive. Then the new guys, Robert Zarate and Kyle Winkler, pitched one inning each of shut out ball and semi-new guy Preston Guilmet (he seems to spend a lot of time on the Rays-Bulls shuttle) got his second save.

Another reason is youngster Richie Shaffer is just pounding the ball. I saw his shot last night and he just crushed a ball in that oddly shaped stadium. At the DBAP it might have gone over the Bull.

Maybe, just maybe, Alan Dykstra is coming out of his season-long slump. He was 3 for 4 last night and made his way above the Mendoza Line to .210. And there’s Cory Brown, who was named the International League Hitter of the Week yesterday. He had a very timely triple in the 6th that won the game for the Bulls.

For oddity, how about this? The home plate umpire threw out three Indians last night, all for grousing about balls and strikes. First it was hitting coach Butch Wynegar in the 3rd. Then in the 9th it was catcher Tony Sanchez, followed by manager Dean Treanor. The Bulls have seen a lot of this particular umpiring crew, 16 games this season. Last night it was a four-man version. It strikes me as particularly stupid for a catcher to argue balls and strikes on the first game of a three-game series.

Rostering —

• Two Bulls pitchers had Jun 15th opt-out clauses in their contracts: Matt Buschmann and Ronald Belisario. Just what circumstances were involved in the clauses aren’t clear (typically assignment to the 25-man active squad). Nevertheless, according to Broadcaster Patrick Kinas, both have exercised their options. That means the Rays have 48 hours to do some kind of deal or both players are gone. No matter what happens, it would seem that neither player will be back in a Bulls uniform. Also according to Kinas, both players were still with the team last night as they wait for decisions down in St. Petersburg.
• Too bad for the Bulls. Buschmann was the front end and Belisario was the back end of quite a few Bulls wins this year. Belisario is probably the best closer in the International League and Buschmann, while he’s never made it to the major leagues, is certainly an above average pitcher.  
• Meanwhile, catcher Bobby Wilson, the Rays backup catcher all this year, has accepted an assignment to the Bulls and should show up in a couple of days. That could add a lot of experience and depth to the team. Stats.
• And then there’s Grady Sizemore, who was signed yesterday by the Rays. He’ll probably show up with the Bulls after spending some time with the Stone Crabs. Not sure about that one. Stats.
• Additional commentary here and here, 

Rays' Memo to Sandberg: Toss Lineup Card in Shredder

From this distance it would seem that the Tampa Bay Rays need to do a few things:

1. Fire their training crew and get some folks in that can keep pitchers healthy;
2. Lease a jet to shuttle guys around from place to place; maybe one of those Russian monster transports so they could put a bullpen inside to warm guys up while moving around;
3. Or both of the above.

Here we go, not necessarily in order:

• Andrew Bellatti, with Rays, got broken and went on the DL
• Preston Guilmet, who pitched for the Rays last night, is coming back
• Matt Andriese, who was scheduled to start in Louisville tonight, may start for the Rays instead, here’s hoping they don’t break him, too
• Enny Romero, who may not have ever made it back into a Bulls uniform will be back with the Rays.
• C.J. Riefenhauser has been called up.
• Rays catcher Bobby Wilson was designated for assignment
• Bulls catcher, Curt Casali, likely to be called up.
• Bulls infielder Alexi Casilla went back on the DL with, I think, a hamstring issue.
• Bulls infielder/DH Vince Belnome came off the DL and was the DH last night.

Commentary on the transactions at various locations. Tampa Tribune, Rays Colored Glasses, The Process Report, Rays Index.

Will there be some backfill for the Bulls? Probably. In time to find a starter for tonight? Who knows?

Here’s best wishes to Curt Casali. He has had limited playing time this year and this may be his chance. Guess that Mayo Acosta will be filling in for a while.

How to Win a Marathon

Season: 35-26; Home Stand: 3-0
Wrap, Box, Herald-Sun

The finish of this longest game of the year (4:12) is well-covered at the links, including the heroics of infielder Leonardo Reginatto who now has a place in the 2015 Durham Bulls record books as a pitcher.

But how in the world did they get there when they had a 7-3 lead going into the 6th inning? Well, I’d like to blame the Tampa Bay Rays, who told the Bulls not to start Matt Andriese, so they had to go with Jordan Norberto who had never started a game in his professional career, and who was, by WDBB’s measures, the Bulls’ worst reliever. But Norberto got out of his 2+ innings in decent shape. The Rays also took away a reliever, Preston Guilmet, which came into play later on.

But we have to admit that the first big mistake was leaving generally superb reliever Jim Miller in the game with two outs in the 6th. Jared Sandberg was ready to take him out since he was over 50 pitches and C.J. Riefenhauser was ready to go. Sandberg, who seems to be quicker with the hook that Charlie Montoyo, even went out to the mound. But Miller apparently talked Sandberg out of pulling him. Didn’t work. The very next batter hit a home run and the IronPigs were then 4 runs back at 7-3. Riefenhauser came in to finish out the 6th.

Andy Oliver, not the Bulls’ best reliever, but not the worst either, came on in the 8th, struck out a batter, then loaded the bases with three quick walks. The last man standing in the Bulls’ bullpen was closer Ronald Belisario. Yes, it was true that this would be his 12th appearance in the last 21 Bulls’ games, but that’s what closers do, right? This was to be, however, a 5-out save and Belisaro had only attempted that twice before this year: one save and one loss. On the other hand, the Bulls really did not have a choice in the matter. The bullpen was empty.

A run scored on an infield out at first and the next batter flied out. The Bulls got the run back on a Reginatto double in the bottom of the inning, so they went into the 9th with a comfortable 3-run lead. After all, Belisario does lead the IL in saves.

A walk, a single, and a home run (by former Bull Russ Canzler), and the game was tied. The marathon began. Young Brazilian infielder Reginatto kept the Bulls in the game until the IronPigs pitching faded in the bottom of the 12th. Note that the rules of the game meant Reginatto also had to keep on coming to bat, which he did in the 12th. He was hit by a pitch and was on 2nd base when Taylor Motter’s home run brought home Hak-Ju Lee to win the game.

Outside the game —

• As mentioned, Preston Guilmet has been called up. Enny Romero is coming back. Kirby Yates was taken off his rehab status and is coming on to the Bulls roster.

In the wings —

• According to the Tampa Tribune’s Roger Mooney, Matt Moore will have a rehab start with the Durham Bulls on June 18. That would be their first home game after the Bulls get back from their current trip.

The Bulls are now alone in first place in the International League South Division.

Win Streak Ends; Pitching Picture

Season: 26-23; Home Stand: 2-1
Wrap, Box, Herald-Sun, Rochester Wrap

We’ve been putting up a lot of stats lately that seem to back up the idea that starting pitching is important. This game was a good example because veteran (31) Everett Teaford never quite got a handle on the game. The 4th inning was particularly painful because he had two outs and none on base before things fell apart. Four doubles, a single, and a walk later he finally got the last out with two runners on base. Four runs had scored. The game was then pretty much out of reach given that the Red Wings starter was cruising. Note: The two runs in the 1st inning were scored after two outs had been recorded.

The Bulls did pull off a couple of double plays yesterday and, as was pointed out on twitter, the combination of Querecuto-Reginatto-Arencibia has a melodic turn. The 4-4-5 beat fits nicely into a song.

Otherwise, all the new guys didn’t do any better than the old guys and the rehabbers. Ryan Brett was back and did get a double and a walk at DH. Rehabbing C.J. Riefenhauser pitched an inning and gave up two hits, but no runs. Richie Shaffer came down from the clouds with a 0 for 3 day. Juniel Querecuto was 1 for 3. About the only hitter who had a good day was J.P. Arencibia who went 3 for 4 with an RBI.

Outside the game —

• The Bulls’ 5-game winning streak came to an end. They get a well-deserved day off today. Hope the weather stays nice.
• We could hope that the roster will stabilize, but there’s too many players on the disabled list here and with the Rays for that to happen. Eventually, you have to think folks are going to get healthy and stay healthy. Until that happens we can expect the constant shifting and changing of this team to continue.
• For example, yesterday it was announced that pitchers  Enny Romero and Preston Guilmet are coming back from the Rays.

Pitching Chart

This is a traditional stat, ERA-Earned Run Average, shown in a non-traditional way — as it changes over time, in this case over the last 15 games. Remember that less is more when it comes to ERA and the drift upwards shown in the team ERA is not a good thing. Today’s 3.60 puts the Bulls 7th in the 14-team International League. The Bulls lost 9 of these 15 games and obviously the pitching was a big piece of it. However, that’s a nice little downward trend in the starting pitcher ERA (not counting yesterday, of course). Overall, the reliever trend is very worrisome, especially as it was trending upwards even as the Bulls were winning. But, remember that it’s mostly relievers who have been spending all that time in the RDU and Tampa airports this month. 

click chart for larger image

Buschmann Rules

Season: 22-22; Trip: 3-4
Wrap, Box, RailRidersBlog

The Bulls pulled back up to .500 with their second win in a row, giving every appearance of coming out of their slump. But also give credit to Matt Buschmann for another superb outing (Game Score: 77).

I wasn’t listening, nor have I read any follow-up, but pulling Jordan Norberto after just two batters does not look good. Here’s hoping that he’s OK.

Meanwhile, a much-reduced player crew took the field and put together a three-run 5th inning that was enough to win the game.

Outside the game —

• By much reduced, I mean really much reduced. In the last few days three infielders have gone on the disabled list: Hak-Ju Lee, Vince Belnome, and Alexi Casilla. Leonardo Reginatto was called back from Montgomery and Tim Beckham is on his way, but the next couple of days are going to be tricky. As far as I can tell, today the Bulls have one player on the bench, whomever isn’t catching. Catcher Mayo Acosta is probably traveling with the team and could probably be activated, though.
• Pitcher  Enny Romero went to St. Petersburg, pitched three innings, and is coming back. Talk about a long walk from and to the bullpen! He did his job, but did walk in a run.
• To take his place, Bulls reliever Preston Guilmet was called up. He has 14 appearances in the majors, 4 in 2013 and 10 last year with Baltimore, so he’s been there before. Good luck!

My Last Game Score Chart

After two days of looking at Game Scores over time, what about individuals? Here’s the average game scores this season for Durham Bulls starters. It’s a pretty close match to our view of them measured by other stats. Beginning to think this may be a pretty useful for evaluating starters. Note that here in AAA not all starting pitchers are destined to remain starting pitchers. And a not-so-good sign for the Bulls is to note that #2 and #3 are on the 40-man and are already going back and forth to the Rays.

Update: Third Baseman Richie Shaffer called up from Montgomery Biscuits [stats]

A Win Against the RailRiders!

Season: 22-22; Trip: 2-4
Wrap, Box, Scranton Times-Tribune

Yes, this win was aided by the exceptional generosity of RailRiders pitchers and fielders (8 walks, 3 errors, 2 unearned runs), but you know what, the Bulls will probably be happy to take it. Over the last 10 games, the Bulls have lost 8, and 5 of those losses were to these RailRiders. It was nice to see the win.

I have mixed feelings about Everett Teaford. His ERA is up there at 5.50. His average Game Score (44) isn’t all that great. But he did a good job last night. Preston Guilmet got his first save of the year. He had 10 last year with the Norfolk Tides, so maybe we’ll see more of him in a closer role.

Mikie Mahtook went 1 for 5 last night with 3 K’s. He’s had 19 strikeouts in the last 10 games as his batting average has dropped down to .256. Worrisome.

But young Leonardo Reginatto is back and making the most of it, including a run scored and an RBI last night while batting in the 9 spot.

Outside the game —

• Vince Belnome was put on the disabled list yesterday, joining Hak-Ju Lee. That was the 59th transaction of the year.
• Alexi Casilla did not play last night.
• Two more games and the Bulls are back in town for 9 games over 11 days. Tomorrow’s game is their last game in the North Division in 2015. 
• An interesting analysis of the Tampa Bay region as a sports venue over at Rays Index. Attendance is a big issue down there. The implication is that the area has more sports than they can support. 
• Locally, however, we have one more baseball team, the Holly Springs Salamanders, a Coastal Plains League team playing in Holly Springs nice new park.

More on the Game Score stat —

Here’s the similar look at the Game Score stat I did yesterday, except for the Tampa Bay Rays. The circled data points are the anomalies — a below average GSc that the team won, above average GSc the team lost. What jumped out to me is how someone (hitters or relievers?) is not following up on good work by Jake Odorizzi. He had two terrific starts in the period (and one 49) and still the Rays lost the games.

click on chart for larger image

A Win and, How Bad is the DBAP Press Box?

Wrap, Box, Rochester Democrat & Chronicle

Wrap, Box

Season: 21-20; Trip: 1-2
Wrap, Box, Rochester Democrat & Chronicle

At last! A win. A bit ugly what with 3 errors and 12 runners left on base. But a win nonetheless with good jobs turned in by Enny Romero, Jhan Marinez (ERA 0.55 after 8 appearances and 16 innings!), and Ronald Belisario, who came into the game in the 8th with 1 out and runners on 1B and 2B and K’d the Red Wings out. A clean 9th inning got him his 7th save. New guy Preston Guilmet started the 8th and Jared Sandberg had had enough after 3 hits, two runs scored, and only one out.

Alexi Casilla left the game early on for an undisclosed (so far) reason. If anybody hears anything, please add to comments.

Outside the game —

In the “now it can be told” category.

First, let me point out that WDBB is not considered to be part of the "media" and we have never been in the press box or the broadcast booth (old or new) at the DBAP. Never thought to ask, to be honest. They might have let me in, but probably not now. And let me say that from where I sit, I have a hard time telling a curve from a slider from a changeup without checking the speed gun.

Now, on to the story …

I was watching the MiLB TV version of one of the games and listening to the Red Wings' broadcast team since the delay for Patrick Kinas was at least a minute or so and arrived well after the action on the screen. One of the broadcasters, whose name I didn’t catch, went into a fairly lengthy rant about the DBAP broadcast booth.

According to him, it's the worst in all of the International League. No other place in the IL puts the broadcasters where they can’t see the game! He likes the park, hates the booth. As we all know, the broadcasters are high up above first base, so they obviously don't have a very good angle to observe pitches. Nor can they see all of right field. And when the fans stand up, apparently their view is completely blocked. So the broadcasters end up calling the game from the video monitors.

I’ve wondered about that odd configuration myself. As we all can see, with the remodel came a club-like spot up above home plate, which must be really nice for the fans, but ... remember those scenes from “Bull Durham” where the broadcaster is essentially faking his calls?

Just how do folks way up above first base tell exactly where the ball crossed the plate?

Bulls Slide to Third Place

Wrap, Box, Herald-Sun

Steve Wiseman in the Herald-Sun pretty much said it all in his first sentence: “The Durham Bulls had chances and chances and more chances to score and avoid extra innings on Friday night.”

Amen.

Season: 20-17; Home Stand: 0-3

Wrap, Box, Herald-Sun, Standings

OK, I know it was Star Wars night and all, but those were quite possibly the ugliest uniforms I’ve ever seen on baseball players. And then the Durham Bulls went from first place to third place in the International League South as this even uglier home stand continues.

Dylan Floro looked pretty good through the first four innings, got hit hard in the 5th (2 doubles and a single, one run); and hit harder in the 6th, two singles and a home run. Not sure why Floro gets to stay up into the 90’s in his pitch count while other pitchers are being pulled much earlier.

New guy Preston Guilmet, last seen pitching for the Buffalo Bisons but claimed from the Toronto system the other day, had a nice inning, as did Jhan Marinez, but it was too late. The Bulls haven’t hit the ball well for the last week. In fact, last night all the offensive excitement was over after the first two batters, a single by Taylor Motter and a home run by Nick Franklin.

Rosterizing —

• Infielder Leonardo Reginatto has been sent back to Montgomery. We liked watching him play and he was doing a decent job at bat (.300/.323/.350). He’ll probably be back when/if the Rays give up on Hak-Ju Lee.
• Bryce Stowell was also sent to the Montgomery Biscuits. Too bad, because he had pretty decent numbers. I expect he will be back as well.
• As mentioned above, the Rays claimed reliever Preston Guilment from the Toronto Blue Jays. Stats. He looked just fine last night.
• Rehabbing Jake McGee is on his way back to Tampa Bay.
• Rehabbing Nick Franklin was pulled from the game after his home run last night. So he might be on his way back as well.
• José Dominguez came of the disabled list and should be in the bullpen for today’s game.
• According to The Tampa Tribune, Andrew Bellatti is coming back to the Bulls. He did a terrific job as a reliever for the Rays. We’ll have to see if he’s going to be starting or in relief as a Bull. 

Standings Chart

For a couple of days the Tides and the Knights were losing games along with the Bulls. Not yesterday, so that changes the chart to show the Bulls sliding into third place.

www.watchingdurhambullsbaseball.com