Best (Former) Bull Beats Bulls

Season: 41-37; Trip: 1-3
Wrap, Box, Toledo Blade

Not much new in the basics of the game story, much like the last couple of weeks — not all that good of starting pitching (although better than some in recent days), very good pitching by opponents, another loss. That would be nine losses and two wins since the Bulls came home back on June 18th. So lets just jump right to the oddities.

The first Toledo Mud Hen hit of the day, who eventually scored the Mud Hens first run, didn’t come until the 3rd inning. It was a single by their new second baseman, Alexi Casilla. Who? That’s right, Alexi Casilla! It seems that yesterday morning the “data-driven” Rays traded the Bulls' best hitter to Detroit for something not reported (money? player?). Detroit assigned Casilla to the Mud Hens and I’m guessing he just drug his bags from one locker room to the other sometime before the game.

Good Luck, Alexi. Loved watching you play and you helped the Bulls while you were with them.

Something had to give when Tim Beckham finally showed up. However, in keeping with WDBB tradition, we gloriously struck out the other day by naming three, count ‘em, three possibilities. I whiffed on all three. Age before beauty, I guess. Looking back at our hitters chart from a few days ago, three of the “above average” guys are gone — Alexi Casilla, Allan Dykstra, and Eugenio Velez — while all of the below-average crew remains. Don’t get me wrong, I like all of those guys. It’s just that something other than these data are driving the Rays decisions.

Meanwhile Tim Beckham is finally in a Bulls uniform and playing third base. Third base? Well, of course he is. The fact that in 623 minor league games and in 32 major league games he never once played third base should be no real surprise. We’ll see. What’s next? Center field? That’s what was done with the famous Melvin (formerly known as B.J.) Upton. Beckham did get two hits, stole a base, and scored the only run. Oh, he also picked up his first error as a third baseman (a throw in the bottom of the 8th). In fact, we are happy to have him with the Bulls. Here's hoping he stays healthy and shows some of that bat pop he had at the end of last season.

Split in Ohio

Season: 41-36; Trip: 1-2
Wrap, Box 1, Box 2, Columbus Dispatch

The way the first game went, it looked as if the Bulls were back on track with exceptional starting pitching from new guy Robert Zarate and timely hitting from Ryan Brett and Corey Brown. Included in the good news was their first shutout since June 7 (OK, a 7 inning game, but it still looked good). J.P. Arencibia had his game as a catcher in the game as well (no wild pitches, no passed balls, no steals, pretty good).

The Bulls and the Clippers both went to their bullpens for the second game, and that looked OK until Ernesto Frieri could not hold on to the tie game in the 7th.

Richie Shaffer played first base in both games. A rusty Alexi Casilla struck out three times in the second game. New guy Boog Powell got two singles and two walks in the first game, plus a triple in the second game.

The Bulls will play a two-game set against the Clippers in August at the DBAP. Let’s hope they get a grip on themselves before then. This 1- 6 stretch has been tough.

Outside the game—

• Norfolk now leads the IL South Division.
• Matt Andriese is reportedly heading back to the Bulls.
• Scott Diamond has been assigned to the Montgomery Biscuits, but I’m suspicious about that. Smells like a paper transaction to me. He hasn’t been below AAA since 2010. I’m guessing he had an opt out, is looking for another job, or is about to be released. Decent numbers for a 2015 Bulls starter. In fact, he is essentially the best of the surviving three (Floro and Teaford being the other two).
• Bulls are off to Toledo to see if they have any better luck in that part of Ohio.

Continuing my interest in the Game Score stat, here’s the last 15 games. It shows the pretty dismal performance of the starting pitchers over the last several games. Starting pitching isn’t everything, of course, but it does make a difference.

click on chart for larger image

Bulls Hitters at Mid-Season

We last looked at the Durham Bulls hitters as of May 17th. Now we are only two games from the Bulls’ mid-season. So how are hitters doing?

[Note: We used a cutoff of 50 plate appearances to generate our list. Players below the 50 plate appearance cutoff were Bobby Wilson, Juniel Querecuto, Mayo Acosta, and Nick Franklin]

This table is sorted by Weighted on Base Average (wOBA), which is one of those newish stats that makes a lot of sense once you dig into it. It essentially weights the various ways a batter can get on base. The explanation at the link might help. The second not-usual stat is Weighted Runs Above Average (wRAA). That stat compares the player to the rest of the league in terms of runs contributed.

The players marked by an asterisk are on the Tampa Bay Rays 40-man roster. The players marked with a strike-thru are players who have been with the Bulls and might be coming back before the year is out. Butler went up to the Rays and hasn’t come back yet (and is doing so well that he might not). Curt Casali and Jake Elmore went up, Reginatto came back up from Montgomery and was just sent back down.

Richard Shaffer is new to the Bulls and has the least number of plate appearances of the group. But his numbers are superb. Alexi Casilla remains very high, but he has spent a lot of time on the DL in the last month, as shown by his relatively low plate appearances. Deserving of special mention is the exceptional year that Taylor Motter is having.

The last column in the table is the change in wOBA since the May 17th. The best performances are of  Alan Dykstra and Corey Brown, both of them going from negative wRAAs to positive.

I was surprised at J.P. Arencibia’s numbers. Subjectively, I thought he was doing better than that. I remain very worried about the season that Mikie Mahtook, Vince Belnome, and Hak-Ju Lee are having (as are they, I am sure).

Name	Age	PA	AVG	OPS	wOBA	wRAA	Change
Richard Shaffer	24	82	.300	1.090	.484	9.6	NA
*Joey Butler	29	94	.317	.892	.414	6.2	NA
Alexi Casilla	30	134	.328	.865	.399	7.4	-.018
*Jake Elmore	28	110	.326	.814	.395	5.8	.025
Taylor Motter	25	285	.291	.759	.349	5.4	.008
Corey Brown	29	222	.236	.759	.347	3.9	.035
Allan Dykstra	28	159	.214	.712	.344	2.5	.063
Eugenio Velez	33	222	.276	.711	.335	2.0	-.006
*Curt Casali	26	132	.205	.674	.325	0.2	.039
J.P. Arencibia	29	206	.230	.701	.320	-0.4	-.039
*Mikie Mahtook	25	198	.239	.647	.302	-3.1	-.040
Leonardo Reginatto	25	134	.269	.606	.284	-3.8	-.031
Luke Maile	24	173	.200	.574	.281	-5.3	.018
Vince Belnome	27	162	.180	.554	.278	-5.3	-.021
*Hak-ju Lee	24	178	.235	.588	.275	-6.2	.019
*Ryan Brett	23	122	.205	.558	.262	-5.4	NA

What wOBA Means

wOBA
Excellent	.400
Great	.370
Above Average	.340
Average	.320
Below Average	.310
Poor	.300
Awful	.290

There're Holes in Our Bats,

Dear Wool E, Dear Wool E.
There're holes in our bats,
Dear Wool E., some holes.
(apologies to Harry Belafonte...)

Season: 30-30; Home Stand: 2-0
Wrap, Box, Herald-Sun

Bulls hitters struck out 18 times last night, setting a season record. Usually dangerous Cory Brown led the pack with 4. Probably some sort of hex for being the first Bull to be named hitter of the week this year. New catcher Bobby Wilson was in the lineup and got one of the Bulls 4 hits.

What about the pitching? Really not all that bad, except for Andy Oliver in the 8th. In that inning he gave up just one single and then struck out the three remaining batters. Problem was that the guy who singled was wild pitched completely around the bases! So he took an earned run on his outing.

The Herald-Sun reported that manager Jared Sandberg was ejected from the game, but it doesn’t show up in the box score, so not entirely sure that the Herald-Sun got it right.

Rosterification (Are you tired of trying to keep track? So am I) —

• Pitcher C.J. Riefenhauser is back from Tampa Bay
• Infielder Alexi Casilla came off the DL and played second base last night.
• Infielder Leonardo Reginatto was sent to Montgomery (where he hit a triple and a home run last night).
• Pitcher Kyle Winkler was sent to Montgomery

Outside the game —

• Montgomery Biscuits blogger “Dr. Miraculous” is not happy with the way the Tampa Bay Rays treat his team. Interesting read. 
• Groundsman Scott Strickland tweeted a terrific photo from the night before last. Thrilling moment.

Last nights storms were pretty solid... pic.twitter.com/Agd9Lxyxow

— Scott Strickland (@DurhamBullsTurf) June 19, 2015

Rays' Memo to Sandberg: Toss Lineup Card in Shredder

From this distance it would seem that the Tampa Bay Rays need to do a few things:

1. Fire their training crew and get some folks in that can keep pitchers healthy;
2. Lease a jet to shuttle guys around from place to place; maybe one of those Russian monster transports so they could put a bullpen inside to warm guys up while moving around;
3. Or both of the above.

Here we go, not necessarily in order:

• Andrew Bellatti, with Rays, got broken and went on the DL
• Preston Guilmet, who pitched for the Rays last night, is coming back
• Matt Andriese, who was scheduled to start in Louisville tonight, may start for the Rays instead, here’s hoping they don’t break him, too
• Enny Romero, who may not have ever made it back into a Bulls uniform will be back with the Rays.
• C.J. Riefenhauser has been called up.
• Rays catcher Bobby Wilson was designated for assignment
• Bulls catcher, Curt Casali, likely to be called up.
• Bulls infielder Alexi Casilla went back on the DL with, I think, a hamstring issue.
• Bulls infielder/DH Vince Belnome came off the DL and was the DH last night.

Commentary on the transactions at various locations. Tampa Tribune, Rays Colored Glasses, The Process Report, Rays Index.

Will there be some backfill for the Bulls? Probably. In time to find a starter for tonight? Who knows?

Here’s best wishes to Curt Casali. He has had limited playing time this year and this may be his chance. Guess that Mayo Acosta will be filling in for a while.

Bulls Win; Nice to See Joe Dillon Back

Dan Johnson, Joe Dillon, Jose Lobaton
Walking back to dugout after a Lobaton home run
July 5, 2010

Season: 28-23; Home Stand: 4-1
Wrap, Box, Herald-Sun, Rays Colored Glasses

What a terrific home stand this is becoming for us fans. Big crowds. Interesting baseball. And a bunch of wins. Plus we have 4 more games to go. Life is good!

Very pleased to see our favorite 2015 Bull, Alexi Casilla, back in the game after some time on the disabled list. Slightly annoyed that WDBB is the only place that recognizes that he’s the best hitter on the team. But maybe they’ll come around.

Ryan Brett DH’d and led off with a home run his first at bat. Things were quiet until the 5th when Richie Shaffer, whose bat had been quiet since his fabulous first game with the Bulls, poked one over the Blue Monster. Unfortunately, a Shaffer error and a single took starter Scott Diamond out of the game. An unimpressive José Dominguez gave up a single and then walked in a run, bringing up some bad memories of all the runs the Chiefs had given the Bulls on Friday night. He got out of the inning, however, with a strikeout and a popup, leaving the bases loaded.

The Rays/Bulls are certainly being cautious with Mr. Dominguez. Since coming off the DL he’s only had 5 appearances, none of them particularly successful.

Jordan Norberto came on for the 7th and it got a bit ugly after two outs. Two singles and Jared Sandberg was quick with the hook, giving the ball to the spectacular young Jhan Mariñez. But Mariñez’ last outing was a one-out save on May 24th. It took him two batters to shake the rust off. First he hit a batter to load the bases, then he walked in the Chief’s second run. He got a ground out and then struck out the side in the 8th. But the game was tied.

It got very interesting in the 8th. Alexi Casilla grounded out. Ryan Brett singled off the pitcher’s glove and Taylor Motter singled to right. Mikie Mahtook struck out and Alan Dykstra came to bat.

When Mahtook came to bat, broadcaster Patrick Kinas began a lengthy exposition on the positioning of Chief’s center fielder Darin Mastroianni, pointing out how shallow he was and that, especially after Mahtook’s K, it didn’t make any sense to play that shallow. Essentially, and I’m sure he has made all his colleagues in the booth aware of it, he called the shot for Dykstra. Dykstra put the 5th pitch he saw over Mastroianni’s head, both runners scored, and the Bulls were up 4-2.

Ronald Belisario, in the grand tradition of Bulls’ closers, gave us some thrills in the 9th. He gave up two singles before Alexi Casilla started one double play, then made a very pretty grab and throw for the third out. It was his 12th save, which ranks him #2 in the International League.

Outside the game —

• About that photo up top. Joe Dillon was one of my favorite Durham Bulls back in 2009 and 2010. What I admired about him in those years was how hard he worked and how much he seemed to love the game. What I like about that photo is how looks to me so much like three guys on their way home from work. The photo says to me, “We’re baseball players, this is what we do.” You can see him tonight, probably out at third base when the Chiefs are at bat. He’s their hitting coach. Nice to see him back at the DBAP.
• When Alexi Casilla came off the DL somebody had to go. After 4 games with the Bulls, Juniel Querecuto went back to the Charlotte Stone Crabs. 
• Tampa Bay Rays infielder Tim Beckham tweaked a hamstring in last night's game in Baltimore. If serious, we can expect ripple effects down here.

Welcome to the New Durham Bulls!

Season: 25-22; Home Stand: 1-0
Wrap, Box, Herald-Sun

When the Bulls took the field last night not one of the players on the infield started the season with the Bulls. Not one. We won’t count catcher Luke Maile. Starting pitcher Matt Andriese has only had three appearances with the Bulls. First Baseman J.P. Arencibia’s first game was in mid-April. At second base was Leonardo Reginatto who began the season with the Montgomery Biscuits and played his first game for the Bulls on April 23, but he has gone back to Montgomery once along the way. At shortstop was Juniel Querecuto, who was called up from the Single A Charlotte Stone Crabs just yesterday. And at third base was Richie Shaffer who was called up from the Montgomery Biscuits on Sunday.

This, of course, reflects the chaos down in St. Petersburg, but the Bulls have a few of their own homegrown problems. On the DL and leaning against the dugout railing last night were, as reported in the Bulls Game Notes,  Hak-Ju Lee (left hand laceration), Vince Belnome (shoulder), and not seen, but on the list, Alexi Casilla (hamstring).

Meanwhile on the field the Red Wings’ Jason Wheeler went 5 innings allowing only one baserunner, Luke Maile. But the 6th didn’t go so well. Maile led off with a single. New guy Juniel Querecuto hit a double; Taylor Motter singled those two home. Leonardo Reginatto singled. Eugenio Velez singled. Curt Casali doubled home 2 runs. That was then end of Wheeler’s night. But after a K and an intentional walk of Corey Brown, the other new guy, Richie Shaffer, hit a sacrifice fly to bring in the last run.

By the way, after his extraordinary start where he had a slash line on his first appearance of 800/.800/2.200 (Batting Average/On-Base Percentage/Slugging) to go with 3 RBI; Richie Shaffer’s numbers have plummeted to: .571/.500/1.571 with 4 RBI on 7 at bats. Still not too bad.

Outside the game —

• As mentioned, there’s chaos down in Tampa Bay. Tim Beckham got turned around on his way to Durham and started at shortstop for the Rays last night. He went 1 for 3 in their loss to the Seattle Mariners. Jake Elmore was called up from the Bulls, started in left field, and was 2 or 2 with a walk.
• By the way, note who is playing center field for the Seattle Mariners: Long time Durham Bull, and member of the All-DBAP team,  Justin Ruggiano. I had lost track of him.
• The really important news is that the Bull Durham Beer Company is brewing and serving. I am far from expert on the subject of beer, but I tried the Lollygagger Kolsch and liked it.
• Speaking of beer, I commend to you the dedicated research and explication reflected in the "Beers of Coca-Cola Park" by fellow Triple-A blogger KramsKorner up Lehigh Valley way. If there's someone out there who'd like to take on the challenge of doing something like this for the DBAP, please let me know. But the bar has been set pretty high, I'd say.

Buschmann Rules

Season: 22-22; Trip: 3-4
Wrap, Box, RailRidersBlog

The Bulls pulled back up to .500 with their second win in a row, giving every appearance of coming out of their slump. But also give credit to Matt Buschmann for another superb outing (Game Score: 77).

I wasn’t listening, nor have I read any follow-up, but pulling Jordan Norberto after just two batters does not look good. Here’s hoping that he’s OK.

Meanwhile, a much-reduced player crew took the field and put together a three-run 5th inning that was enough to win the game.

Outside the game —

• By much reduced, I mean really much reduced. In the last few days three infielders have gone on the disabled list: Hak-Ju Lee, Vince Belnome, and Alexi Casilla. Leonardo Reginatto was called back from Montgomery and Tim Beckham is on his way, but the next couple of days are going to be tricky. As far as I can tell, today the Bulls have one player on the bench, whomever isn’t catching. Catcher Mayo Acosta is probably traveling with the team and could probably be activated, though.
• Pitcher  Enny Romero went to St. Petersburg, pitched three innings, and is coming back. Talk about a long walk from and to the bullpen! He did his job, but did walk in a run.
• To take his place, Bulls reliever Preston Guilmet was called up. He has 14 appearances in the majors, 4 in 2013 and 10 last year with Baltimore, so he’s been there before. Good luck!

My Last Game Score Chart

After two days of looking at Game Scores over time, what about individuals? Here’s the average game scores this season for Durham Bulls starters. It’s a pretty close match to our view of them measured by other stats. Beginning to think this may be a pretty useful for evaluating starters. Note that here in AAA not all starting pitchers are destined to remain starting pitchers. And a not-so-good sign for the Bulls is to note that #2 and #3 are on the 40-man and are already going back and forth to the Rays.

Update: Third Baseman Richie Shaffer called up from Montgomery Biscuits [stats]

A Win Against the RailRiders!

Season: 22-22; Trip: 2-4
Wrap, Box, Scranton Times-Tribune

Yes, this win was aided by the exceptional generosity of RailRiders pitchers and fielders (8 walks, 3 errors, 2 unearned runs), but you know what, the Bulls will probably be happy to take it. Over the last 10 games, the Bulls have lost 8, and 5 of those losses were to these RailRiders. It was nice to see the win.

I have mixed feelings about Everett Teaford. His ERA is up there at 5.50. His average Game Score (44) isn’t all that great. But he did a good job last night. Preston Guilmet got his first save of the year. He had 10 last year with the Norfolk Tides, so maybe we’ll see more of him in a closer role.

Mikie Mahtook went 1 for 5 last night with 3 K’s. He’s had 19 strikeouts in the last 10 games as his batting average has dropped down to .256. Worrisome.

But young Leonardo Reginatto is back and making the most of it, including a run scored and an RBI last night while batting in the 9 spot.

Outside the game —

• Vince Belnome was put on the disabled list yesterday, joining Hak-Ju Lee. That was the 59th transaction of the year.
• Alexi Casilla did not play last night.
• Two more games and the Bulls are back in town for 9 games over 11 days. Tomorrow’s game is their last game in the North Division in 2015. 
• An interesting analysis of the Tampa Bay region as a sports venue over at Rays Index. Attendance is a big issue down there. The implication is that the area has more sports than they can support. 
• Locally, however, we have one more baseball team, the Holly Springs Salamanders, a Coastal Plains League team playing in Holly Springs nice new park.

More on the Game Score stat —

Here’s the similar look at the Game Score stat I did yesterday, except for the Tampa Bay Rays. The circled data points are the anomalies — a below average GSc that the team won, above average GSc the team lost. What jumped out to me is how someone (hitters or relievers?) is not following up on good work by Jake Odorizzi. He had two terrific starts in the period (and one 49) and still the Rays lost the games.

click on chart for larger image

Walk-Off Losses; Rosterizing; and the Game Score Stat

Wrap, Box

The Rays don’t seem to know what they want Matt Andriese to become. He’s had 7 appearances with the Rays this year, three not-very-good starts and 4 relief appearances. With the Bulls he’s had a relief appearance and this start, which began well, but didn’t end all that great, followed by Jordan Norberto, who was awful.

Season: 21-22; Trip: 1-4
Wrap, Box, Scranton Times-Tribune

The Bulls then traveled to Moosic, Pennsylvania for a re-match against the RailRiders. Dylan Floro had a brilliant start, his best of the year, but Andrew Bellatti, just back from Tampa Bay couldn’t hang on.

Outside the game —

• Hak-Ju Lee has gone on the disabled list for an injury to his hand. I’ve missed all the details, but he was spiked on his glove hand and left the game Wednesday night.
• Leonardo Reginatto is back up from Montgomery and played last night.
• The team’s best hitter, Alexi Casilla, left game two on Tuesday evening and has not played since. First reported as a hamstring problem, but if someone’s got more current information, please add.
• Pitcher Everett Teaford went on the temporarily inactive list when Andrew Bellatti was added to the roster.

Game Score?

The Game Score stat and the importance of starting pitching.

I’ve been reading up on Bill James’ “Game Score” stat recently and tracking the Bulls (and the Rays) starting pitchers.

Game Score is a way of evaluating the performance of the starting pitcher. Overall the computation is pretty simple and fairly intuitive. And baseball seems to agree since it’s showing up in box scores.

Here’s how it’s calculated:

Start with 50 points. Add 1 point for each out recorded, (3 points per inning). Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4th. Add 1 point for each strikeout. Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed. Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed. Subtract 2 points for each unearned run allowed. Subtract 1 point for each walk.

And here’s one take on what it means (from the Wikipedia link):

The game score concept expands on Major League Baseball’s official definition of a “quality start”. MLB defines a quality start as six or more innings pitched while allowing three or fewer earned runs. The game score system defines a quality start as a game score above 50.
The advantage that the system has over the official definition is that it allows a statistician a better view of the degree of quality in a pitcher’s performance. Game scores can be quantified, and a pitcher’s performance tracked over time. It is also possible to compare different pitchers. If one averages a 60 and another averages 55, presumably the first pitcher has had a better season.

Does it pass the “so what?” test?

Maybe.

This chart shows the game scores of Bulls starting pitchers for the last 15 games. This has not been a good stretch for the Bulls, they’ve only won 4 games and they’ve lost 11. How does that track against starting pitcher performance? Pretty well. The circled scores are the only three anomalies of the 15. Otherwise it sure looks like an above average game score is associated with a team win (3 out of the 4 wins had above-50 game scores) and a low game score with a loss (9 out of 11 losses had below-50 scores). Please note that the wins and losses shown are team's wins and losses, not the pitcher's.

It sure looks like a good part of this recent tough run can be attributed to starting pitching.

click on chart for larger image

A Win and, How Bad is the DBAP Press Box?

Wrap, Box, Rochester Democrat & Chronicle

Wrap, Box

Season: 21-20; Trip: 1-2
Wrap, Box, Rochester Democrat & Chronicle

At last! A win. A bit ugly what with 3 errors and 12 runners left on base. But a win nonetheless with good jobs turned in by Enny Romero, Jhan Marinez (ERA 0.55 after 8 appearances and 16 innings!), and Ronald Belisario, who came into the game in the 8th with 1 out and runners on 1B and 2B and K’d the Red Wings out. A clean 9th inning got him his 7th save. New guy Preston Guilmet started the 8th and Jared Sandberg had had enough after 3 hits, two runs scored, and only one out.

Alexi Casilla left the game early on for an undisclosed (so far) reason. If anybody hears anything, please add to comments.

Outside the game —

In the “now it can be told” category.

First, let me point out that WDBB is not considered to be part of the "media" and we have never been in the press box or the broadcast booth (old or new) at the DBAP. Never thought to ask, to be honest. They might have let me in, but probably not now. And let me say that from where I sit, I have a hard time telling a curve from a slider from a changeup without checking the speed gun.

Now, on to the story …

I was watching the MiLB TV version of one of the games and listening to the Red Wings' broadcast team since the delay for Patrick Kinas was at least a minute or so and arrived well after the action on the screen. One of the broadcasters, whose name I didn’t catch, went into a fairly lengthy rant about the DBAP broadcast booth.

According to him, it's the worst in all of the International League. No other place in the IL puts the broadcasters where they can’t see the game! He likes the park, hates the booth. As we all know, the broadcasters are high up above first base, so they obviously don't have a very good angle to observe pitches. Nor can they see all of right field. And when the fans stand up, apparently their view is completely blocked. So the broadcasters end up calling the game from the video monitors.

I’ve wondered about that odd configuration myself. As we all can see, with the remodel came a club-like spot up above home plate, which must be really nice for the fans, but ... remember those scenes from “Bull Durham” where the broadcaster is essentially faking his calls?

Just how do folks way up above first base tell exactly where the ball crossed the plate?

And Today the Best Durham Bulls Hitter is ...

Alexi Casilla

This is our first look at the Durham Bulls hitters this year. It’s a bit early and the sample size is pretty small. But still worth a look, I thought. I used a cut off of 50 plate appearances before sorting the table.

This table is sorted by Weighted on Base Average (wOBA), which is one of those newish stats that makes a lot of sense once you dig into it. It essentially weights the various ways a batter can get on base. The explanation at the link might help. The second not-usual stat is Weighted Runs Above Average (wRAA). That stat compares the player to the rest of the league in terms of runs contributed.

The players marked by an asterisk are on the Tampa Bay Rays 40-man roster. The players marked with a strike-thru are players who have been with the Bulls and might be coming back before the year is out. Joey Butler went up to the Rays, Leonardo Reginatto went down to Montgomery.

To be honest, I was surprised to see Mr. Casilla come out on the top of the list. I think he’s a terrific second baseman, with a very accurate side-arm snap throw that rarely misses (only one error on the year). But I had not been paying attention to his bat. That could be because I usually undervalue switch hitters. But there he is with 31 hits (5 doubles, 3 home runs), 9 walks, and 14 RBI. At 38 games into the season he is the best of the bunch.

What about the players at the other end of the table? Two are catchers and they, mostly, don’t count. But Hak-Ju Lee and Alan Dykstra? Hard to say. Both are serious talents, neither is having a good year (and it’s been a long time since Lee had a good year).

Hitting coach Dave Myers needs to help these guys find some answers.

This table is a rough guide to what wOBA numbers mean.

Thrilling 9th

Season: 18-11; Trip: 1-0
Wrap, Box, Syracuse.com

Last night I was off having fun playing guitar in a group of friends, but my iPhone First Pitch app kept up with these annoying notifications telling me that the Bulls were losing, badly. The last time I looked the score was something like 6-1, so I stopped looking.

Then I got to my car, turned the radio on and discovered the Bulls were back in the chase after scoring a run in the 6th and three more in the 7th. I was home and had the computer fired up by the top of the 9th. There I saw Hak-Ju Lee single and steal a base, Taylor Motter get a walk, Alexi Casilla sacrifice them over to 2nd and 3rd, Eugenio Velez bring Lee home on a sac fly, and Corey Brown double in the go ahead run.

Then Andy Oliver got his first save opportunity and squeezed the thrills out it. After the first batter popped up, a single and a walk put men on 1B and 2B. Then Lee, playing shortstop, tried for a force out at 3B on a ground ball. Didn’t work. Bases loaded. One out. The heart-stopper was a line drive to third baseman Leonardo Reginatto. He grabbed the line drive, then tagged the base for an unassisted double play. Game over.

And so the Bulls have their fifth win in a row and added to their lead in the IL South. The relief corps has now gone eight games without letting a run across. That means that Matt Buschmann was charged with all 6 of last night’s runs, which didn’t do his ERA any good. And the 3 home runs by Syracuse ruined his FIP.

Rosterizing —

• After a grand total of 2 innings pitched in one game, Matt Andriese is headed for St. Petersburg, probably for a start opportunity. 
• Andrew Bellatti, who has had 5 appearances and doing very well, was added to the 40-man and called up. Congrats!
• Jake Elmore, last seen in a Bulls uniform on April 21, is on his way back. His playing time with the Rays was limited. Only 14 plate appearances in 7 games. But solid numbers: .308/.357/.973. Not sure why he’s coming back unless Nick Franklin has finished his rehab.

How about them Rays?

We don’t have a lot of Rays fans around here, but it’s fun to keep an eye on them and run at least a couple of the same charts we do for the Bulls. Here’s the games above/below .500 chart for the American League East. The Rays are doing pretty well and are staying in touch with the Yankees in spite of all the pitching injuries, flu, etc.

click on chart for larger image

Their runs scored minus runs allowed chart is less encouraging.

Bulls Sweep the Bisons

Season: 17-11; Home Stand: 3-0
Wrap, Box, Herald-Sun

Another noisy Education Day and some good baseball to be watched.

At first it seemed that the Bulls were going to run away with the game, especially after scoring two runs in the 1st inning and loading the bases with none out in the 2nd. However, the Bison’s Todd Redmond, who we have seen a lot over the years in various uniforms, struck out the side. Then the Bisons tied it up in the 3rd. Eventually, however, Redmond faltered and Belnome’s RBI of Lee in the 4th followed by Motter’s sac fly that brought Casilla home in the 6th were the difference.

All praise to the Bulls bullpen. They have not allowed a run in the last seven games.

We have to mention the deep confidence that Sandberg must have in Allan Dykstra. Dystra started at DH! Here’s a guy batting .000 since joining the Bulls. And he started out with a pop-up to 3B, a fly out to centerfield, and a ground out to 1B. In the end, however, he got his first hit of the year, a double  to left field in the 8th inning.

Hak-Ju Lee had a good day, three singles in 4 AB. Maybe ...

We should probably be a bit worried about both Mikie Mahtook and Taylor Motter, who collided in the outfield in the 3rd inning (Mahtook hung on to the ball, though). Both seemed banged up. Rob McLamb of the Herald-Sun has a bit more information, but not much more.

Outside the game —

• OK, let me rant about parking for day games. If you buy a season parking package, it turns out it doesn’t count for day games. One option is the parking garage over by the new county admin building. It has one of those automated deals where you put your ticket in and then your credit card. The machine spits back your ticket and your credit card gets charged for the parking. In this case $5. So far, so good. Here’s the fun part.
• It took me 30 minutes to get out of the garage and when I put my ticket in to get out of the gate, the machine wanted another $2.00 before it would let me go! Now there I was with a host of not happy folks behind me that were certainly not going to be understanding. So I put my credit card in and I was free. But I don’t think I’ll ever use that parking deck again, and I certainly can’t recommend it as a day game solution.
• Elsewhere, an interesting article in The Economist magazine on the statcast system being used to generate data for major league baseball.
• The Bulls are up in Syracuse for three games against the Chiefs.

Chart —

This chart tracks the game by game runs scored minus the runs allowed by the Durham Bulls. What does it mean? Other than the profound observation that it takes scoring more runs than your opponent to win a game? Not too much. However, it turns out that if you crank the data through a formula called the “Pythagorean Expectation” you can come up with numbers that very often matches the team’s won-loss record, which I find both very interesting and a bit creepy. If you crank the Bulls current runs scored and runs allowed through the equation you come up with a “PE” of 17-11, an exact match of their current won-loss record. How cool is that?

click on chart for larger image

Big Inning; Pitching Chart

Season: 12-9; Trip: 3-0
Wrap, Box, Morning Call

The Bulls play an early morning game today, at 10:35, and then move on to a 3-game set in Rhode Island before they come home. So far the trip has been a good one, including last night.

Last night was a game with a sudden dramatic series of events in the 4th inning and then a good job of keeping things on track. With two outs and two runners on Taylor Motter, Alexi Casilla, and Mikie Mahtook drove in five runs to put the game away.

Today's Chart - Bulls Pitching - ERA

This chart looks at the ERAs of Bulls pitchers. ERA (earned run average) is a stat that has gone out of fashion among the sabremetricians, and for a lot of good reasons. Our purposes, however are a bit different from most. What we’re interested in is team pitching performance and trends. For that purpose, the number of earned runs per nine innings — ERA — is a decent metric. We’ll chart a couple of others as the season goes along.

What we have here is the cumulative ERA of the team, the starters, and the relievers, over the last 15 games. That is, after each game we add up the total number of innings and earning runs and calculate the ERA. This is a very small sample size, so you can expect (and you can see) a good bit of variability this early in the season. But a few things are obvious, one being that the relief crew isn’t doing all that good a job at the moment. We should not put too much stock in that just yet because the sample size problem is even worse. Relievers have pitched 71 innings to the starters’ 112 ⅔. Note that the Bulls have had 17 different pitchers on the mound so far this year, ranging from Matt Buschmann’s 25 ⅔ innings to Jose Dominguez’s 2.

The team ERA of 3.09 ranks the Durham Bulls as 5th in the International League, below league-leading Buffalo’s 2.06 and well above the league-worst Louisville’s 4.93.

click on chart for larger image

Split, Bulls Hit the Road

Season: 9-9; Home Stand: 5-2
Wrap, Box 1, Box 2

A 5-2 home stand is a very good showing. Especially since we have to say that the weather was not good for baseball the entire time.

Alex Colome’s start in game 1 was very, very nice. Unlike some rehab experiences we’ve had over the years, this was a good one for the Bulls. Since the Bulls are off to Pennsylvania, my guess is that if Colome gets another rehab start before going back into the Rays rotation, it won’t be with the Bulls.

Meanwhile, Alexi Casilla had a terrific game with 3 hits (two doubles) and 2 RBI in the 7-inning game. The two that he got across with his double in the 6th turned out to be game winners. The other two RBI were from, who else, Mikie Mahtook. He’s having quite a year.

Have to mention Gwinnett’s young pitcher (at least I don’t have to try to guess how to pronounce his name), Mike Foltynewicz. He took the loss, but a guy who routinely chunks 97 mph fastballs is going to get some big league time. And he’s fun to watch.

Old-time Bulls fans would recognize the kind of shuffle in the lineup for the second game. We saw Vince Belnome, who has started at 1B almost every, if not all, games this season, playing third. Leonard Reginatto, who had played 3B since come up, was moved to 2B. J.P. Arencibia was at first. Taylor Motter (who is not having a very good year so far was in right.

Meanwhile, the one pitcher we Bulls fans would have chosen to come in the game in relief, had an awful night. Kirby Yates gave up three runs in just 2/3 of an inning and took the loss. All reports had been that the only reason Mr. Yates was back with the Bulls had to do with the Rays roster shuffling and his option status. I hope that’s the case. He’s only had three outings with the Bulls and, except for yesterday, he’s done well.

Not much to say about Bulls bats in the second game.

Outside the game —

• The Bulls are off for their first games outside the division. They start with the Phillies affiliate, the Lehigh Valley IronPigs, for four games, then over to Pawtucket, Rhode Island for three games with the Red Sox AAA team. 
• The ‘Pigs are off to a rough start at 5-13. They are followed by one of the rare fan blogs in minor league baseball. Kram has just put up his assessment of the pitching staff.
• A couple of places (e.g., here) are reporting that Alan Dykstra is on his way back to the Bulls. Guess we’ll have to see how that plays out. My initial report didn't not mention that he'd been designated for assignment which meant that might have been claimed by another team.

House of Durham Victorious!

Wool E. Bulls Arrives (check video board behind him)

Season: 7-8; Home Stand: 3-1
Wrap, Box

Wool E. Bull rode in on a horse and everyone had a great time to the sound of Game of Thrones music. A terrific GoT-themed video (see below) played a couple of times and every ballplayer was given a GoT-themed image for his at-bat. Good idea, hope the auction went well.

Meanwhile there was a lot to like and a lot that was worrisome about the game. Likes included Scott Diamond’s start and Andrew Bellatti’s first appearance as a reliever (he’s had two starts so far this year). I’m just guessing, but possibly Alex Colome’s rehab start allowed the Bulls to move Bellatti into the role he was hired for.

Likes also included a walk, two singles, a RBI, and decent 3B play by Leonardo Reginatto in his first AAA game; a breakout game at bat by Curt Casali with 3 singles, a walk and an RBI (more about that RBI later); and a home run by Alexi Casilla.

Worrisome aspects were the 14 men left on base; yet more errors leading to unearned runs; DH J.P. Arencibia’s 4 K’s; and the fact that only one of the first 24 batters got the ball out of the infield.

But we would not be doing our job if we didn’t point out the oddity of the game that led to the first Bulls score. Vince Belnome got to first base when Charlotte pitcher Erik Johnson botched a routine toss to 1B. He moved to 2B on a walk handed out to Joey Butler. After J.P. Arencibia K’d for the second out, Johnson got to a 3-2 count on Curt Casali. So the runners were going. Groans from our part of the stands as he hit a sky-high popup over the middle of the infield. Suddenly we were visited by a flashback to our little league days as the ball landed in the dead center of the pitcher’s mound with the pitcher, shortstop and first baseman all staring at as it rolled off. Meanwhile Belnome trotted on home.

Rosterization —

• Mikie Mahtook called up to the Rays (sigh). Bulls are one short at the moment. He did not play last night. The Rays have twelve players on some sort of disabled list, but that doesn’t count the four on the Bulls roster also on a disabled list. At least I don’t think it does.

Outside the Game —

• My blogging colleague over at Noise Nation (KramsKorner) who follows the Lehigh Valley IronPigs (Phillies), has put up a cautionary post I commend to all of you. Fortunately, no one reading this blog is likely to need the caution. None of us ever turn our backs to the game when someone’s at bat, do we?

Meanwhile, here’s the very cool Game of Thrones video that won’t mean a thing if you’ve never seen the show, but nice music anyhow.

Durham Bulls Open With a Win

Season: 1-0; Trip: 1-0
Wrap, Box, Gwinnett Daily Post

Nice start for the Bulls, especially the pitching. Young (24) Dylan Floro threw six innings of 1-hit, shutout ball in his first game in Triple A. Can’t ask for anything better than that. Brandon Gomes followed with two innings (and 3 Ks) and then José Dominguez closed it out. No walks at all. Plus the game wrapped up at 2 hours, 10 minutes. Looks like the speed-up rules might be making a difference.

Meanwhile Joey Butler got the only run of the game with his home run in the 2nd inning. Butler comes to the Bulls after a career mostly in the Texas system. [stats] Look to see him in the outfield and as a DH this year. With a lifetime AAA OPS of .872, he’s got some pop. Could be a fun guy to watch this year.

Catcher Luke Maile, who spent last year in Montgomery, showed off his arm by throwing out Gwinnett’s Eury Perez.

Overall, however, Gwinnett’s pitching kept the Bulls quiet. Only Butler and Vince Belnome had multi-hit games.

Outside the game —

• As mentioned yesterday, Allan Dykstra was called up to the Rays.
• The Rays signed Alexi Casilla and assigned him to the Bulls. The 30-year old Casilla spent most of last year with the Norfolk Tides as a middle infielder. He may join the team today.
• Missing will be outfielder Mikie Mahtook, who, as reported earlier this morning, will be in a Rays uniform tonight.