Capacity Crowd; Relievers Ragged

A, Mostly, Fun Fourth

Our Heaven Born BannerPatriotic print based on Frederic Edwin Church's small oil painting "Our Banner in the Sky"

Season: 43-39; Home Stand: 0-1
Wrap, Box, Herald-Sun

Yet another flurry of transactions led to right-hander Bradin Hagens starting the game in front of a record DBAP crowd. Hagins had a couple of starts at AAA last year in Reno for the Diamondback franchise. He was up from Montgomery a couple of weeks ago for a couple of innings in relief, then he went back. He did just fine (Game Score = 62). Plus he got home runs from Richie Shaffer, Taylor Motter, and J.P. Arencibia before he left the game after five innings.

After all our complaining about the starting pitching over the last few weeks it’s odd to be pointing out how poorly the bullpen did last night. After Hagens shut out the Tides for five innings, four relievers gave up five runs on 10 hits. In just one game the relievers’ ERA for the season went from 3.39 to 3.49, the worst it’s been since the very beginning of the year. Led off by José Dominguez, who gave up 2 runs in the 6th (and left two on base), each following pitcher gave up a run until in the 9th the winning run came across. Meanwhile the Bulls were baffled by a knuckleballer (Eddie Gamboa) and held runless for the rest of the game.

Too bad, because early in the game we were also treated to some wonderful defensive play including a 1B (Arencibia) to 3B (Shaffer) that cut down a lead runner in the 3rd; a perfect Maile to Franklin caught stealing; and near-perfect Boog Powell (left field) to Luke Maile at home. Unfortunately, the runner was in the way and he got nipped by the ball, so the throw ended up counting as an error (something not right about that, it seems).

Dylan Floro is up this afternoon. He has not done well in his last four games. Maybe today?

Rosterification —

The changes are just relentless. Just for the record

• The aforementioned Bradin Hagens is up from Montgomery.
• Pitcher Everett Teaford has gone to Tampa Bay
• Reliever Andy Oliver has opted out of his contract and gone for free agency. Decent job for the Bulls. 25 games, 28 innings, 5 holds, 1 save. He got the win over in Norfolk Friday. Maybe he wanted to go out on a high note? More likely watching all those guys going back and forth to St. Petersburg started working on his head.
• Jordan Norberto was moved to the “temporarily inactive” list. Have no idea what that means.
• C.J. Riefenhauser is on his way back from Tampa Bay
• Kirby Yates is back from Tampa Bay
• Infielder (1B) Marc Krause’s status was changed from being optioned to Durham to a Designated for Assignment, meaning he will come off the 40-man (and could possibly by claimed). That was to make room for Teaford.
• Reliever Ronald Belisario opted for free agency rather than come back to Durham.

Good Pitching & Hitting, Umpire Thins Out Opposition

Season: 39-27; Trip: 4-1
Wrap, Box

With last night’s win the Durham Bulls went 12 games above .500, the best so far this year. Mid-season is only 6 games away (AAA only plays 144 games) and we have to say that the team’s record is terrific.

One reason is that they are getting good pitching from odd places. Last night reliever Jordan Norberto got his second start in a row and lasted even longer than last time. He essentially set the stage for Jim Miller, who got a win even though his stint was not impressive. Then the new guys, Robert Zarate and Kyle Winkler, pitched one inning each of shut out ball and semi-new guy Preston Guilmet (he seems to spend a lot of time on the Rays-Bulls shuttle) got his second save.

Another reason is youngster Richie Shaffer is just pounding the ball. I saw his shot last night and he just crushed a ball in that oddly shaped stadium. At the DBAP it might have gone over the Bull.

Maybe, just maybe, Alan Dykstra is coming out of his season-long slump. He was 3 for 4 last night and made his way above the Mendoza Line to .210. And there’s Cory Brown, who was named the International League Hitter of the Week yesterday. He had a very timely triple in the 6th that won the game for the Bulls.

For oddity, how about this? The home plate umpire threw out three Indians last night, all for grousing about balls and strikes. First it was hitting coach Butch Wynegar in the 3rd. Then in the 9th it was catcher Tony Sanchez, followed by manager Dean Treanor. The Bulls have seen a lot of this particular umpiring crew, 16 games this season. Last night it was a four-man version. It strikes me as particularly stupid for a catcher to argue balls and strikes on the first game of a three-game series.

Rostering —

• Two Bulls pitchers had Jun 15th opt-out clauses in their contracts: Matt Buschmann and Ronald Belisario. Just what circumstances were involved in the clauses aren’t clear (typically assignment to the 25-man active squad). Nevertheless, according to Broadcaster Patrick Kinas, both have exercised their options. That means the Rays have 48 hours to do some kind of deal or both players are gone. No matter what happens, it would seem that neither player will be back in a Bulls uniform. Also according to Kinas, both players were still with the team last night as they wait for decisions down in St. Petersburg.
• Too bad for the Bulls. Buschmann was the front end and Belisario was the back end of quite a few Bulls wins this year. Belisario is probably the best closer in the International League and Buschmann, while he’s never made it to the major leagues, is certainly an above average pitcher.  
• Meanwhile, catcher Bobby Wilson, the Rays backup catcher all this year, has accepted an assignment to the Bulls and should show up in a couple of days. That could add a lot of experience and depth to the team. Stats.
• And then there’s Grady Sizemore, who was signed yesterday by the Rays. He’ll probably show up with the Bulls after spending some time with the Stone Crabs. Not sure about that one. Stats.
• Additional commentary here and here, 

How to Win a Marathon

Season: 35-26; Home Stand: 3-0
Wrap, Box, Herald-Sun

The finish of this longest game of the year (4:12) is well-covered at the links, including the heroics of infielder Leonardo Reginatto who now has a place in the 2015 Durham Bulls record books as a pitcher.

But how in the world did they get there when they had a 7-3 lead going into the 6th inning? Well, I’d like to blame the Tampa Bay Rays, who told the Bulls not to start Matt Andriese, so they had to go with Jordan Norberto who had never started a game in his professional career, and who was, by WDBB’s measures, the Bulls’ worst reliever. But Norberto got out of his 2+ innings in decent shape. The Rays also took away a reliever, Preston Guilmet, which came into play later on.

But we have to admit that the first big mistake was leaving generally superb reliever Jim Miller in the game with two outs in the 6th. Jared Sandberg was ready to take him out since he was over 50 pitches and C.J. Riefenhauser was ready to go. Sandberg, who seems to be quicker with the hook that Charlie Montoyo, even went out to the mound. But Miller apparently talked Sandberg out of pulling him. Didn’t work. The very next batter hit a home run and the IronPigs were then 4 runs back at 7-3. Riefenhauser came in to finish out the 6th.

Andy Oliver, not the Bulls’ best reliever, but not the worst either, came on in the 8th, struck out a batter, then loaded the bases with three quick walks. The last man standing in the Bulls’ bullpen was closer Ronald Belisario. Yes, it was true that this would be his 12th appearance in the last 21 Bulls’ games, but that’s what closers do, right? This was to be, however, a 5-out save and Belisaro had only attempted that twice before this year: one save and one loss. On the other hand, the Bulls really did not have a choice in the matter. The bullpen was empty.

A run scored on an infield out at first and the next batter flied out. The Bulls got the run back on a Reginatto double in the bottom of the inning, so they went into the 9th with a comfortable 3-run lead. After all, Belisario does lead the IL in saves.

A walk, a single, and a home run (by former Bull Russ Canzler), and the game was tied. The marathon began. Young Brazilian infielder Reginatto kept the Bulls in the game until the IronPigs pitching faded in the bottom of the 12th. Note that the rules of the game meant Reginatto also had to keep on coming to bat, which he did in the 12th. He was hit by a pitch and was on 2nd base when Taylor Motter’s home run brought home Hak-Ju Lee to win the game.

Outside the game —

• As mentioned, Preston Guilmet has been called up. Enny Romero is coming back. Kirby Yates was taken off his rehab status and is coming on to the Bulls roster.

In the wings —

• According to the Tampa Tribune’s Roger Mooney, Matt Moore will have a rehab start with the Durham Bulls on June 18. That would be their first home game after the Bulls get back from their current trip.

The Bulls are now alone in first place in the International League South Division.

Damp Time at the Park

 

Craig Robinson, of FlipFlopFlyBall, "Ballpark on Stilts"

Season: 30-24; Home Stand: 6-2
Box, Wrap, Herald-Sun

Matt Buschmann had his not-quite-worst outing of the season (worst would have been back on May 8th up in Syracuse). And the Bulls never quite got on track. Also to be noted was his his recent tendency (four in the his last two games) to hit guys. Last night the rain was certainly having its effect on his footing and his grip on the ball, though.

Seeking just a little bit of light, we have to note that this was the first time in his last 5 appearances that Jordan Norberto didn’t allow a run, and his first two-inning stint since April 22. Not much effect on his pretty awful numbers, but maybe ...

Meanwhile, "Please stop the rain ..."

Outside the game —

• Everett Teaford is back from Montgomery. Assume that he will go into the rotation.
• George Habel, Bulls front office exec, has been writing about the food choices at the DBAP.
• FlipFlopFlyBall is the website of artist and baseball obsessed infographics guy Craig Robinson. His drawing/painting above is part of a series putting ballparks in interesting places. Also note the Bull on his homepage. He has very graciously allowed WDBB to use a couple of his images this year. Please don't reuse them without his permission.

In the wings —

• Rehabbing Rays pitcher (and former Durham Bull) Matt Moore, 2.1 innings with Charlotte Stone Crabs. Box. Claw Digest.

Bulls Win; Nice to See Joe Dillon Back

Dan Johnson, Joe Dillon, Jose Lobaton
Walking back to dugout after a Lobaton home run
July 5, 2010

Season: 28-23; Home Stand: 4-1
Wrap, Box, Herald-Sun, Rays Colored Glasses

What a terrific home stand this is becoming for us fans. Big crowds. Interesting baseball. And a bunch of wins. Plus we have 4 more games to go. Life is good!

Very pleased to see our favorite 2015 Bull, Alexi Casilla, back in the game after some time on the disabled list. Slightly annoyed that WDBB is the only place that recognizes that he’s the best hitter on the team. But maybe they’ll come around.

Ryan Brett DH’d and led off with a home run his first at bat. Things were quiet until the 5th when Richie Shaffer, whose bat had been quiet since his fabulous first game with the Bulls, poked one over the Blue Monster. Unfortunately, a Shaffer error and a single took starter Scott Diamond out of the game. An unimpressive José Dominguez gave up a single and then walked in a run, bringing up some bad memories of all the runs the Chiefs had given the Bulls on Friday night. He got out of the inning, however, with a strikeout and a popup, leaving the bases loaded.

The Rays/Bulls are certainly being cautious with Mr. Dominguez. Since coming off the DL he’s only had 5 appearances, none of them particularly successful.

Jordan Norberto came on for the 7th and it got a bit ugly after two outs. Two singles and Jared Sandberg was quick with the hook, giving the ball to the spectacular young Jhan Mariñez. But Mariñez’ last outing was a one-out save on May 24th. It took him two batters to shake the rust off. First he hit a batter to load the bases, then he walked in the Chief’s second run. He got a ground out and then struck out the side in the 8th. But the game was tied.

It got very interesting in the 8th. Alexi Casilla grounded out. Ryan Brett singled off the pitcher’s glove and Taylor Motter singled to right. Mikie Mahtook struck out and Alan Dykstra came to bat.

When Mahtook came to bat, broadcaster Patrick Kinas began a lengthy exposition on the positioning of Chief’s center fielder Darin Mastroianni, pointing out how shallow he was and that, especially after Mahtook’s K, it didn’t make any sense to play that shallow. Essentially, and I’m sure he has made all his colleagues in the booth aware of it, he called the shot for Dykstra. Dykstra put the 5th pitch he saw over Mastroianni’s head, both runners scored, and the Bulls were up 4-2.

Ronald Belisario, in the grand tradition of Bulls’ closers, gave us some thrills in the 9th. He gave up two singles before Alexi Casilla started one double play, then made a very pretty grab and throw for the third out. It was his 12th save, which ranks him #2 in the International League.

Outside the game —

• About that photo up top. Joe Dillon was one of my favorite Durham Bulls back in 2009 and 2010. What I admired about him in those years was how hard he worked and how much he seemed to love the game. What I like about that photo is how looks to me so much like three guys on their way home from work. The photo says to me, “We’re baseball players, this is what we do.” You can see him tonight, probably out at third base when the Chiefs are at bat. He’s their hitting coach. Nice to see him back at the DBAP.
• When Alexi Casilla came off the DL somebody had to go. After 4 games with the Bulls, Juniel Querecuto went back to the Charlotte Stone Crabs. 
• Tampa Bay Rays infielder Tim Beckham tweaked a hamstring in last night's game in Baltimore. If serious, we can expect ripple effects down here.

Buschmann Rules

Season: 22-22; Trip: 3-4
Wrap, Box, RailRidersBlog

The Bulls pulled back up to .500 with their second win in a row, giving every appearance of coming out of their slump. But also give credit to Matt Buschmann for another superb outing (Game Score: 77).

I wasn’t listening, nor have I read any follow-up, but pulling Jordan Norberto after just two batters does not look good. Here’s hoping that he’s OK.

Meanwhile, a much-reduced player crew took the field and put together a three-run 5th inning that was enough to win the game.

Outside the game —

• By much reduced, I mean really much reduced. In the last few days three infielders have gone on the disabled list: Hak-Ju Lee, Vince Belnome, and Alexi Casilla. Leonardo Reginatto was called back from Montgomery and Tim Beckham is on his way, but the next couple of days are going to be tricky. As far as I can tell, today the Bulls have one player on the bench, whomever isn’t catching. Catcher Mayo Acosta is probably traveling with the team and could probably be activated, though.
• Pitcher  Enny Romero went to St. Petersburg, pitched three innings, and is coming back. Talk about a long walk from and to the bullpen! He did his job, but did walk in a run.
• To take his place, Bulls reliever Preston Guilmet was called up. He has 14 appearances in the majors, 4 in 2013 and 10 last year with Baltimore, so he’s been there before. Good luck!

My Last Game Score Chart

After two days of looking at Game Scores over time, what about individuals? Here’s the average game scores this season for Durham Bulls starters. It’s a pretty close match to our view of them measured by other stats. Beginning to think this may be a pretty useful for evaluating starters. Note that here in AAA not all starting pitchers are destined to remain starting pitchers. And a not-so-good sign for the Bulls is to note that #2 and #3 are on the 40-man and are already going back and forth to the Rays.

Update: Third Baseman Richie Shaffer called up from Montgomery Biscuits [stats]

Walk-Off Losses; Rosterizing; and the Game Score Stat

Wrap, Box

The Rays don’t seem to know what they want Matt Andriese to become. He’s had 7 appearances with the Rays this year, three not-very-good starts and 4 relief appearances. With the Bulls he’s had a relief appearance and this start, which began well, but didn’t end all that great, followed by Jordan Norberto, who was awful.

Season: 21-22; Trip: 1-4
Wrap, Box, Scranton Times-Tribune

The Bulls then traveled to Moosic, Pennsylvania for a re-match against the RailRiders. Dylan Floro had a brilliant start, his best of the year, but Andrew Bellatti, just back from Tampa Bay couldn’t hang on.

Outside the game —

• Hak-Ju Lee has gone on the disabled list for an injury to his hand. I’ve missed all the details, but he was spiked on his glove hand and left the game Wednesday night.
• Leonardo Reginatto is back up from Montgomery and played last night.
• The team’s best hitter, Alexi Casilla, left game two on Tuesday evening and has not played since. First reported as a hamstring problem, but if someone’s got more current information, please add.
• Pitcher Everett Teaford went on the temporarily inactive list when Andrew Bellatti was added to the roster.

Game Score?

The Game Score stat and the importance of starting pitching.

I’ve been reading up on Bill James’ “Game Score” stat recently and tracking the Bulls (and the Rays) starting pitchers.

Game Score is a way of evaluating the performance of the starting pitcher. Overall the computation is pretty simple and fairly intuitive. And baseball seems to agree since it’s showing up in box scores.

Here’s how it’s calculated:

Start with 50 points. Add 1 point for each out recorded, (3 points per inning). Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4th. Add 1 point for each strikeout. Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed. Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed. Subtract 2 points for each unearned run allowed. Subtract 1 point for each walk.

And here’s one take on what it means (from the Wikipedia link):

The game score concept expands on Major League Baseball’s official definition of a “quality start”. MLB defines a quality start as six or more innings pitched while allowing three or fewer earned runs. The game score system defines a quality start as a game score above 50.
The advantage that the system has over the official definition is that it allows a statistician a better view of the degree of quality in a pitcher’s performance. Game scores can be quantified, and a pitcher’s performance tracked over time. It is also possible to compare different pitchers. If one averages a 60 and another averages 55, presumably the first pitcher has had a better season.

Does it pass the “so what?” test?

Maybe.

This chart shows the game scores of Bulls starting pitchers for the last 15 games. This has not been a good stretch for the Bulls, they’ve only won 4 games and they’ve lost 11. How does that track against starting pitcher performance? Pretty well. The circled scores are the only three anomalies of the 15. Otherwise it sure looks like an above average game score is associated with a team win (3 out of the 4 wins had above-50 game scores) and a low game score with a loss (9 out of 11 losses had below-50 scores). Please note that the wins and losses shown are team's wins and losses, not the pitcher's.

It sure looks like a good part of this recent tough run can be attributed to starting pitching.

click on chart for larger image

Big Crowds; Big Losses

Season: 20-18; Home Stand: 0-4
Wrap, Box, Herald-Sun

This may have been the worst Durham Bulls home stand in my memory. Fortunately, also one of the shortest.

After playing to virtually empty stands in Buffalo and Syracuse, the Bulls did not reward the 38,503 fans who came out to the DBAP over the last 4 days. Instead, Bulls pitchers served up 5 home runs and 12 doubles among the 53 hits and 26 runs scored.

Meanwhile, Bulls hitters managed just 29 hits, with 3 doubles and 2 home runs, and scored only 8 runs.

A few years ago during a hitting drought a rumor circulated that Bulls hitters had taken their bats down to that open area behind the gate in right field and built a bonfire with them. Time to do that again?

In an effort to find at least some light, let me mention the return of José Dominguez, who had a nice inning; and the nice work of Jordan Norberto and Andy Oliver, who kept things from being even worse.

Matchup

The Bulls hit the road for four games in three days in Rochester, then meet the RailRiders on their home turf for four games, then they are back a week from today, hoping the ACC teams have not torn up the ragged-looking DBAP turf too much.

The Twins’ AAA team, the Rochester Red Wings lead the league in batting average and are second in OPS, so they are going to be a challenge to Bulls pitching. Then there’s the oddity of a scheduled double header on Tuesday. Not sure why/how that happened, but that is going to be a real stretch for the bullpen. I don’t think any of our current Bulls position players have any pitching experience, but I think that Mayo Acosta is still traveling with the team and he’s got 3 innings under his belt last year.

Rough Night at the DBAP

Season: 20-15; Home Stand: 0-1
Wrap, Box, Herald-Sun

On my scorecard I’d circled the bases-loaded end of the Bulls’ 1st inning and base-loaded end of 2nd inning and made a note to myself, “That doesn’t look good.” In the end, it didn’t matter. In the RailRiders’ 5th a flurry of “ground balls with eyes" pretty much ripped up my scoresheet. And then the was the 9, count ‘em, 9 walks by the relief corps (10 walks on the night, the worst performance this year). Aaaaaargh! Go home. Tomorrow’s another day.

There’s something not right about Jordan Norberto. In his last two appearances he’s gone 2.1 innings, given up 6 hits, 8 walks, 4 earned runs on a lot of pitches (89). He did escape the 5th after walking the bases loaded. But the 6th was simply awful and painful to watch (I left near the end of it): single, single, single (run scores), walk, ground out (run scores), fly out, walk, walk (run scores). Bryce Stowell comes in.
But, even Stowell, a very reliable guy, gave up four walks and a run.

Ah, but today’s another day.

Outside the game —

• Regular television broadcasts start today. For the rest of the season’s home games you will be able to watch the superb Explorer Post 50 crew’s work. Time Warner Cable 323 or 1250. Over the air 50.2. Details and schedule here.
• The Herald-Sun is reporting that Jake McGee has finished his rehab and is going back to the Rays. And that Matt Andriese is coming back to the Bulls. I find Andriese’s return a bit odd since he picked up a 4-inning save against the Yankees last night.
• In the same article rehabbing Nick Franklin states that he thinks he’s ready to go back.

Hitting

When we looked at hitting a couple of weeks ago, the hitters were on a slight upward trend. Not so at the moment. The last four games have been well below average. The quirk is that the hitters’ worst game (May 13) was a win.

This charts the team OPS (on base percentage + slugging) for each of last 15 games. The blue line is the average OPS for international league teams over the last three years. The trend line is a five-game moving average.

click chart for larger view
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