Bulls Hitters at Mid-Season

We last looked at the Durham Bulls hitters as of May 17th. Now we are only two games from the Bulls’ mid-season. So how are hitters doing?

[Note: We used a cutoff of 50 plate appearances to generate our list. Players below the 50 plate appearance cutoff were Bobby Wilson, Juniel Querecuto, Mayo Acosta, and Nick Franklin]

This table is sorted by Weighted on Base Average (wOBA), which is one of those newish stats that makes a lot of sense once you dig into it. It essentially weights the various ways a batter can get on base. The explanation at the link might help. The second not-usual stat is Weighted Runs Above Average (wRAA). That stat compares the player to the rest of the league in terms of runs contributed.

The players marked by an asterisk are on the Tampa Bay Rays 40-man roster. The players marked with a strike-thru are players who have been with the Bulls and might be coming back before the year is out. Butler went up to the Rays and hasn’t come back yet (and is doing so well that he might not). Curt Casali and Jake Elmore went up, Reginatto came back up from Montgomery and was just sent back down.

Richard Shaffer is new to the Bulls and has the least number of plate appearances of the group. But his numbers are superb. Alexi Casilla remains very high, but he has spent a lot of time on the DL in the last month, as shown by his relatively low plate appearances. Deserving of special mention is the exceptional year that Taylor Motter is having.

The last column in the table is the change in wOBA since the May 17th. The best performances are of  Alan Dykstra and Corey Brown, both of them going from negative wRAAs to positive.

I was surprised at J.P. Arencibia’s numbers. Subjectively, I thought he was doing better than that. I remain very worried about the season that Mikie Mahtook, Vince Belnome, and Hak-Ju Lee are having (as are they, I am sure).

Name	Age	PA	AVG	OPS	wOBA	wRAA	Change
Richard Shaffer	24	82	.300	1.090	.484	9.6	NA
*Joey Butler	29	94	.317	.892	.414	6.2	NA
Alexi Casilla	30	134	.328	.865	.399	7.4	-.018
*Jake Elmore	28	110	.326	.814	.395	5.8	.025
Taylor Motter	25	285	.291	.759	.349	5.4	.008
Corey Brown	29	222	.236	.759	.347	3.9	.035
Allan Dykstra	28	159	.214	.712	.344	2.5	.063
Eugenio Velez	33	222	.276	.711	.335	2.0	-.006
*Curt Casali	26	132	.205	.674	.325	0.2	.039
J.P. Arencibia	29	206	.230	.701	.320	-0.4	-.039
*Mikie Mahtook	25	198	.239	.647	.302	-3.1	-.040
Leonardo Reginatto	25	134	.269	.606	.284	-3.8	-.031
Luke Maile	24	173	.200	.574	.281	-5.3	.018
Vince Belnome	27	162	.180	.554	.278	-5.3	-.021
*Hak-ju Lee	24	178	.235	.588	.275	-6.2	.019
*Ryan Brett	23	122	.205	.558	.262	-5.4	NA

What wOBA Means

wOBA
Excellent	.400
Great	.370
Above Average	.340
Average	.320
Below Average	.310
Poor	.300
Awful	.290

Mystery Pitchers; Bad Luck Ending

Season: 39-31; Home Stand: 0-3
Wrap, Box, Herald-Sun

Starting pitcher last night was Robert Zarate. He did 4 innings. He was followed by Bradin Hagens for 3 innings. Who? Followed by whom?

Welcome to the 2015 Durham Bulls! Even with the diligent efforts of the front office, even with a program, it’s hard to keep track of the players on this year’s team. For that matter, even if you wear your radio at the park, sometimes they don’t know much about the players. So you just have to kind of figure it out on your own.

Zarate showed up a few days ago and pitched in relief in a couple of road games. Not much history available. Stats. But he looked pretty darned good last night. He only let one run in on his 61 pitches, several of which were in the high 90’s. I think he’s going to be fun to watch. He left with the game tied at 1-1.

Bradin Hagens just came up from Montgomery, where he was doing OK. Stats. He also did just fine. When he left the game was 2-2.

So it looks like the Rays have not done the Bulls too much harm in this round of moves.

Can’t say as much about this umpiring crew. So far they’ve called 10 Bulls games this year and they are not the best of the bunch. But it was a hot night and maybe, just maybe, the home plate ump could justify what was a bit of exuberant bat-tossing by both teams that led to two ejections. On the other hand, they really did miss the call on Cory Brown at second base and that really did make a difference.

Meanwhile, a bit of tactical trivia that also made a difference. Bulls managers have historically been very reluctant to call for intentional bases on balls. So far in 2015 manager Jared Sandberg has only asked for 6 in four games. The Bulls lost every one of those games.

Take last night. Top of the 10th. Game tied. Runner on second base. No outs. Jhan Marinez K’d a batter. Got a ground out (runner went  to 3B). Then told to intentionally walk Columbus’ Jesus Aguilar, who had 2 hits and 2 K’s on the night. Next batter hit a home run and Clippers were ahead 5-2.

The Bulls could not catch up. However, Third Baseman J.P. Arencibia hit his 11th home run and the Bulls did get within reach. Note: Vince Belnome started at 3B, but got thrown out of the game for throwing his bat after a called third strike in the 5th.

Outside the game —

• Former Bull, and Tampa Bay ace, Matt Moore is scheduled to start this afternoon. High hopes that he does well down in the bay area. Here too. Possibly the best pitcher we’ve had the opportunity to see here.

In the Wings —

• Over with the Montgomery Biscuits, Leonardo Reginatto started at 3B, then shifted over to pitch in the 15th(!) inning. He gave up a home run in a 1-0 loss. Juniel Querecuto was 0 for 5 at shortstop. Bryce Stowell pitched the 13th and 14th innings. Box. 

Standings

With the loss, the Charlotte Knights moved ahead of the Bulls in the International League South Division. This is a very competitive bunch of teams this year.

There're Holes in Our Bats,

Dear Wool E, Dear Wool E.
There're holes in our bats,
Dear Wool E., some holes.
(apologies to Harry Belafonte...)

Season: 30-30; Home Stand: 2-0
Wrap, Box, Herald-Sun

Bulls hitters struck out 18 times last night, setting a season record. Usually dangerous Cory Brown led the pack with 4. Probably some sort of hex for being the first Bull to be named hitter of the week this year. New catcher Bobby Wilson was in the lineup and got one of the Bulls 4 hits.

What about the pitching? Really not all that bad, except for Andy Oliver in the 8th. In that inning he gave up just one single and then struck out the three remaining batters. Problem was that the guy who singled was wild pitched completely around the bases! So he took an earned run on his outing.

The Herald-Sun reported that manager Jared Sandberg was ejected from the game, but it doesn’t show up in the box score, so not entirely sure that the Herald-Sun got it right.

Rosterification (Are you tired of trying to keep track? So am I) —

• Pitcher C.J. Riefenhauser is back from Tampa Bay
• Infielder Alexi Casilla came off the DL and played second base last night.
• Infielder Leonardo Reginatto was sent to Montgomery (where he hit a triple and a home run last night).
• Pitcher Kyle Winkler was sent to Montgomery

Outside the game —

• Montgomery Biscuits blogger “Dr. Miraculous” is not happy with the way the Tampa Bay Rays treat his team. Interesting read. 
• Groundsman Scott Strickland tweeted a terrific photo from the night before last. Thrilling moment.

Last nights storms were pretty solid... pic.twitter.com/Agd9Lxyxow

— Scott Strickland (@DurhamBullsTurf) June 19, 2015

Before the Rain

Season: 39-29; Home Stand: 0-1
Wrap, Box, Herald-Sun

According to Brook Pryor over at the Herald-Sun, Dylan Floro’s problem was that his two-seam fastball wasn’t working and he didn’t switch to his four-seamer soon enough. Well, something sure happened in the first two innings and that makes as good a sense as anything else. In the meantime, Columbus’ Michael Roth was doing a very good job of keeping the Bulls in check.

One of those games where it was OK to see the storm coming.

New to me was to see manager Sandberg staying in the dugout when the Bulls were at bat. Hitting coach Dave Myers took 3B and infielder Vince Belnome took 1B.

Roster summary —

• Matt Buschmann took his opt out and we have not heard if he has signed with anyone else yet.
• Ronald Belisario got added to the Tampa Bay roster.
• Catcher Bobby Wilson “accepted the assignment” from the Rays to the Bulls. Saw him in the dugout last night.
• Catcher Mayo Acosta was taken off the roster, but was seen in the bullpen.
• Pitcher Ernesto Frieri, who’d been sent down from Tampa Bay, is on the disabled list.
• Pitcher Bradin Hagens was called up from the Biscuits. He’s got some interesting stats. No word on whether he is to be a starter or reliever. He’s done both at Montgomery this year.

Good Pitching & Hitting, Umpire Thins Out Opposition

Season: 39-27; Trip: 4-1
Wrap, Box

With last night’s win the Durham Bulls went 12 games above .500, the best so far this year. Mid-season is only 6 games away (AAA only plays 144 games) and we have to say that the team’s record is terrific.

One reason is that they are getting good pitching from odd places. Last night reliever Jordan Norberto got his second start in a row and lasted even longer than last time. He essentially set the stage for Jim Miller, who got a win even though his stint was not impressive. Then the new guys, Robert Zarate and Kyle Winkler, pitched one inning each of shut out ball and semi-new guy Preston Guilmet (he seems to spend a lot of time on the Rays-Bulls shuttle) got his second save.

Another reason is youngster Richie Shaffer is just pounding the ball. I saw his shot last night and he just crushed a ball in that oddly shaped stadium. At the DBAP it might have gone over the Bull.

Maybe, just maybe, Alan Dykstra is coming out of his season-long slump. He was 3 for 4 last night and made his way above the Mendoza Line to .210. And there’s Cory Brown, who was named the International League Hitter of the Week yesterday. He had a very timely triple in the 6th that won the game for the Bulls.

For oddity, how about this? The home plate umpire threw out three Indians last night, all for grousing about balls and strikes. First it was hitting coach Butch Wynegar in the 3rd. Then in the 9th it was catcher Tony Sanchez, followed by manager Dean Treanor. The Bulls have seen a lot of this particular umpiring crew, 16 games this season. Last night it was a four-man version. It strikes me as particularly stupid for a catcher to argue balls and strikes on the first game of a three-game series.

Rostering —

• Two Bulls pitchers had Jun 15th opt-out clauses in their contracts: Matt Buschmann and Ronald Belisario. Just what circumstances were involved in the clauses aren’t clear (typically assignment to the 25-man active squad). Nevertheless, according to Broadcaster Patrick Kinas, both have exercised their options. That means the Rays have 48 hours to do some kind of deal or both players are gone. No matter what happens, it would seem that neither player will be back in a Bulls uniform. Also according to Kinas, both players were still with the team last night as they wait for decisions down in St. Petersburg.
• Too bad for the Bulls. Buschmann was the front end and Belisario was the back end of quite a few Bulls wins this year. Belisario is probably the best closer in the International League and Buschmann, while he’s never made it to the major leagues, is certainly an above average pitcher.  
• Meanwhile, catcher Bobby Wilson, the Rays backup catcher all this year, has accepted an assignment to the Bulls and should show up in a couple of days. That could add a lot of experience and depth to the team. Stats.
• And then there’s Grady Sizemore, who was signed yesterday by the Rays. He’ll probably show up with the Bulls after spending some time with the Stone Crabs. Not sure about that one. Stats.
• Additional commentary here and here, 

Bye Bats; Hello Indians

Wrap, Box, Louisville Courier-Journal

Richie Shaffer got three home runs in a game where both teams beat up on each other.

Wrap, Box

First loss after a 6-game winning streak. Mikie Mahtook back in the lineup. See that J.P. Arencibia put on catcher’s gear for the first time in a long while for top of the 9th. Wonder if he’s been carrying his mitt around with him all year?

Unusually poor outing by Matt Buschmann

Season: 38-27; Trip: 3-1
Wrap, Box, Louisville Courier Journal

The basic take on the game by the Bats’ manager, Delino DeShields, was, “We wuz robbed!” Seems like a foul ball in the 9th should have been fair (in his view). And that would have led to a Bats win. Then he goes on to complain about the whole series. I wonder if the same umpiring crew is going to be in Louisville for a couple of days?

But the Bulls did get 3 out of 4 on the road. Pretty darn good, especially with the turnover and turmoil.

Scott Diamond got his seventh win. Kirby Yates got his first K since coming off of rehab. Mikie Mahtook, Richie Shaffer, and Luke Maile got the RBIs.

Outside the game —

• According to the radio, this was the last game as a Bull for Ronald Belisario. He has an opt-out contract and the guessing is that he’s going to execute it unless the Rays call him up. He has been huge help to the Bulls with 17 saves over 27 appearances, 30+ innings, two losses and a blown save (all when his pitch count got up). A decent WHIP of 1.22. Out of 11 runners he inherited, only one of them scored! Good luck!
• To my great surprise, the local N&O actually had some Durham Bulls coverage. Two feature articles by Nick Gray. One is about the increasing use of shifts in AAA ball and interviews Bull Alan Dykstra on their effect on his hitting. The second is about the Bulls new star Richie Shaffer. Good reporting. Nice to see some coverage.
• Ballpark Digest is conducting some sort of poll on favorite ballparks. The DBAP is still in the running.

Matchup

The Bulls roll up the road to Indianapolis to face what could be their toughest out-of-division opponent this year. The Triple-A club of the Pittsburgh Pirates, the Indianapolis Indians are 6 ½ games ahead in the International League North Division. The have an edge on the Bulls in most statistical categories; have won 9 of their last 10 games; and just won 3 out of 4 against the Gwinnett Braves.

The only statistical flaw that jumps out is that their run differential is awfully low for their won-loss record. In fact, if you crank it through the Pythagorean Expectation (PE) equation their won-loss record “should” be just 36-29. That is, they should have lost 5 more games than they have. Typically two explanations are given for these oddities: luck and relief pitching. We will have to see. Over the course of a season, the PE come spookily close to matching the actual won-loss.

[Note: the Bulls’ PE is also anomalous. Won-loss “should” be 35-30. That is, they should have lost 3 more games than they have.]

Rays' Memo to Sandberg: Toss Lineup Card in Shredder

From this distance it would seem that the Tampa Bay Rays need to do a few things:

1. Fire their training crew and get some folks in that can keep pitchers healthy;
2. Lease a jet to shuttle guys around from place to place; maybe one of those Russian monster transports so they could put a bullpen inside to warm guys up while moving around;
3. Or both of the above.

Here we go, not necessarily in order:

• Andrew Bellatti, with Rays, got broken and went on the DL
• Preston Guilmet, who pitched for the Rays last night, is coming back
• Matt Andriese, who was scheduled to start in Louisville tonight, may start for the Rays instead, here’s hoping they don’t break him, too
• Enny Romero, who may not have ever made it back into a Bulls uniform will be back with the Rays.
• C.J. Riefenhauser has been called up.
• Rays catcher Bobby Wilson was designated for assignment
• Bulls catcher, Curt Casali, likely to be called up.
• Bulls infielder Alexi Casilla went back on the DL with, I think, a hamstring issue.
• Bulls infielder/DH Vince Belnome came off the DL and was the DH last night.

Commentary on the transactions at various locations. Tampa Tribune, Rays Colored Glasses, The Process Report, Rays Index.

Will there be some backfill for the Bulls? Probably. In time to find a starter for tonight? Who knows?

Here’s best wishes to Curt Casali. He has had limited playing time this year and this may be his chance. Guess that Mayo Acosta will be filling in for a while.