Thursday, June 14, 2012

Some Numbers

Time to look again at how the Bulls are doing in the runs scored, runs allowed category. This curve is not very attractive. The Bulls have allowed some 90 more runs than they have scored.

The good news? Well, if you crank these numbers through the Pythagorean Expectation formula the result is that the Bulls should be doing even worse. The current won-lost record for the Bulls is 28-39, 11 games below .500. Using the PE formula, the Bulls should be at 24-43, or 19 games below .500. In general, departures from the expectation are attributed to luck and relief pitching. I’d think the Bulls have had contributions from both. [Note: the trend is a 10-game moving average]

click on chart for larger view

Moving on to our “Road to .500” chart, things are also not looking good. Before the Bulls came home it seemed like they had a good shot at moving right up this path to .500 or maybe even doing better. But now they’ve got to win 44 of the next 77 games to have a 50/50 season. That is, they’ve got to play .570 ball to get to .500 on the season. Tough to do.

Lastly, a look at the South Division of the International League, as plotted by games above/below .500. The remarkable run of the Charlotte Knights and the striking fall the Gwinnett Braves are the major features of this chart.

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