Thursday, May 7, 2009


click on chart to see larger size

We’re just past five rotations so time to update my charts. I’ve included yesterday’s 8-7 win at Charlotte.

The good news about the performance chart is that the trends for both hitting and pitching are improving.

I’ve plotted ERA points to the pitching chart along with the On Base Average (the opponent’s on base percentage) numbers. Interesting to note that all the starters’ (Talbot thru Houser) OBAs are above the team average, so the relievers are still carrying the water for the Bulls. The biggest changes were in the numbers for Childers and Orvella. Almost all of that can be attributed to that awful 1-14 loss to Columbus back on the first of May. Have to think that Montoyo left both of them twisting in the wind since there was little hope to catch up, and they both got hammered. Another interesting number is Choate’s thirteen appearances! That’s half of our games so far. Tough guy!

The last chart is the cumulative runs for and against the Bulls this year (and the plots for the last two years as well). As can be seen, we’re doing a good bit better so far this year than in previous years. Most of the time this plot is spookily similar to a plot of above/below .500. At the moment it isn’t (we’re 5 games above .500). Hard to say just why, but my best guess is that, as a team, we’re committing fewer mistakes than our opponents. By mistakes I mean events such as errors, wild pitches, passed balls, and stolen bases. Not completely sure of that since I’m too lazy to chase those numbers down. Important, however, is the trend, which has just ticked upwards.

By the way, an interesting interview with Manager Charlie Montoyo after the recent home stand.


  1. FYI...Bulls have committed 19 errors to their opponents 11. They have 16 stolen bases to their opponents 20.

  2. Thanks. Implies that my guess above was wrong, especially since that minor difference in stolen bases (and probably wild pitches, etc.) isn't all that difference. Oh well, it's early in the season. Just that the "numbers" imply we should be doing even worse than we are. Wonder about double plays? Maybe something there, but not in any of the games I've been too. Seems about the same.

  3. Ooops, "different" not "difference."

  4. I think the reason the Bulls statistics might be skewed in relation to their record is because they have a decent number of lopsided loses along with a good amount of very close wins. Their average margin of victory is 3 while their margin of defeat is 5.4. If they don't start playing better their record will catch with them and they will more than likely end up a .500 ballclub.
    More stats: DP turned:19; DP hit into: 22
    Bulls Runs scored: 109
    Opponents: 120

  5. I should have noticed that. You're absolutely right about the lopsided losses and close wins. Over time that will even out, but we don't have the big hitters this year (and seem to have trouble playing small ball as well). Thanks for the DP numbers. My guess there was wrong, too. Regression to the mean is gonna get us.