Tuesday, July 10, 2012

All-Star Break: Charts I

While we’re waiting for real baseball to re-start, time to look at some charts.

First of all, how are the Bulls doing in the International League South Division?

click on charts for larger image

Better than they were, but still a ways to go. After Gwinnett fell off it’s perch a couple of weeks ago, Charlotte established itself at 8 games above .500 and has a 3 game lead over Norfolk. The Bulls missed a chance to gain on the Tides and push the Braves deeper in the hole last weekend. They are tied at 6 games below .500 and 7 games back of Charlotte. The Bulls come back from the break with a 4-game series in Charlotte (hint, hint). Standings.

In the runs scored-runs allowed metric the Bulls are in an ever-so-gently-upward slope. That’s good. The Bulls also continue to outperform their Pythagorean Expectation, an indicator of good luck and good relief pitching. As we’ll see in the pitching charts (another day), that’s also good, because the starters need some help. Note: The trend is a 10-game moving average.

How about the Road to .500, WDBB’s hope for the 2012 season?

This is a very demanding challenge for the Bulls. They had done a terrific job of getting back on the path until the last two games in Gwinnett. The math is tough. They have 48 games left in the season (27 at home). They need to win 29 of those games. That is, they need to play .600 ball for the rest of the season.

* * * * * 

Meanwhile, how about that bunch that plays in the bandbox near the bay between Clearwater and Brandon, Florida? That would be the Tampa Bay Rays, the "parent" club of the Durham Bulls, who play in the American League East.

If the Yankees weren’t running away with the division you’d say pretty good. But the Rays have only played 86 games (to the Bulls 92) and are only at the half-way point. The Bulls are 20 games past their season’s halfway point. So, the Rays are definitely in the hunt for the 2012 season. At 4 games above .500 they are doing OK. 

In the runs scored-runs allowed charting, the Rays may be recovering from a pretty disturbing downward path. Rays fans should hope so. As with the Bulls, the Rays are performing above their PE expectation.

No comments:

Post a Comment